“I very frequently get the question, “What’s going to change in the next ten years?” And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question, “What’s not going to change in the next ten years?” And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two, because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time.”

Jeff Bezos

Everyone loves this quotation and everyone loves to say they focus on building a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. But the implication is that most don't do that. Just look at where our attention is. We're obsessed with everything that's changing — trends, fads, shiny objects, tech of the day — and choose strategies that build on those things that are constantly changing.

Maybe we lack awareness of the things that are stable in time because we haven't had the time to step back and synthesize insights across observations. Maybe we have a strategy, but we lack enough confidence in it to build as if it's stable over time. Maybe we're not incentivized for it. Maybe it's not the kind of work we like, so we avoid it altogether. Maybe we don't have the wherewithal to think so hard about it, so we land on whatever's likely to give us the least headaches.

Reliable stable factors may depend on the business and work we're in. It's difficult, necessary work to figure it out for ourselves. Identifying these differentiating levers is what makes strategies effective.

Without a strategy rooted in a stable understanding of the future, even the best short-term, trend-accurate investments expose us to an ever-changing landscape and limit the potential for compounding impact. The reverse is true: with such a strategy in hand, we can choose which trends to pursue because we have a context for how to make the most of them. We take advantage of the ever-changing landscape rather than be subject to it.

Header photo by Denise Jans on