I had the pleasure of working with Joanna Williams, Founder of Since Tomorrow, some time ago when she was a director for Kenneth Cole and I was with Apparel Production, I have been following her LinkedIn updates closely for the past 3 years or so. She consistently provides daily macro analysis on the shifting consumer spending habits, particularly the impact of Shein, Temu, and TikTok on the fashion and retail industry.

For those who don’t have time to conduct their own research, follow her! Joanna’s updates offer a fresh perspective, highlighting how conventional fashion retail has undergone a seismic shift over the past five years due to mobile apps, while top fashion executives continue business as usual, especially ignoring content creators.

For me, it’s mind-boggling to see reports of TEMU spending $2 billion on Facebook ads in 2023 while losing $6 per order. How can other brands possibly compete?

Just last week, I came across Walmart’s latest predictions for 2025. The outlook is bleak, but one surprising insight stood out: their growth in the last quarter of 2024 came from consumers earning $100K or more, far from their typical customer base. This indicates that even affluent consumers are now seeking bargains.

When I read Joanna’s post yesterday: PREDICTIONS, which I'm quoting below for all to see, I felt compelled to share some thoughts based on her post and also quote some of her most impactful statements while adding some notes of my own: 

"If you don't organize around real time trends + community you won't have a business in 3 years" 

Most conventional fashion & retail brands still don’t grasp the importance of community building, even as it becomes increasingly crucial. What is community? How does a brand build one? How can one track performance? Well, in simple terms: Blockchain helps!

"Less ads, more loyalty" 

As I mentioned in my previous post, the pay-per-click advertising model is broken. Companies like Temu are dominating the narrative for the mass market, their ads appear 20 times more often than those of established brands. Meanwhile, brands are failing to properly reward their loyal customers. How does one track loyal customers? How does a brand rewards them? see above: Blockchain helps!

"The Gatekeepers need to be removed asap"

In response to my last post, someone I don't know (that's the beauty of open source) asked a question on my post and my response was to research open source, I explained that it’s time to understand how it works. Interestingly, this person mentioned Allbirds' open-source program M0.0NSHOT Zero, which I hadn’t heard of before. So I had to research and after some research, I discovered just how incredible it is.

I first learned about open source while working in web3, where it’s a common practice in coding. In fact, I’m currently collaborating with Alejandro Adon aka Wasabi a talented web3 developer who’s building a decentralized community to empower farmers, and he’s made his code open source so that anyone can replicate it. This approach aligns with what Joanna said about the need to remove gatekeepers, it's time to think outside the box literally, pay attention to new technology and research alternative ways of doing things.

Here’s the link to Allbirds’ M0.0NSHOT Zero program. Scroll to the third headline, "Sharing The Secret Sauce", and you’ll find their Recipe B0.0K, a 26-page open-sourced toolkit detailing how they created a net-zero carbon shoe. It’s an open invitation to the industry to copy their approach because, as they put it, "when it comes to reversing climate change, copycats aren’t just welcome, they’re essential."

It’s time for many executives to go back to the drawing board and realize that how we got here isn’t how we move forward. There was a time, when there were no websites, now every brand has a website but no loyal community. Pay per click is not the way.

Sincerely, 

@lawrenceroman
ps> the image in the headline is from the All Birds website.

Joanna's original post: 

PREDICTION

There will be an explosion of people joining the creator economy this year to build their brands

We cut 172,017 jobs in Feb, the highest monthly total since the pandemic

It was also the largest # of Feb job cuts since 2009

What did the kids do last time they were bored in the house, in the house bored?

This time they have world building tools where they don't have to show their face

We all know the federal jobs loss # was 62,242

But did you know retail was nearly 40k?

36% of 25-34 year olds r prioritizing personal growth over job search

And in what I believe is a completely related data point:

Dropshipping UGC content is up 132%

A staggering 1.6M people creating videos
At 16.3B views, it feels like a trend
The #1 country is America of course b/c see above stats

If u don’t organize around real time trends + community u won’t have a business in 3 years

Soon she’ll clone herself & send her bots to make her movies

Btw, we are launching 5 creator TV shows next week in stealth :)

You've got to be a stock trader open 24/7/365 just like the Nasdaq reported they would be this morning

Yesterday someone remarked I’m like the guy from "The Big Short"

Veeery appropriate b/c I 100% believe corporate digital illiteracy will kill U.S. retail

Everyone in the middle will be squeezed out b/c Silicon Valley will fill the internet with synthetic content & data and charge taxes b/c they own the infrastructure

In soccer, IDA Sports went from no NWSL players in 2023 to 11 in 2024 while TRIPLING revenues year over year in 2023 and 2024

READ THAT AGAIN

Harnessing AI isn’t just about technology - it’s about unleashing unprecedented potential/growth

Where Nike is trying to win at all costs, On connects w/a larger audience: regular people

On’s softer approach is tapping into the needs of Gen Z consumers like mental hygiene...

TikTok demonstrated a new way of shopping to the US retail and ecommerce ecosystem, but the job is far from done

The whole ecosystem is in early days and a ton of effort is needed to reach the same level of maturity as China

And it all comes down to the real time actions of the people who run the internet and commerce

Hint: the 90% of people who make all purchasing decisions

It can be difficult to make strategic decisions based on data when they are just personas split across a variety of platforms and not pulled into one central view to optimize

Scientists made a ‘Woolly Mouse’ in a quest to resurrect mammoths

Yet we lack a general-purpose framework to do resurrect retail

All of retail would do well to adopt Costco Wholesale's retail media strategy

Less ads... more loyalty

agentic AI only works if you know real people and their reel time needs

You are now competing not just against other brands and creators - but against

EVERY SINGLE PIECE OF CONTENT

Keep in mind China just released what they say is the "world-first fully autonomous AI agent" Manus...

The gatekeepers need to be removed asap