Editor-in-post author of the editorial board of the opinion leader of the new wave (Bkopleader)

Long-term reforms also require a stable macro environment.

I present two points of view: the situation and recommendations.

This is a very good and very relevant subject. Today’s guests also have some differences, such as the failure of the President to recommend a upward adjustment in the deficit rate and the remaining recommendation to break the 3 per cent rule.

What should be the way forward? In 2010, I participated in the study, “Increases”, in which “5 per cent more than the old 8 per cent” was introduced in 2014, and in 2015 we presented an important judgement that the Chinese economy is likely to be relatively close to the bottom and that the future economy of economy L is shaped. We introduced a new cycle in 2017, and this year we propose a retreat of the financial cycle.

As you know, I am deeply optimistic about China’s long-term economic prospects. But for the short-term economic situation, we need to be well estimated. Since, from a methodological point of view, only a sufficient estimate of the magnitude of the problem can provide sufficient preparation for response.

In the light of the future economic situation, it is clear that this economic L type will have two subsoils, the first in the second half of 15 to the first half of 2016, followed by a return from the second half of 2017, which will be largely seconded in the first half of 2019, with the possibility of reaching the middle of 2019.

The analysis of the macroeconomic situation in China was not complex, with three motor vehicles and two engines. Consumption, investment and exports were slowed out of the three-man drives. Of the two engines, local governments and private enterprises are subject to fiscal restructuring and financial leverage, respectively. The broader context is increased speed, compounded by structural and cyclical factors.

We look at several data, and everyone feels cold by the current economic situation. In terms of GDP growth, the three-quarters GDP growth rate was 6.5 per cent, a new low since the first quarter of 2009. For more than a decade, we have seen only two quarters of GDP growing at less than 6.5 per cent, four quarters in 08 and one quarter in 09, respectively, because of the impact of the international financial crisis. We have not been less than 6.5 per cent since then, the first time.

External environmental aspects. We are now exporting, with a skilful model used by scholars over the previous period, which says that trade friction in Central America has little impact on us. Indeed, in October, our PMI manufacturing new export order index was 46.8 per cent, a new low of 33 months. Moreover, the previous period involved the seizure of exports and the overloading of demand. China and the United States trade friction may be prepared for a long time, as was said at the time of the visit, and we may want to redefine the United States relationship. We have miscarriages in many cases this year, in which trade in Central America is one, some at the very outset believe that the middle American relationship is better and less bad, and in fact trade friction is escalating. At the beginning of the war on trade, we put forward “long-term and increasingly serious” “which is contained under the banner of trade protectionism”, “the best response is to reform openness”. On 1 January next year, 10 per cent of the $200 million customs duty on goods will be upgraded to 25 per cent, if the parties are unable to reach consensus before that date. Of course, the door to trade negotiations between the two sides was not closed, depending on the process of reform openness in our country and, on the other hand, the impact of trade friction on the United States began to emerge, with the recent sharp fall in the United States economic easing unit, which could allow the Government of Tropics to start calm and return to the negotiating table.

For example, in financial terms, the supply of M2 fell to 8.3 per cent in September. What is the concept? 8.3 per cent are new and low in the last two decades, our scale of social financing, the total amount of financing provided by financial institutions to the real economy, which was 1.54 trillion in January-September this year, a net decrease of 230 million over the previous year, all of which were previously annual growth. The investment that has just been reduced to 5.4 per cent for White Helmets teachers has, in fact, been found to have been reduced to 5.4 per cent in January-September, a new low since the Asian financial turmoil of 1998.

What creates such a situation? The first reason is that some situations have been compounded. The macroeconomicists know that nothing is feared and that nothing is done. There are external trade frictions, internal structural transformations, fiscal restructuring, financial leverage, environmental protection and de-productive energy. Moreover, the policies of these years are too ambitious, time-bound and time-consuming. Good macroregulation must be spring-based, rain-fed and wind-currency.

That is why the situation is such that a few constructive suggestions are made.

One hundred thousand, and most important, is to increase the openness of reform.

This year marks the fortieth anniversary of the reform of openness, and we have achieved impressive achievements and miracles, but since joining the World Trade Organization in 01, we need to be objectively recognized that we have come to an end in the open process. In the 1980s, we set up a coastal open city pilot, and in 01 we joined WTO, all of which were intensive and large-scale.

Indeed, the areas we are now going to open are still very large, and tens of millions of people have been successful in opening China. For example, about 10 per cent of State-owned enterprises in the manufacturing sector and 80 per cent and 90 per cent of foreign and private enterprises, why is Chinese manufacturing highly competitive globally? Open. But our services, including the financial sector, are not sufficiently open. Why is China’s underlying factor too costly? Inadequate competition is due to inadequate openness.

We need to be open to self-confidence, and we must be left to mind that manufacturing countries such as China, Germany, Japan, including Korea, are naturally benefiting from globalization and from the globalization of integration and trade in markets.

Secondly, our macro-regulation should not be too ambitious. The logic is not complex. It is sometimes lagging due to the effects of policies from formulation to dissemination. If policy is to be effective, it must be too robust. The United States reserves have been used for a long period of time from the construction expectations to the final addition. Therefore, our macro-regulation policy requires a period of interaction and adaptation with business.

Thirdly, it is recommended that fiscal policy be proactive