Recent talks have focused on the possibility of a prolonged economic downturn comparable to 2008's.

2008 was a challenging year for many people. But 2008 and the three years that followed turned out to be a golden age for startups. 2007 marked the introduction of Apple's iPhone, while 2008 saw the debut of the company's app store. In 2009, a wave of outstanding founders emerged.

The majority of today's most popular mobile applications, including Uber, Venmo, Snap, and Instagram, were developed by startups formed between 2009 and 2011, such as Snap, Instagram, and Venmo.

In perspective, this age was powered by three significant trends: social media, cloud computing, and the explosion of smartphones.

The key concept is that product and financial cycles evolve mostly independently of one another. The Nasdaq index is displayed at the top of the graph as a rough proxy for financial sentiment. The financial outlook varies unpredictably and occasionally drastically. The following row displays the years in which iconic companies or products were founded. The majority of the timing is determined by product cycles, which are represented on the bottom row.

Financial cycles tend to be less predictable and more unpredictable than product cycles. In the incubation period, enthusiasts investigate ideas and create products that are mostly utilized by other enthusiasts. In 1990, for instance, there were real attempts to manufacture smartphones. Smartphones continued to develop during the next 15 years, but it wasn't until the introduction of the iPhone that they entered the boom phase. When the perfect combination of technology, skill, and community knowledge is achieved, the growth phase begins. It is powered by a feedback loop between infrastructure and applications that reinforces itself.

As the iPhone evolved, for instance, better applications became possible. Better apps helped drive iPhone sales, allowing Apple to invest more money, which in turn enabled the development of even better apps. The tech business has changed drastically since 2008. The internet is dominated by a few of tech giants who hold significant economic and cultural power.

Maybe cryptography and AI will rule the next cycle. A critical mass of technology, talent, and community knowledge has been reached. If an economic downturn is approaching, there are tactical lessons to be learned from 2008, such as saving capital and maintaining long-term focus. However, the most important lesson is to ignore distractions and maintain a singular focus on the product cycle.