No doubt this is a big "if," hinged largely on inflation steadily receding from June's 40-year high. But it should. Oil and gasoline prices are falling quickly as the worst of the commodity market fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be behind us. Meanwhile, the pandemic continues to fade, allowing global supply chains to iron themselves out, which will ease shortages for everything from lumber to vehicles. Potential workers sidelined by the virus are also slowly getting back on the job, taking the edge off rising labor costs.

Most encouraging, inflation expectations — what consumers, businesses and investors think inflation will be in the future — have significantly receded since jumping in the wake of the Russian invasion. Chalk this up to the Fed's aggressive actions. Expectations are typically self-fulfilling, and with inflation expectations back to the Fed's target of 2%, it is a good bet that actual inflation will head quickly in the same direction.

No doubt this is a big "if," hinged largely on inflation steadily receding from June's 40-year high. But it should. Oil and gasoline prices are falling quickly as the worst of the commodity market fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to be behind us. Meanwhile, the pandemic continues to fade, allowing global supply chains to iron themselves out, which will ease shortages for everything from lumber to vehicles. Potential workers sidelined by the virus are also slowly getting back on the job, taking the edge off rising labor costs.

Most encouraging, inflation expectations — what consumers, businesses and investors think inflation will be in the future — have significantly receded since jumping in the wake of the Russian invasion. Chalk this up to the Fed's aggressive actions. Expectations are typically self-fulfilling, and with inflation expectations back to the Fed's target of 2%, it is a good bet that actual inflation will head quickly in the same direction.