OverviewPrediction markets have a very interesting history. Not sure if this is the first that they were ever written about but Robin Hanson is generally seen as the father of prediction markets. He first wrote about them in Idea Futures in which he describes how policy makers should turn to betting markets rather than experts for decision making (later this became Futarchy). Here is a list of many more Hanson publications. A few years after Hanson’s initial Idea Futures post multiple big cor...