Eth is outperforming.

Over the last 5 years, ETH has outperformed clearly, consistently, and dramatically.

This chart shows ETH’s outperformance over all other cryptocurrencies, excluding bitcoin and the top 3 stablecoins:

This graph is actually biased against ETH, because it shows the total market cap, not real performance. That means it doesn’t account for the inflation of other cryptocurrencies, and includes new token launches that an average investor wouldn’t gain from. It also includes the growth in market cap of other stablecoins that aren’t in the top 3; another thing investors wouldn’t profit from. So, in reality this trend is steeper.

Not only that, but ETH has outperformed in both bull markets and bear markets. It’s also outperformed relative to bitcoin, which is a more cyclical outperformance, but just as clear.

So why aren’t you buying ETH?

I’ve heard a lot of people say things like ‘ETH is bad, therefore it will underperform’.

This argument relies on two assumptions:

1. You’re accurately assessing how bad ETH is. From my experience, I’ve found that very few people fully understand Ethereum. Most people aren’t aware of basic parts of the roadmap like proto-danksharding or the verge, most are still unaware of the rollup-centric roadmap (4 years later) and simply say something like ‘ETH has high gas fees’. Even myself, I struggle to keep up with understanding Ethereum. It is incredibly complex, and I wouldn’t dismiss it without at least 100+ hours of study. Its outperformance would suggest it’s clearly doing something right.

2. Being bad means it will underperform. This is perhaps the easiest to prove wrong; it’s clearly outperformed consistently, over many years. Even if you’re convinced ethereum is bad, it’s clear that doesn’t matter. Markets don’t reward good things; value usually accrues to the biggest protocol, not the best.

Here’s a few other objections for why you’re not buying ethereum:

‘Ethereum is too big, smaller coins gain more’

This isn’t true; value accrues to the big protocols, and small coins are far more likely to go down.

This is only true over the short term in a bull market, where smaller coins are simply more volatile.

‘Ethereum is done growing! The real gains are elsewhere’

The industry is growing at an insane pace. Over the next decades, it will probably grow to 100x the size it is now. In what world is Ethereum done growing?

Many indicators show we are in the very early stages of web3. ETH has most of its growth ahead of it.

‘I just want to gamble on a quick moonshot’

That seems like a valid reason not to buy ETH. Gambling and investing are different, and ETH probably isn’t suited to gambling - maybe ETH options or futures would be better?

‘I’m not investing for the long-term, I have a 1 year timeframe’

That’s also a valid reason - there are no guarantees about the short term, ever, and the ‘just buy ETH’ strategy is a long-term strategy.

But also, why have such a short timeframe???? We’re witnessing one of the great technological revolutions of our lifetime. All you have to do is buy and hold, with a bit of patience.

‘Just because it’s outperformed in the past doesn’t mean it will keep outperforming!’

Correct. But it is still outperforming - the trend is still intact.

By all means change your mind when the trend breaks - I probably will. But not before then. This is a strong 5+ year trend - it’s not going to break easily on this timeframe. I’d argue it’s still probably in its earliest phases, given how few people seem to realise it!

‘There are better opportunities than ETH’

Yes, there are. But when ETH is clearly outperforming, you have to recognise that most people are underperforming ETH. You’d probably like to think you’re not ‘most people’, but then everyone thinks that!

The market will humble you. Just buy ETH!

Eth is outperforming.

Over the last 5 years, ETH has outperformed clearly, consistently, and dramatically.

This chart shows ETH’s outperformance over all other cryptocurrencies, excluding bitcoin and the top 3 stablecoins:

This graph is actually biased against ETH, because it shows the total market cap, not real performance. That means it doesn’t account for the inflation of other cryptocurrencies, and includes new token launches that an average investor wouldn’t gain from. It also includes the growth in market cap of other stablecoins that aren’t in the top 3; another thing investors wouldn’t profit from. So, in reality this trend is steeper.

Not only that, but ETH has outperformed in both bull markets and bear markets. It’s also outperformed relative to bitcoin, which is a more cyclical outperformance, but just as clear.

So why aren’t you buying ETH?

I’ve heard a lot of people say things like ‘ETH is bad, therefore it will underperform’.

This argument relies on two assumptions:

1. You’re accurately assessing how bad ETH is. From my experience, I’ve found that very few people fully understand Ethereum. Most people aren’t aware of basic parts of the roadmap like proto-danksharding or the verge, most are still unaware of the rollup-centric roadmap (4 years later) and simply say something like ‘ETH has high gas fees’. Even myself, I struggle to keep up with understanding Ethereum. It is incredibly complex, and I wouldn’t dismiss it without at least 100+ hours of study. Its outperformance would suggest it’s clearly doing something right.

2. Being bad means it will underperform. This is perhaps the easiest to prove wrong; it’s clearly outperformed consistently, over many years. Even if you’re convinced ethereum is bad, it’s clear that doesn’t matter. Markets don’t reward good things; value usually accrues to the biggest protocol, not the best.

Here’s a few other objections for why you’re not buying ethereum:

‘Ethereum is too big, smaller coins gain more’

This isn’t true; value accrues to the big protocols, and small coins are far more likely to go down.

This is only true over the short term in a bull market, where smaller coins are simply more volatile.

‘Ethereum is done growing! The real gains are elsewhere’

The industry is growing at an insane pace. Over the next decades, it will probably grow to 100x the size it is now. In what world is Ethereum done growing?

Many indicators show we are in the very early stages of web3. ETH has most of its growth ahead of it.

‘I just want to gamble on a quick moonshot’

That seems like a valid reason not to buy ETH. Gambling and investing are different, and ETH probably isn’t suited to gambling - maybe ETH options or futures would be better?

‘I’m not investing for the long-term, I have a 1 year timeframe’

That’s also a valid reason - there are no guarantees about the short term, ever, and the ‘just buy ETH’ strategy is a long-term strategy.

But also, why have such a short timeframe???? We’re witnessing one of the great technological revolutions of our lifetime. All you have to do is buy and hold, with a bit of patience.

‘Just because it’s outperformed in the past doesn’t mean it will keep outperforming!’

Correct. But it is still outperforming - the trend is still intact.

By all means change your mind when the trend breaks - I probably will. But not before then. This is a strong 5+ year trend - it’s not going to break easily on this timeframe. I’d argue it’s still probably in its earliest phases, given how few people seem to realise it!

‘There are better opportunities than ETH’

Yes, there are. But when ETH is clearly outperforming, you have to recognise that most people are underperforming ETH. You’d probably like to think you’re not ‘most people’, but then everyone thinks that!

The market will humble you. Just buy ETH!