"The whole must be lacking, the extreme must be reversed." From "Lu Shi Chunqiu · Bo Zhi", it means that when things develop to extremes, they will transform in the opposite direction.



This is often misunderstood as metaphysics when the truth is not understood. From cause to effect, cause and effect are historical. In this energy-conserving world, everything that happens for unknown reasons is only because you ignore the undetectable or random inducements.



There are different pushers behind all extreme events, and the ashes after the end of the extreme event will also become the "fuel" needed for the next extreme event.



A large part of the reason why people want to "seek stability" is to reduce the internal complexity of the event system, minimize the irresistible uncertainty, and reduce the probability of the occurrence of "black swan" events as much as possible. But at the same time, the reduction of risk also means the reduction of short-term returns, which is why the characteristics of robust compound returns and index functions are particularly important in investment.