ChainUp Cloud Research Institution
At the beginning of New Year, everything seems to be different. Crypt industry experienced unprecedented shock in 2022. No. 3 public chain in TVL failed down suddenly and exchange system with second largest volume quit as well. Lots of brilliant funds and crypt super star from tens of millions of sought after to tens of thousands of spurned. Lifeless society and bleak future disturb each crypt player.
However, from 1st Jan, everything become different. Hunters with a keen sense of smell are corporate with calm capital to start layout in advance. On 12th Jan, it launched new tokens. The price of Bitcoin increase nearly 50% from 16500 to 24000 and also Ethereum units with leading tokens in various fields begin to exert their strength angrily, break the ice. Apt, Solana, High and Ldo increase over 300%, Gala, Imx and Grt increase over 200% as well.
Suddenly, people with empty position were anxiety. They are afraid that they would miss profit because they don’t enter the market. Meanwhile, they are also afraid that they buy in too high price. People with full position are anxiety. They think the points they buy in are not good. They were considering that sell parts of orders to decrease profit. In this case, crypt world with tangle and hesitation begin.
There are three main reasons resulting in recent fluctuation. The first one is motivation of staked ETH due to update of ETH in Shanghai on March. Even through BTC is belief for whole crypt world, ETH promote the application of digital currency to world.The emergence of Smart contract change the ecology of overall chain. Hence, it can be noted that DeFi bring application into block chain world. In lots of new users’ views, ETH even beyond BTC and become the first choice for their belief.
After news of ETH update published, the value of ETH increase deeply from the shadow of Luna. At the same time, upcomming shanghai update is still expected. Staked ETH and profit of users after shanghai update can be withdraw. More users would like to stake after opening liquidity. From the view of data, the stake rate of ETH is still low, only 13.8%, Polygon has 42.2%, TRX has 47.3%. Therefore, there are large space for staked ETH.
The best performance on stake service are Lido, Rocket Pool and Frax. They are directly related parties for shanghai update, but Lido is top tier from the foundation in 2020.
From the view of sub-tokens, it shows that they are facilitators and beneficiaries in area of liquide staking. Staked ETH are raised and also lots of KOL recommend relevant sub-tokens which facilitate the investment from users. Stake ratio of ETH is not too high. We can expect the better performance of ETH in the future. Lido and Rocker pool increase over 200%.
With the increase of price, stake volume of lido raises rapidly as well. The stake volume of Lido has more than $8 billions, larger than MakeDAO, which become project with largest volume of stake in DeFi industry. Such achievements are inseparable from their continuous efforts and the arrival of the wind.
AI area is so brilliant as the performance of stake area. The development of AI has strong relationship with chatGPT of OpenAI. Actually ChatGPT has published online for short time. Some of usres has been used for a long time. The number of users of ChatGPT has exceeded millions in 5 days and 1 billions in 2 months. However, Tiktok spent 9 months achieving this performance and Instagram spent 2 years achieving this performance.
At this stage, ChatGPT not only apply in personal hobby and Q&A, but has applied in business level. Lots of engineers developed program by using chatGPT. Some students complete the academic essay by ChatGPT. Some planners write report and planning by ChatGPT. It can be noted that ChatCPT help us to address several problems except of perception of humanity. Even though it has large limitation and many problems, we cannot deny that it has large growth. At the same period, Google published its competitor ‘Bard AI’ and Baidu demonstrates ERNIE Bot will be test in public on March. So the war related to AI will be began.
The development of Internet company has approached bottleneck and they are looking for new direction. Metaverse, VR and AR are all the test direction for Internet company. Go back to AI of sub-token, the top tier has increased rapidly, including AGIX with over 800% of increase and Fetchai with over 300% of increase.
The third reason is GameFi and Metaverse come back main eyes. Firstly, Changpeng Zhao from Binance presents that metaverse and Highstreet can be corporate with Jay Jou. It is the corporation between Asian super start and crypt super star. It promotes GameFi to top tier again. Also, game project can be received easily and has lots of loyalty users. Some representations last bull market such as Gala, Imx have great bounce after steep fail. However, Highstreet combine with the way from metaverse society and has nice fun, so it be focused on. It can be believed that the popularity of project will be higher after Asian super start join in. Public chain with low gas and high speed after increasing volume can support more great project. High increases nearly 400% and Gala increases roughly 300%.
Besides of those three reasons, there are some there are numerous short orders after FTX breakdown. Lots of users and institutions begin to buy short so that some long orders have opportunities. Some institutions and market makers begin the action of closed long orders. According to the report of Glassnoda, there are more than 85% of futures with short positions liquidating on middle of Jan. In other word, 15% of long orders occupied 85% of short positions asset.
Short orders with more than 5 billions USD are liquidated and are always increasing. At this point, it surpassed the humiliation of 75% of long orders being exploded after the TTX thunderstorm, and the long orders finally took revenge. Meanwhile, it click the bottom of pause for the increasingly fail in half a year.
The society become active and social media shows lots of orders. Users with empty positions are very anxious. The primary thought is avoid the risk but the result is missing opportunity of increase. Social median that buy High, Lido and Gala get millions of profit. Users with full are also anxious. Users are tortured due to the decrease in half a year and the bad news from Luna and FTX. They are doubt that whether sell the orders or not. After all, overall environment is not good. Users in crypt world are not really happy. They think they buy less due to the trend of increase. When the trend is fail, they are tangled whether add positions or not. We can exist when we do great prediction and planning, but it is hard to do. We can look forward to its further performance.