认为2022年比特币将跌落神坛，价格会到1w美金以下。

Goldilocks conditions are ending and the liquidity tide is receding which will disproportionately harm overvalued asset classes and speculative areas of the market including cryptocurrencies

• 金发姑娘周期正在结束，流动性浪潮正在消退，将不成比例地损害估值过高的资产和包括加密货币在内的投机市场。

• 金发姑娘原则：在经济学是指——经济的高速增长、却拥有比较低的通货膨胀率，让这一段时间维持得越长越好，才能最大化经济效益。 在这种时候，市场可能会采取温和的金融政策。 而金发姑娘市场是指：在经济繁荣中，消费的价格和市场自动产生的价格之间，消费的价格应该贴近平均值。

Bitcoin Spot ETF

• spot ETF 可能会在2022年被批准，为大量的加密新手投资者提供基础设施。

• 虽然2021年 bitcoin期货ETF已被批准，但由于作为金融衍生品，它具有较大的风险、且合约展期的成本较大，对更多的新手并不友好。

• 灰度准备将它的信托转变为 bitcoin spot etf

  • Grayscale Investments has filed to convert its bitcoin trust, which is the world’s biggest bitcoin fund, into a spot ETF.

多链竞争：bitcoin的市值占比随着加密市场的增长逐渐降低，且到2022年底，它的市值将是 所有智能合约总市值的一半；智能合约链将在区块链行业中扮演越来越重要的角色，如：solana, polkadot, cardano等

• “This time next year I predict that bitcoin’s market cap will be half the combined cap of smart contract coins” like ethereum and solana, Alexander added, “or even less.”

DeFi和Dao 在2022年仍是加密世界增长最快的领域。

• Emerging crypto developments such as decentralized finance and decentralized autonomous organizations are “likely to be the highest growth areas of crypto,”

• DeFi的目的是 重构传统金融市场以去除中间商；

• Dao的目的是 一种新型的互联网公司组织

2021年是监管发力的一年，中国政府全面禁止加密货币相关的活动，美国政府打击市场中的某方面。分析师预计2022年监管仍是行业的关键方面。

• “2022 will be a big year on the regulatory front, no doubt,” Luno’s Ayyar said. “The interest from various governments, and especially the U.S., to bring regulation into the crypto space has not been higher.”

稳定币将是2022年监管重点关注的一个领域，且USDT将会被重点关注，因为对他抵押物的价值能否支撑其发行的USDT存疑。

• Tether, the world’s biggest stablecoin, is particularly controversial as there are concerns about whether it holds enough assets in its reserves to justify its peg to the dollar.

• 传统金融中，当住房和抵押贷款的抵押品受到猜疑时，风险偏好将会被重新定价

  • People remember all too well when the collateral behind the housing and mortgage crises became suspect and risk appetites repriced aggressively.

defi领域可能也会面临监管.

• Meanwhile, regulators have also begun scrutinizing the DeFi space. Earlier this month, central bank umbrella group the Bank for International Settlements called for the regulation of DeFi.

认为2022年比特币将跌落神坛，价格会到1w美金以下。

Goldilocks conditions are ending and the liquidity tide is receding which will disproportionately harm overvalued asset classes and speculative areas of the market including cryptocurrencies

• 金发姑娘周期正在结束，流动性浪潮正在消退，将不成比例地损害估值过高的资产和包括加密货币在内的投机市场。

• 金发姑娘原则：在经济学是指——经济的高速增长、却拥有比较低的通货膨胀率，让这一段时间维持得越长越好，才能最大化经济效益。 在这种时候，市场可能会采取温和的金融政策。 而金发姑娘市场是指：在经济繁荣中，消费的价格和市场自动产生的价格之间，消费的价格应该贴近平均值。

Bitcoin Spot ETF

• spot ETF 可能会在2022年被批准，为大量的加密新手投资者提供基础设施。

• 虽然2021年 bitcoin期货ETF已被批准，但由于作为金融衍生品，它具有较大的风险、且合约展期的成本较大，对更多的新手并不友好。

• 灰度准备将它的信托转变为 bitcoin spot etf

  • Grayscale Investments has filed to convert its bitcoin trust, which is the world’s biggest bitcoin fund, into a spot ETF.

多链竞争：bitcoin的市值占比随着加密市场的增长逐渐降低，且到2022年底，它的市值将是 所有智能合约总市值的一半；智能合约链将在区块链行业中扮演越来越重要的角色，如：solana, polkadot, cardano等

• “This time next year I predict that bitcoin’s market cap will be half the combined cap of smart contract coins” like ethereum and solana, Alexander added, “or even less.”

DeFi和Dao 在2022年仍是加密世界增长最快的领域。

• Emerging crypto developments such as decentralized finance and decentralized autonomous organizations are “likely to be the highest growth areas of crypto,”

• DeFi的目的是 重构传统金融市场以去除中间商；

• Dao的目的是 一种新型的互联网公司组织

2021年是监管发力的一年，中国政府全面禁止加密货币相关的活动，美国政府打击市场中的某方面。分析师预计2022年监管仍是行业的关键方面。

• “2022 will be a big year on the regulatory front, no doubt,” Luno’s Ayyar said. “The interest from various governments, and especially the U.S., to bring regulation into the crypto space has not been higher.”

稳定币将是2022年监管重点关注的一个领域，且USDT将会被重点关注，因为对他抵押物的价值能否支撑其发行的USDT存疑。

• Tether, the world’s biggest stablecoin, is particularly controversial as there are concerns about whether it holds enough assets in its reserves to justify its peg to the dollar.

• 传统金融中，当住房和抵押贷款的抵押品受到猜疑时，风险偏好将会被重新定价

  • People remember all too well when the collateral behind the housing and mortgage crises became suspect and risk appetites repriced aggressively.

defi领域可能也会面临监管.

• Meanwhile, regulators have also begun scrutinizing the DeFi space. Earlier this month, central bank umbrella group the Bank for International Settlements called for the regulation of DeFi.