Hello everyone,

I know I have been staying awfully quiet over twitter and medium space. I attempted to make another post couple week ago, then triggered reddit bot again, got pissed off and did not write for a while. It is also true that since my last post, overall space atmosphere turned bearish (I did make a reddit post about this which received some flack) and Jewel has not been doing well price wise. We have been bearing through the crypto winter with no real exciting DFK news for the past 2 months. No QOL updates, airdrops delayed or rewards been minuscule, but let’s not worry about it in this post.

As Spring approaches there are some signs of hope. Now we finally know the launch date for Crystalvale and has some basic information on token/farm structure. We will be revisiting what has been said on their document/medium/AMA to speculate on how the first weeks of CV will look like.

I want to remind everyone that I cannot reliably predict the price of Crystal. As we go further into discussion, it will be apparent that we should be expecting a huge volatility of the token price at launch. We will discuss some of the safer and riskier strategies later in the article.

Disclaimer: again NFA. Most of this is going to be plotting numbers and data that already exist and making some wild predictions out of them.

Farming structure

This will be the most important part of CV at launch for sure. As mentioned in their documents and roadmap, CV will not launch at the current capacity of Serendale. This means that the current Serendale features such as questing and hero trading/summoning will not be available at launch. Hero marketplace and summoning plays an important part of token usage and deflationary pressure therefore this fact should be kept in mind at all times.

The first most important part of the farming structure will be the available LPs. As for right now, we are almost certain that following options will be available at launch: Jewel single staking and Jewel-Crystal pair.

It is not clear if other pairs will be available at launch. These are native pairs with some of the core assets in the ecosystem. For Crystalvale, these should be the following: Crystal-Avax (most likely to receive dual farming reward), Crystal-stablecoin, Crystal-BTC and Crystal-ETH. There certainly is a concern with other players front running these pairs if not available at launch, therefore my guess is on the side that these should be available from the start. However, according to the docs we may see very limited options in the beginning.

Reviewing the emission rate

Another important part of understanding the DFK power tokens is the emission. You should have seen “remember the old days” DFK screenshots when the APR used to be in 6 digits. Most of DFK early success is credited towards creating a sustainable tokenomics while maintaining a degen level APR through their linear locking system. Let’s gather the numbers from the official docs.

As you can see from the screenshot, couple things stand out.

We can conclude that Crystal is more deflationary compared to Jewel for these reasons, and APR should reflect this accordingly. We could see as low as x8 less APR compared to Serendale APR, and since single staking will be heavily diluted due to its risk averse nature compared to LP, its APR should be much lower. We may not see degen level APRs like we did at Serendale launch.

Who them be dumping Crystal

The other important aspect of understanding CV tokenomics is the circulating supply at launch. This is difficult to compare to Serendale for couple reason.

We know for sure that not everyone is going to hodl their airdropped crystals. The plan for crystal airdrop announced at the beginning of the year created a huge surge in demand for Jewel which was basically got front ran during middle of January when locked Jewel trading became available (gave whales a chance to exit). Depending on the price of entry, some of us are down more than 50% for hodling Jewel through the snapshot period. I predict that there is a large demand for exiting with profits from airdropped tokens.

Predicting initial circulating supply for Crystal will be difficult. Let’s start with airdropped amount.

You can see roughly 2 millions Crystals will be airdropped, which only accounts for 1.5% of the total supply.

Let’s look at Jewel supply at launch.

We can see that 10 million was pre minted but only 2 million was provided for liquidity. 5 million is likely the payout to the team in linear fashion.

Following the similar path, some of the crystals should be pre-minted as they will be given out for questing on CV. Couple thoughts to consider

We can predict that Crystal initial circulating supply could be higher than that of Jewel, but this is at the mercy of the DFK team.

Connecting them dots

Ok, I have been talking a lot of numbers and pointers that at this point it could sound all gibberish. Let’s gather our thoughts and put them into a conclusion.

Given these points, and if they turn out to be the reality, we could see early dumping of the Crystal token. There are couple different strategies out of this.

Once again, feedbacks are appreciated. Happy farming.