
Stating the Obvious #1: AI Thoughts
Like most investors, I've been trying to grasp what’s going on in the AI space today. Three observations:An incredible amount of progress has taken place since I was a computer vision x agriculture researcher in 2017 - see Elad Gilad’s summary and Stanford’s 2021 report and State of AI 2022.The rate of AI development continues to increase and AGI forecasts are shrinking - see this weak general AI survey and this AI programming AI survey.AI safety dialogue remains reserved to a handful of...

Stating the Obvious #2: Invention, Intention, Implementation
Today, on our morning walk, Anay pointed her finger towards a magnificently large home and said "The guy who owns that invented the standing-wheel-thing". The device she was trying to describe is the segway. Yes, the ingenious machine that brought us Paul Blart. Immediately, I envisioned an old man sitting on an oversized couch in his oversized living room with oversized windows holding an oversized check for some dollar amount with too many zeros. And I thought: how strange it is that we val...

Stating the Obvious #3: Web3 is...
Over the past year, I’ve desperately tried to turn "Web3 is..." into a full sentence. I brainstormed and debated with my peers, I studied Web3’s history (which is really cryptography’s history), and followed community discourse. But nothing stuck. However, it was abundantly clear people wanted “it”, whatever it was. My goal was to develop a mental model to understand how and why Web3 would happen. The hope was, equipped with this model, I could be a better investor in and advocate-for the tec...

In pursuit of understanding. Discovering decentralized technology and society.


Stating the Obvious #1: AI Thoughts
Like most investors, I've been trying to grasp what’s going on in the AI space today. Three observations:An incredible amount of progress has taken place since I was a computer vision x agriculture researcher in 2017 - see Elad Gilad’s summary and Stanford’s 2021 report and State of AI 2022.The rate of AI development continues to increase and AGI forecasts are shrinking - see this weak general AI survey and this AI programming AI survey.AI safety dialogue remains reserved to a handful of...

Stating the Obvious #2: Invention, Intention, Implementation
Today, on our morning walk, Anay pointed her finger towards a magnificently large home and said "The guy who owns that invented the standing-wheel-thing". The device she was trying to describe is the segway. Yes, the ingenious machine that brought us Paul Blart. Immediately, I envisioned an old man sitting on an oversized couch in his oversized living room with oversized windows holding an oversized check for some dollar amount with too many zeros. And I thought: how strange it is that we val...

Stating the Obvious #3: Web3 is...
Over the past year, I’ve desperately tried to turn "Web3 is..." into a full sentence. I brainstormed and debated with my peers, I studied Web3’s history (which is really cryptography’s history), and followed community discourse. But nothing stuck. However, it was abundantly clear people wanted “it”, whatever it was. My goal was to develop a mental model to understand how and why Web3 would happen. The hope was, equipped with this model, I could be a better investor in and advocate-for the tec...
In pursuit of understanding. Discovering decentralized technology and society.
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I've read many generative AI takes that sound something like: "The cost of creation is going to zero" or "Everyone is a creator now", including my own. The effect of such phenomenon would be a Cambrian explosion of digital content on the internet; from text to 3D assets to music and everything in between. If this is true, we can make a few observations about this future state.
The internet will be a lot noisier. This is pretty straightforward, there's just going to be more shit out there. We've already seen this play out on social media apps. As Rex Woodbury pointed out, where Youtube creators have high resource requirements such as professional video production equipment, TikTok creators have very low resource requirements; all they need is a smart phone. This lower barrier to entry has undoubtedly contributed to TikTok's astonishing creator density (1-in-4 users), compared to Youtube's 1-in-1,000.
Signal becomes increasingly more valuable. Noise begets signal, signal begets noise. Today, curation is a highly monetizable service on the internet through consumer goods, fashion and merchandise, affiliate partnerships, and advertising. Personally, I'm keeping an eye on curation through ownership and cryptographic signatures.
Ownership unlocks a new axis for curation on the internet: tools like Guild.xyz permission access based on it, apps like Gallery establish social networks around it and loyalty programs like Starbucks Odyssey mark their users by distributing it. There are very few trends I am more bullish on than digital ownership.
Similar to Fred Wilson's thoughts, we may end up valuing original content and provenance at a premium (which is why you should collect this Mirror post). Signature's are breadcrumbs of a user's activity but unlike cookies they carry intent. Instead of guessing what I'm interested in, I can show you. I expect a data rich network of signatures to play a lucrative role in the future of advertising.
Information is multimedia by default. Generative AI's killer user case may not be content creation but rather content translation. Text can exist as images, images as audio, audio as video, video as XR experiences or any combination of media_type_A as media_type_B. In essence, content becomes fluid form and users can select their preferred means of consumption; something we've already seen with text-to-audio tools. Tangentially, this could have significant impact on how we search the internet based on preferred media type. One of my favorite forms of content is debates (as video or audio). I’d love a search engine that ingest a topic question and outputs a (simulated) debate between to subject matter experts; reminiscent of Steve Jobs on Joe Rogan.
Five good reads…
Revenue Evil Curve by Vitalik
Heisenfunctions by Kyle
Choose Good Quests by Trae and Markie
Glass Giants by Mario
*Disclosure: Delphi Ventures is an investor in Guild and Gallery
I've read many generative AI takes that sound something like: "The cost of creation is going to zero" or "Everyone is a creator now", including my own. The effect of such phenomenon would be a Cambrian explosion of digital content on the internet; from text to 3D assets to music and everything in between. If this is true, we can make a few observations about this future state.
The internet will be a lot noisier. This is pretty straightforward, there's just going to be more shit out there. We've already seen this play out on social media apps. As Rex Woodbury pointed out, where Youtube creators have high resource requirements such as professional video production equipment, TikTok creators have very low resource requirements; all they need is a smart phone. This lower barrier to entry has undoubtedly contributed to TikTok's astonishing creator density (1-in-4 users), compared to Youtube's 1-in-1,000.
Signal becomes increasingly more valuable. Noise begets signal, signal begets noise. Today, curation is a highly monetizable service on the internet through consumer goods, fashion and merchandise, affiliate partnerships, and advertising. Personally, I'm keeping an eye on curation through ownership and cryptographic signatures.
Ownership unlocks a new axis for curation on the internet: tools like Guild.xyz permission access based on it, apps like Gallery establish social networks around it and loyalty programs like Starbucks Odyssey mark their users by distributing it. There are very few trends I am more bullish on than digital ownership.
Similar to Fred Wilson's thoughts, we may end up valuing original content and provenance at a premium (which is why you should collect this Mirror post). Signature's are breadcrumbs of a user's activity but unlike cookies they carry intent. Instead of guessing what I'm interested in, I can show you. I expect a data rich network of signatures to play a lucrative role in the future of advertising.
Information is multimedia by default. Generative AI's killer user case may not be content creation but rather content translation. Text can exist as images, images as audio, audio as video, video as XR experiences or any combination of media_type_A as media_type_B. In essence, content becomes fluid form and users can select their preferred means of consumption; something we've already seen with text-to-audio tools. Tangentially, this could have significant impact on how we search the internet based on preferred media type. One of my favorite forms of content is debates (as video or audio). I’d love a search engine that ingest a topic question and outputs a (simulated) debate between to subject matter experts; reminiscent of Steve Jobs on Joe Rogan.
Five good reads…
Revenue Evil Curve by Vitalik
Heisenfunctions by Kyle
Choose Good Quests by Trae and Markie
Glass Giants by Mario
*Disclosure: Delphi Ventures is an investor in Guild and Gallery
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