A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

London (CNN Business)There's no denying that the US economy is at a strange juncture that's left even top experts scratching their heads.

"If you're not a little confused about the economy, you're not paying attention," former White House economic adviser Jason Furman, who now teaches at Harvard, recently tweeted.

Consumers are extremely pessimistic, but they're spending more than they did last year, according to the latest retail sales data. The number of jobs is still growing at a healthy clip and unemployment is near record lows, but economic output is slowing sharply. In the first three months of the year, it contracted.

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That's stoking debate among policymakers and investors about whether the United States is close to, or already in, a recession — and if it isn't, whether persistent anxiety about one could be enough to make it a reality, as nervous businesses and consumers start to pull back.

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business' Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.

London (CNN Business)There's no denying that the US economy is at a strange juncture that's left even top experts scratching their heads.

"If you're not a little confused about the economy, you're not paying attention," former White House economic adviser Jason Furman, who now teaches at Harvard, recently tweeted.

Consumers are extremely pessimistic, but they're spending more than they did last year, according to the latest retail sales data. The number of jobs is still growing at a healthy clip and unemployment is near record lows, but economic output is slowing sharply. In the first three months of the year, it contracted.

*

That's stoking debate among policymakers and investors about whether the United States is close to, or already in, a recession — and if it isn't, whether persistent anxiety about one could be enough to make it a reality, as nervous businesses and consumers start to pull back.