Forget the tech, forget the tools, and forget the "rules" for a second. Look in the mirror.

System Reliability and The Adaptive Dilemma

These are the two concepts that you will want to understand to get the most out of the stuff I am sending out.

System reliability is the probability that you get the outcome you expect from a system. It's the product of the reliability of each of the individual components of the system.

As an example:

Let’s say that you expect to get in your car and drive to directly the office:

The car starts 90% of the time you expect it to and it runs as expected after starting 90% of the time. You will get to your office, as expected, 81% of the time.

(90% x 90% = 81%)

What if you only have enough gas in your car to get to the office of 90% of the time? You will drive to your office, as expected, 72.9% of the time.

(90% x 90% x 90% = 72.9%)

As you can see: the more components in a system, the less reliable that system. Each new component added will reduce the reliability of the system.

What if you add components that are more reliable than any of the existing ones?

90% x 90% x 90% is the example above.

If we add an extra component that is 99% reliable:

90% x 90% x 90% x 99% = 72.1%

We added a component more reliable than all the others and the total reliability still went down. Multiplication is a bitch like that.

Takeaways:

• More components = less reliability

• Super-reliable components cannot make up for less reliable ones unless they replace them.

Here is what this is important:

Most of the tech surrounding us is nearly perfect. Obviously, our cars, computers, phones, etc are far more reliable than the 90% examples above. And yet, we fail to get the outcome we expect quite often.

And here’s why:

The least reliable component in every system is the human.

If your car actually only started nine out of every ten times you tried to start it, you'd replace it. if your computer only turned on nine out of every ten times you needed to use it you would be outraged. This unreliability of the tech would clearly be a huge problem. It would be obvious to you that 90% reliable tech and tools are a limit to your success.

Now, turn your attention to the mirror:

• If you “eat clean” during the week (five days out of seven) you are less unreliable than any of the examples above. You wouldn’t accept 71.4% reliability from ANY other component of your life.

• If you plan to wake up at 5 am every day and succeed six times your behavior is 85.7% reliable. You wouldn't accept 85% from anything else in your life that you depend on.

You get it.

We expect complete reliability in all of the things outside ourselves. Refusing to look in the mirror, we ignore the most important part of the system; ourselves.

If you are not getting the results you expect, better tech is not the solution. A better strategy will not help, because you're not being honest about the problem. It's not in the tech. It's in the mirror.

This leads us to the Adaptive Dilemma…

The Guardian Academy

@TheGuardianAcad

The Adaptive Dilemma 1: Language And Self Efficacy
guardianacademy.io/the-adaptive-d…

The Adaptive Dilemma 2: Dogmatic V Scientific Orientation
guardianacademy.io/the-adaptive-d…

The Adaptive Dilemma Part 3: Adaptive Versus Technical Problems
guardianacademy.io/the-adaptive-d…

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3:30 AM • Dec 29, 2022

I have dozens of videos about the adaptive dilemma because it's so important for me to understand. The ones in the tweet linked above are the most direct. Note: I write as a reminder to myself, I just do it publicly hoping it's helpful.

You can see a replay of a talk I gave that marries the two concepts for real estate investors here.

Just for shits and giggles, here is a video + article I made for Guardian Academy that breaks down system reliability again.

Take your time. Don't make sense of things quickly, that's cognitively lazy. Sit with it and review it, reflect, and observe.

Enjoy.

Nic

PS. Here is a short (okay it's 30 minutes) video breaking down why I have a low tolerance for lazy thinkers