Since May 2022, I have warned Crypto is Easy subscribers about bitcoin’s drop to $14,000. It’s the most realistic, sensible, natural technical price level in history. In the classic “anatomy of a bubble” model of markets, bubbles need to go back to where they start before they “return to the mean.” See the circle below:Look to the rightTo get there, bitcoin’s price needs to go back to at least $14,000, where we saw the start of the 2020–2022 bubble (not the many smaller bubbles within that ti...

Since May 2022, I have warned Crypto is Easy subscribers about bitcoin’s drop to $14,000. It’s the most realistic, sensible, natural technical price level in history. In the classic “anatomy of a bubble” model of markets, bubbles need to go back to where they start before they “return to the mean.” See the circle below:Look to the rightTo get there, bitcoin’s price needs to go back to at least $14,000, where we saw the start of the 2020–2022 bubble (not the many smaller bubbles within that ti...

“A new idea doesn’t triumph by convincing its opponents of its merits, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” —Max Planck (paraphrased)Science advances one funeral at a time. Why not finance, too? Sometimes, a new idea is too compelling to ignore. Too many people think they can make money from it. For years, my wealth management company did not approve of cryptocurrency as an investment. Whenever the crypto market went up a lot...

“A new idea doesn’t triumph by convincing its opponents of its merits, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” —Max Planck (paraphrased)Science advances one funeral at a time. Why not finance, too? Sometimes, a new idea is too compelling to ignore. Too many people think they can make money from it. For years, my wealth management company did not approve of cryptocurrency as an investment. Whenever the crypto market went up a lot...

On December 27, 2022, the US government charged well-known crypto exploiter Avi Eisenberg with commodities fraud and market manipulation for his attack on Mango Markets, a DeFi platform. Maybe posting your crimes on Twitter is not the best idea? While I can never condone somebody knowingly committing a crime, I’d like to propose we make Avi’s actions legal for DeFi protocols (not legacy finance) -- with a catch. A proving ground for financial experimentsIf you want to have robust, automated, ...

On December 27, 2022, the US government charged well-known crypto exploiter Avi Eisenberg with commodities fraud and market manipulation for his attack on Mango Markets, a DeFi platform. Maybe posting your crimes on Twitter is not the best idea? While I can never condone somebody knowingly committing a crime, I’d like to propose we make Avi’s actions legal for DeFi protocols (not legacy finance) -- with a catch. A proving ground for financial experimentsIf you want to have robust, automated, ...

Once bitcoin’s price went below its 2017 peak, the naysayers came out of the woodworks. This cycle is different, the models are broken, the charts don’t work anymore, and a global depression will crush everything. Sure. “It can get worse” is always a great way to think about the downturns in this market. That way, your mind can focus on what other shoes might fall, what will push the market down, and what will make your situation worse. Certainly, that covers broken data models and abrupt cha...

Once bitcoin’s price went below its 2017 peak, the naysayers came out of the woodworks. This cycle is different, the models are broken, the charts don’t work anymore, and a global depression will crush everything. Sure. “It can get worse” is always a great way to think about the downturns in this market. That way, your mind can focus on what other shoes might fall, what will push the market down, and what will make your situation worse. Certainly, that covers broken data models and abrupt cha...

In Q3 of 2022, bitcoin outperformed most financial assets. Look at its competition from July 1 to September 30:S&P 500 (SPX) - down 6%NASDAQ (IXIC) - down 5%Russell 2000 (IWM) - down 4%20-year US Treasuries (TLT) - down 12%Oil (WTI) - down 27%Gold - down 8%Silver - down 4.5%Euro - down 6%Corn - up 8.5%Bitcoin - up 1%Not good but better than those other investments. “The corn” beat everything except actual corn. I know, I know. It’s only one quarter. Q1 and Q2 sucked. Q4 could do much worse. Y...

In Q3 of 2022, bitcoin outperformed most financial assets. Look at its competition from July 1 to September 30:S&P 500 (SPX) - down 6%NASDAQ (IXIC) - down 5%Russell 2000 (IWM) - down 4%20-year US Treasuries (TLT) - down 12%Oil (WTI) - down 27%Gold - down 8%Silver - down 4.5%Euro - down 6%Corn - up 8.5%Bitcoin - up 1%Not good but better than those other investments. “The corn” beat everything except actual corn. I know, I know. It’s only one quarter. Q1 and Q2 sucked. Q4 could do much worse. Y...

I got another email from a guy who says he knows the five altcoins that will EXPLODE in 2023. Sounds tempting, but short-duration government bonds and cash deposits are giving you the best deal you’ve gotten in a generation (at least the last 15 years). Are you sure you want to fool around with five random financial experiments in a market plagued by scams, frauds, and failures? Before you answer that question, consider your alternatives. Equities remain overvalued against all historical benc...

I got another email from a guy who says he knows the five altcoins that will EXPLODE in 2023. Sounds tempting, but short-duration government bonds and cash deposits are giving you the best deal you’ve gotten in a generation (at least the last 15 years). Are you sure you want to fool around with five random financial experiments in a market plagued by scams, frauds, and failures? Before you answer that question, consider your alternatives. Equities remain overvalued against all historical benc...

For some people, it's not enough that bitcoin’s price is at a historic low. They need a different reason to put money into this market. A key level on a trading chart. Some macro or technical signal. A leading indicator. A key milestone in some data model or cycle theory. The halving. World peace. Others think we need a new story to attract new buyers. So many people have been burned by crypto crashes, scams, fraud, recession, and losses that the old narratives don’t work anymore. Bitcoi...

For some people, it's not enough that bitcoin’s price is at a historic low. They need a different reason to put money into this market. A key level on a trading chart. Some macro or technical signal. A leading indicator. A key milestone in some data model or cycle theory. The halving. World peace. Others think we need a new story to attract new buyers. So many people have been burned by crypto crashes, scams, fraud, recession, and losses that the old narratives don’t work anymore. Bitcoi...

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE), the ultimate memecoin and the personification of everything “real” investors hate about crypto, went up 118% this week. On cue, crypto bros hollered “the bull market’s back!” while crypto critics rolled their eyes.What do you meme?Some people might shrug off the latest pump as typical crypto shenanigans, but when most government currencies trade like shitcoins and most governments have no feasible way to pay off the debts they’ve accrued, it’s hard to tell which ...

The price of Dogecoin (DOGE), the ultimate memecoin and the personification of everything “real” investors hate about crypto, went up 118% this week. On cue, crypto bros hollered “the bull market’s back!” while crypto critics rolled their eyes.What do you meme?Some people might shrug off the latest pump as typical crypto shenanigans, but when most government currencies trade like shitcoins and most governments have no feasible way to pay off the debts they’ve accrued, it’s hard to tell which ...

Celsius, FTX, Genesis, insider hacks, and rug-pulls. People lost so much money with crypto this year. Nowhere near as much as the world lost in legacy financial markets, but it seems to hit harder with crypto. So much fraud and incompetence. So many shenanigans and scams. It’s one thing to lose money because of your government’s fiscal and monetary policies or the collective decisions of corporations, investment firms, and pension funds. It’s another thing to lose money because of charlatans ...

Celsius, FTX, Genesis, insider hacks, and rug-pulls. People lost so much money with crypto this year. Nowhere near as much as the world lost in legacy financial markets, but it seems to hit harder with crypto. So much fraud and incompetence. So many shenanigans and scams. It’s one thing to lose money because of your government’s fiscal and monetary policies or the collective decisions of corporations, investment firms, and pension funds. It’s another thing to lose money because of charlatans ...

If you’ve subscribed to my newsletter, Crypto is Easy, you know that I’m more tortoise, less hare. Steady persistence rather than bursts of frenetic activity. Marathons, not sprints. Most people are here to make as much money as possible as quickly as they can. What’s the next 100x altcoin? Is the bottom in? What on-chain data can predict the future? I’m here to squeeze the most juice out of the market. Buy low and grow. Sell only when the market forces you to do so (hopefully not at all). Bu...

If you’ve subscribed to my newsletter, Crypto is Easy, you know that I’m more tortoise, less hare. Steady persistence rather than bursts of frenetic activity. Marathons, not sprints. Most people are here to make as much money as possible as quickly as they can. What’s the next 100x altcoin? Is the bottom in? What on-chain data can predict the future? I’m here to squeeze the most juice out of the market. Buy low and grow. Sell only when the market forces you to do so (hopefully not at all). Bu...

As promised in my last post, “Time to Buy Altcoins?” here’s the first in a series of articles about altcoins. By now, you’ve probably heard about the “bitcoin dominance” chart. That chart shows bitcoin’s percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It looks like this:BTC.D chart on TradingView, January 9, 2023Most analysts use this to trade bitcoins against altcoins or identify trends that make it advantageous to buy or sell altcoins. When the line goes down, altcoins dominat...

As promised in my last post, “Time to Buy Altcoins?” here’s the first in a series of articles about altcoins. By now, you’ve probably heard about the “bitcoin dominance” chart. That chart shows bitcoin’s percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It looks like this:BTC.D chart on TradingView, January 9, 2023Most analysts use this to trade bitcoins against altcoins or identify trends that make it advantageous to buy or sell altcoins. When the line goes down, altcoins dominat...

On the heels of FTX’s demise, in advance of the potential collapse of USDT Tether, amidst the tightest monetary environment in a generation, staring at a looming global recession, we brace ourselves for the end of the biggest pump-and-dump in history, a rug-pull of epic proportions. Did you think I was talking about bitcoin? No. I’ll get to that later. In the first two decades of the 21st Century, the world’s central banks pumped outrageous amounts of money into the financial markets. Look at...

On the heels of FTX’s demise, in advance of the potential collapse of USDT Tether, amidst the tightest monetary environment in a generation, staring at a looming global recession, we brace ourselves for the end of the biggest pump-and-dump in history, a rug-pull of epic proportions. Did you think I was talking about bitcoin? No. I’ll get to that later. In the first two decades of the 21st Century, the world’s central banks pumped outrageous amounts of money into the financial markets. Look at...