SynthMode Synth (SN50) Subnet Whitepaper and How to Guide
The creation and use of synthetic price data has traditionally been dominated by opaque, well-funded entities such as large financial institutions, centralized technology firms, and regulatory agencies, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve, and PayPal. The closed-source nature of these datasets stems from the self-serving priorities of these organizations, which often lack the incentive to democratize data access. This approach exacerbates disparities, creating a wider...
SynthSynth Subnet - Inside Synth’s Accuracy Surge
IntroductionThis report provides a focused assessment of recent progress in the Synth subnet, where miners forecast BTC’s return distribution every day. Over the past month, the subnet has seen a major shift: miners prioritizing volatility accuracy have rapidly climbed the leaderboards, outperforming more complex models that previously held top positions. We analyze the performance of these top miners across multiple metrics, volatility, intraday variation, and kurtosis, using data from June ...
SynthSynth content transitioned to Synth X articles
You can stay up to date with Synth’s ongoing research, performance analysis, and ecosystem updates through our regularly published X articles. All new releases are posted directly on our X account here: https://x.com/SynthdataCo/articles.
SynthMode Synth (SN50) Subnet Whitepaper and How to Guide
The creation and use of synthetic price data has traditionally been dominated by opaque, well-funded entities such as large financial institutions, centralized technology firms, and regulatory agencies, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve, and PayPal. The closed-source nature of these datasets stems from the self-serving priorities of these organizations, which often lack the incentive to democratize data access. This approach exacerbates disparities, creating a wider...
SynthSynth Subnet - Inside Synth’s Accuracy Surge
IntroductionThis report provides a focused assessment of recent progress in the Synth subnet, where miners forecast BTC’s return distribution every day. Over the past month, the subnet has seen a major shift: miners prioritizing volatility accuracy have rapidly climbed the leaderboards, outperforming more complex models that previously held top positions. We analyze the performance of these top miners across multiple metrics, volatility, intraday variation, and kurtosis, using data from June ...
SynthSynth content transitioned to Synth X articles
You can stay up to date with Synth’s ongoing research, performance analysis, and ecosystem updates through our regularly published X articles. All new releases are posted directly on our X account here: https://x.com/SynthdataCo/articles.
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Data from 2025-03-31 To 2025-04-06
Between March 31 and April 6, Bitcoin opened at approximately $82,400 and closed at around $78,300, marking a 4.9% decrease over the week. The price experienced significant volatility, particularly following the U.S. announcement of new tariffs on April 2 at 8:00 PM UTC, which triggered an immediate drop. Bitcoin reached a peak of $88,400 on April 2 before declining sharply to a low of $78,100 on April 6. Notably, the end of the week saw another surge in volatility, with 5-minute rolling volatility spiking to about 0.05% on April 6, driven by market reactions to the tariff news and ongoing global economic uncertainty.
The most pronounced price movement occurred right after the tariff announcement, with Bitcoin dropping $6,100 (7.4%) within hours. This decline persisted through the week, with additional volatility spikes at the end of the week, particularly on April 6, as the market continued to react to the tariff implications. Unlike previous weeks, where weekends often brought stability, this weekend maintained high volatility levels, reflecting the broader market's uncertainty.
Six miners were analyzed: the previous week's top three performers (Miners 54, 148, and 232) and three new contenders (Miners 91, 196, and 234). We are going to comment on these miners’ performance based on the aggregated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values, with a particular focus on their ability to handle the significant volatility observed at the end of the week.
Lower CRPS values indicate better predictive performance. The data reveals distinct patterns in miner performance throughout the week. All miners experienced a sharp increase in CRPS values (worsened performance) following the U.S. new tariffs announcement on April 3, with values peaking around 50,000, reflecting the difficulty of predicting during this high-volatility period. Miner 148 performed the worst during this spike, reaching a CRPS value close to 49,500.
Performance stabilized for a short period on April 4 as market conditions temporarily calmed, with CRPS values dropping to around 30,000 before rising again following another period of increased volatility. However, the significant volatility at the end of the week, particularly on April 6, caused another spike in CRPS values, reaching almost 35,000.
Miners 234 and 54 adapted particularly well to the lower-volatility between April 5 and April 6, showing the most consistent improvement during this period, with CRPS values dropping back close to 15,000 by April 6.
Lower leaderboard scores indicate better performance. The leaderboard scores reflect the (exponentially weighted) average impact of the CRPS values throughout the previous 7 days. Miners 54, 148, and 232 started the week with values between 800 and 900, but they saw their scores increase considerably during the week, ending with scores around 1,400. On the other hand, Miners 91, 196, and 234.
Miners 91, 196, and 234, on the other hand, showed stable and consistent performance throughout the week, even demonstrating slight improvement as their scores decreased from around 1,200 to below 1,000. This suggests that the subnet leaderboard rewards sustained performance rather than sporadic high scores from individual prompts.
Impact of Geopolitical Events: The U.S. new tariffs announcement on April 3 significantly impacted Bitcoin’s price and volatility, challenging miners’ predictive models. The significant volatility at the end of the week further tested miners’ adaptability, with those who recalibrated quickly (e.g., Miner 234) performing best.
End-of-Week Volatility: Unlike previous weeks where weekends often brought lower volatility, the significant volatility spike on April 6 highlights the need for miners to develop models that can handle unexpected market reactions, particularly during weekends.
Scoring System Effectiveness: The extended EWMA time window (from 4 to 7 days, with a half-life increase from 2 to 3.5 days) continues to reward consistent performance, as seen in the relatively narrow range of leaderboard scores by the week's end, despite the significant volatility challenges.
Data from 2025-03-31 To 2025-04-06
Between March 31 and April 6, Bitcoin opened at approximately $82,400 and closed at around $78,300, marking a 4.9% decrease over the week. The price experienced significant volatility, particularly following the U.S. announcement of new tariffs on April 2 at 8:00 PM UTC, which triggered an immediate drop. Bitcoin reached a peak of $88,400 on April 2 before declining sharply to a low of $78,100 on April 6. Notably, the end of the week saw another surge in volatility, with 5-minute rolling volatility spiking to about 0.05% on April 6, driven by market reactions to the tariff news and ongoing global economic uncertainty.
The most pronounced price movement occurred right after the tariff announcement, with Bitcoin dropping $6,100 (7.4%) within hours. This decline persisted through the week, with additional volatility spikes at the end of the week, particularly on April 6, as the market continued to react to the tariff implications. Unlike previous weeks, where weekends often brought stability, this weekend maintained high volatility levels, reflecting the broader market's uncertainty.
Six miners were analyzed: the previous week's top three performers (Miners 54, 148, and 232) and three new contenders (Miners 91, 196, and 234). We are going to comment on these miners’ performance based on the aggregated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and leaderboard values, with a particular focus on their ability to handle the significant volatility observed at the end of the week.
Lower CRPS values indicate better predictive performance. The data reveals distinct patterns in miner performance throughout the week. All miners experienced a sharp increase in CRPS values (worsened performance) following the U.S. new tariffs announcement on April 3, with values peaking around 50,000, reflecting the difficulty of predicting during this high-volatility period. Miner 148 performed the worst during this spike, reaching a CRPS value close to 49,500.
Performance stabilized for a short period on April 4 as market conditions temporarily calmed, with CRPS values dropping to around 30,000 before rising again following another period of increased volatility. However, the significant volatility at the end of the week, particularly on April 6, caused another spike in CRPS values, reaching almost 35,000.
Miners 234 and 54 adapted particularly well to the lower-volatility between April 5 and April 6, showing the most consistent improvement during this period, with CRPS values dropping back close to 15,000 by April 6.
Lower leaderboard scores indicate better performance. The leaderboard scores reflect the (exponentially weighted) average impact of the CRPS values throughout the previous 7 days. Miners 54, 148, and 232 started the week with values between 800 and 900, but they saw their scores increase considerably during the week, ending with scores around 1,400. On the other hand, Miners 91, 196, and 234.
Miners 91, 196, and 234, on the other hand, showed stable and consistent performance throughout the week, even demonstrating slight improvement as their scores decreased from around 1,200 to below 1,000. This suggests that the subnet leaderboard rewards sustained performance rather than sporadic high scores from individual prompts.
Impact of Geopolitical Events: The U.S. new tariffs announcement on April 3 significantly impacted Bitcoin’s price and volatility, challenging miners’ predictive models. The significant volatility at the end of the week further tested miners’ adaptability, with those who recalibrated quickly (e.g., Miner 234) performing best.
End-of-Week Volatility: Unlike previous weeks where weekends often brought lower volatility, the significant volatility spike on April 6 highlights the need for miners to develop models that can handle unexpected market reactions, particularly during weekends.
Scoring System Effectiveness: The extended EWMA time window (from 4 to 7 days, with a half-life increase from 2 to 3.5 days) continues to reward consistent performance, as seen in the relatively narrow range of leaderboard scores by the week's end, despite the significant volatility challenges.
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