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Dec 10

Open interest rate cuts, but the direction of the market is not determined by the rate cut itself

At 2:00 a.m. Singapore time this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will deliver its final rate decision of the year. According to CME FedWatch, the market sees a 25 bps rate cut as almost guaranteed, with odds above 85%. If it plays out as expected, this would mark the Fed’s third consecutive cut since September, bringing the federal funds rate down to the 3.5%–3.75% range.For retail investors used to the “rate cuts = bullish” narrative, this might look like good news on the surface. But here’s t...

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