Since this year, a series of intensive policies to stabilize the property market have further boosted confidence in the real estate market.

On April 15, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that in March 2022, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of commercial housing decreased month on month, the number of cities decreased, and the number of cities decreased year on year increased; The sales price of commercial housing in each line of cities stabilized month on month, with a year-on-year decrease or decrease in increase.

Among them, the month on month increase of new house prices in first tier cities narrowed in March, the second tier cities continued to be flat, and the new house prices in third tier cities still decreased, but the decline narrowed. This also reflects the overall stabilization of house prices.

Since 2022, the real estate credit policy has been continuously optimized, the interest rate of personal mortgage loans has been declining, and the approval time has also been shortened. Under the background of “one city, one policy”, more than 70 cities have issued various policies to stabilize the property market this year. Affected by this, the real estate market warmed up in March due to seasonal factors. This has also become an important background for the recovery of house prices.

Analysts pointed out that the external environment may affect the market repair process, but under the existing policy tone, the overall recovery trend of the market will not change. This will also continue to bring benefits to house prices.

The second-hand housing market took the lead in warming up

The decrease in the number of cities with declining house prices and the increase in the number of cities with rising house prices are one of the important characteristics of the trend of house prices in 70 cities in March.

Data show that in March this year, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses decreased month on month in 38 and 45 cities respectively, 2 and 12 less than that of the previous month; There were 29 and 21 cities where prices rose month on month, an increase of 2 and 11 over the previous month.

It is not difficult to see that while the overall price is warming, the rebound of second-hand housing prices is stronger than that of new housing. Analysts pointed out that this is because the price of second-hand houses is less limited by the “price limit order” and is more sensitive to market changes.

Since the beginning of this year, the real estate market has been slowly warming up, among which the recovery of the second-hand housing market is more obvious. According to the data of the shell Research Institute, in the first quarter of this year, the trading volume of second-hand houses in 50 hot cities increased by about 7% month on month. Among them, it rebounded continuously in February and March, with a month on month growth rate of more than 40% in March. “The trading volume in March returned to the level of last July”.

The factors supporting the recovery of the market mainly lie in the policy level. On the one hand, since the end of last year, the real estate credit policy has been continuously optimized. Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said on April 14 that in March, due to the weakening of market demand, banks in more than 100 cities across the country have independently reduced individual mortgage interest rates according to market changes and their own business conditions, with an average reduction of 20 to 60 basis points.

According to the monitoring of the shell Research Institute, in March this year, the interest rate of the first house loan and the second house loan in 103 key cities was 5.34% and 5.60%, respectively 30 and 31 basis points higher than that in December last year. Among them, the month on month decline in March was 13 and 15 basis points respectively, the largest monthly decline since 2019.

In terms of lending cycle, the average lending cycle of 103 cities in March was about one month, close to the fastest speed in the third quarter of 2020. At present, nearly 50% of cities have a lending cycle of less than one month, and 19 cities have a lending cycle of less than 20 days.

On the other hand, under the idea of “one city, one policy”, many cities have introduced measures to stabilize the property market. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of March, more than 50 cities had issued relevant policies to optimize the real estate market environment this year, mainly including reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the housing loan interest rate, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, increasing the introduction of talents, issuing house purchase subsidies, and supporting rigid demand and improving demand at the same time.

In April, similar attempts continued. So far, more than 70 cities have introduced policies to stabilize the property market this year.

The effect of these actions can not be ignored. For example, second tier cities such as Zhengzhou, Harbin and Fuzhou all issued policies to optimize the real estate market environment in March this year. In that month, the decline of second-hand housing prices in these three cities narrowed by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points month on month. In addition, the decline in house prices in some third tier cities has narrowed, which is also considered to be due to the introduction of policies to stabilize the real estate market.

The property market is still in the “repair period”

Affected by external factors, the rise of house prices in first tier cities fell. In March this year, the sales price of new commercial housing in first tier cities increased by 0.3% month on month, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Second hand housing prices rose 0.4% month on month, down 0.1 percentage points. Among them, compared with February, the price of new houses in Guangzhou changed from up to down, and Beijing and Shanghai also narrowed; In terms of second-hand housing, only the increase in Beijing has expanded, and the increase has narrowed or the decrease has expanded in the other three cities.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the overall month on month rise of house prices in first tier cities fell mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. This factor also led to weak overall market expectations and weak market repair.

“There are two internal reasons for the weak market expectation: first, the current epidemic has repeatedly added more uncertainty to domestic economic growth, and the reduction of residents’ expected income has led to the reduction of residents’ risk preference; second, although the transaction volume of second-hand housing has improved, it is still at a historical low, the sales of new housing market has not improved significantly, and the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises has not been effectively alleviated, which has exacerbated the wait-and-see mood in the market.” Xu Xiaole said.

Data released by several institutions show that in the first quarter of this year, the scale of new housing transactions in hot cities decreased by about 40% year-on-year. There is no real “little spring” in the property market.

The relevant person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in Beijing pointed out to the reporter of the 21st Century Business Herald that after the Spring Festival this year, the viewing volume of the company’s project has picked up, but the customer’s purchase intention is not strong, resulting in a decline in the overall conversion rate of the project. The source believes that “the purchasing power of customers has been affected, and the policy support is not strong enough.”

The source pointed out that the current market is still in the bottom repair period. Both buyers and sellers have a certain degree of game, and both look forward to the continued release of benefits at the policy level.

Most institutions believe that more cities will introduce relevant policies in the future in the direction of supporting reasonable demand and optimizing the real estate market environment. On April 11 and 12, Suzhou and Nanjing successively issued documents,