Overview; TLDR If you haven’t already checked it out, I recommend you read the Cycles 101 Overview which will give you some important background to understand the details below. This first week of August was just consolidation after the big green weekly candle from the previous week. We did manage to make a new high on the weekly chart but then pulled back on Friday after the Jobs Report. This consolidation makes sense since the next CPI report is due Wednesday (8/10) morning. The market is l...

Overview; TLDR If you haven’t already checked it out, I recommend you read the Cycles 101 Overview which will give you some important background to understand the details below. This first week of August was just consolidation after the big green weekly candle from the previous week. We did manage to make a new high on the weekly chart but then pulled back on Friday after the Jobs Report. This consolidation makes sense since the next CPI report is due Wednesday (8/10) morning. The market is l...

TL;DR It’s right to be long here but a pullback is imminent based on a confluence of market structure and timing. That pullback must hold a higher low to confirm the current uptrend is intact. Overview The second week of August was quite eventful following the consolidation week. As we were expecting, we chopped around Monday and Tuesday and then the CPI release Wednesday (8/10) morning was the catalyst for a powerful rally above the June highs. The next big picture target is the 4600 area as...

TL;DR It’s right to be long here but a pullback is imminent based on a confluence of market structure and timing. That pullback must hold a higher low to confirm the current uptrend is intact. Overview The second week of August was quite eventful following the consolidation week. As we were expecting, we chopped around Monday and Tuesday and then the CPI release Wednesday (8/10) morning was the catalyst for a powerful rally above the June highs. The next big picture target is the 4600 area as...

Overview I use cycles as a way to better quantify trend analysis and turn it into actionable insights. When I look at cycles I focus 100% on price action. Cycles help to explain the price action, not the other way around. I don’t believe there is any outside force controlling the price action to make it conform to certain timing bands as other analysts seem to think. This is why I don’t rely on knowing when an asset is “supposed” to have a certain cycle low. To identify those turning points I...

Overview I use cycles as a way to better quantify trend analysis and turn it into actionable insights. When I look at cycles I focus 100% on price action. Cycles help to explain the price action, not the other way around. I don’t believe there is any outside force controlling the price action to make it conform to certain timing bands as other analysts seem to think. This is why I don’t rely on knowing when an asset is “supposed” to have a certain cycle low. To identify those turning points I...

Overview +TLDR If you haven’t already, I recommend you read the Cycles 101 Overview which will give you some important background to understand the details below. Last week we saw a bullish reaction to the FOMC rate hike and subsequent press conference as Powell indicated any rate hikes going forward would be “data dependent”. Regardless of what the news was, we saw a bullish reaction with SPX closing just a few dollars away from forming a monthly swing low. That said, we are relatively late ...

Overview +TLDR If you haven’t already, I recommend you read the Cycles 101 Overview which will give you some important background to understand the details below. Last week we saw a bullish reaction to the FOMC rate hike and subsequent press conference as Powell indicated any rate hikes going forward would be “data dependent”. Regardless of what the news was, we saw a bullish reaction with SPX closing just a few dollars away from forming a monthly swing low. That said, we are relatively late ...