The current war situation can only end under three circumstances

On February 27, near Kiev, Ukraine, Ukrainians looked in the direction of an oil storage depot, emitting thick smoke after being attacked by missiles. Figure / surging image

Between peace and war, where will the conflict between Russia and Ukraine go?

Our reporter / Cao ran Hosey

Issued on the 1034th issue of China Newsweek on March 7, 2022

On the afternoon of February 28, senior officials from Russia and Ukraine held talks in Gomel Prefecture in southeastern Belarus near the Ukrainian border. This is the first time that the two sides have held face-to-face negotiations since the Russian military launched a special military operation on February 24. After more than five hours of talks, Ukrainian President zelynski said that it “did not meet expectations”, while participants such as the head of the Russian delegation and Presidential Assistant makinski said that the two sides could listen to each other during the negotiations and found a consensus point for the next negotiation. On February 3, the two sides will contact again on the border between Poland and Belarus.

The fighting in Ukraine was interrupted without the start of peace talks. “Cease fire? I just witnessed a missile attack half an hour ago!” On the night of February 28, Kiev state councilor Doman (a pseudonym) sent a surveillance video that was said to have just been recorded to China Newsweek: it was night, pedestrians and vehicles were moving normally in the flickering strong light, and then suddenly scattered and fled. Mars splashes, the video ends.

If there were no war, the lawyer born congressman should question the illegal mining of mines around Kiev in parliament recently. But the pre dawn explosion on February 24 shattered everyone’s lives. Local councillors and officials took the citizens of the “territorial defense volunteer camp” who had never fired a gun to get weapons, dig trenches, distribute helmets and hoard food. During their rest, they also made “propaganda materials” for the “national war” on social media and sent private letters and emails calling for peace to Russian celebrities

People are preparing for war day and night. The news of “Infiltrator” is transmitted in the sound and light of artillery fire and explosion. Everyone’s nerves are highly tense. “People become animals in war. You can’t imagine it (in peace).” Doman said. Even if the peace talks or the “temporary ceasefire agreement” can be reached, can the relations between Russia and Ukraine, which have experienced cruel confrontation, return to the past?

“I don’t think the agenda of both sides can be reconciled now.” Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Committee, told China Newsweek on February 28 that the current war situation could end only under three circumstances: first, Russia basically completed its military tasks and the operation ended. Second, the Russian military operation will still encounter significant resistance for some time to come and will be forced to achieve some of its objectives through negotiations. Third, external countries or organizations offer a more favorable option than continuing military operations.

On February 25, a residential building in Kiev, Ukraine, was shelled, causing a fire. Figure / people’s vision

Ukraine’s active choice of “neutrality” is almost impossible

Recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea; De militarization and de Nazism of Ukraine; Ukraine guarantees neutrality. When talking with French President macron on February 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin put forward the “three conditions” to be reached to solve the Ukrainian problem. “Russia’s position is generally to negotiate the conditions for Ukraine’s surrender.” In an interview with China Newsweek on February 28, kortunov made no secret of it.

However, Ukrainian President Zelensky has already indicated that he will not accept any peaceful conditions involving interference in Ukraine’s political system. On the contrary, the representative of Ukraine asked Russian troops to withdraw from Ukraine, including Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk, which have announced their secession from Ukraine since 2014, in order to rebuild a “unified Ukraine”.

After the “limited attack” originally envisaged by Russia failed to be realized and the Kiev authorities did not give in, according to the data of the Russian Ministry of defense, the Russian army’s attack on the key targets and military facilities of the Ukrainian army has been continuously strengthened in recent days. The Russian air force and missile forces destroyed more than 80 military facilities on the first day of the war, and more than 1000 Ukrainian ground facilities had been destroyed on the fourth day.

Starting from February 28, the Russian army launched heavy weapons such as rockets in the siege of Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city. The mayor of Kharkov said on March 1 that Russian troops began to attack Kharkov substation, resulting in problems in power supply and water supply in the city. The Ukrainian government also said on the same day that the city’s landmark Freedom Square was shelled, injuring at least six civilians, including a child.

In Kiev, where the Russian army has not yet gone deep into the urban area, the defensive situation is also deteriorating. After a heavy snow in the night from February 28 to March 1, the snow in Kiev was frozen seriously, and the gate of the grocery store opened for the first time in three days was crowded with people queuing to buy. In the past three days, they often have to hide in unheated basements, underground parking lots and subway stations. US media warned that this round of cooling may exacerbate the risk of humanitarian crisis in Kiev. According to CNN and other media reports, a Russian military column stretching more than 40 miles has arrived in the suburbs of Kiev.

In this context, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu once again stressed on March 1 that the Russian army will continue to carry out special military operations in Ukraine until “the established objectives are achieved”. The previous day, after Putin ordered the Russian nuclear deterrence force to upgrade to special combat readiness, Shoigu had ordered the Russian strategic missile force, the strategic aviation command of the air force and the North Sea fleet and Pacific Fleet equipped with ballistic missile nuclear submarines to enter the state of combat readiness.

It is unclear whether Shoigu’s latest statement means that Russian troops will continue to send more troops to Ukraine. Seth Jones, vice president of the center for strategic and international studies, a us think tank, said on March 1 that the current number of Russian troops in Ukraine is only 150000, that is, 3.4 soldiers for every 1000 civilian population. However, when NATO troops entered Bosnia during the civil war of the former Yugoslavia in 1995, their strength reached 17.5 soldiers for every 1000 residents, while during the Kosovo war in 2000, NATO forces have reached 19.3 soldiers per 1000 residents. Jones said that sufficient troops are essential to re-establish order in conflict areas.

The Ukrainian government said it was strengthening the defense of Kiev and preparing to defend the capital “in depth”. On March 1, Zelensky announced the visa free system for foreign mercenaries to Ukraine.