Let’s start by saying this… Trading bitcoin is for whales and fools. Unless you have enough collateral to move markets in your favor you are at the whim of those that do. It is impossible to predict short term movements. Sudden huge wicks up and down are common and will liquidate the most experienced traders.
Long term investing is a different story. Investing is not trading. Dollar cost averaging is always the best option, especially during bear markets. But people want to know when is the best time to buy or sell like there is some magic crystal ball to help pick the peaks. There’s not. But, if I were to make one trade this would be it.
Buy Bitcoin 18 months before the halving - around Feb/March 2023
Sell it 18 months after the halving - around August/September 2025
Do not use leverage.
Invest only what you can afford to loose.
During bear markets bitcoin gets boring. The speculators have sold and left - usually at a loss. Volumes are down and mainstream news will confidently report that finally “Bitcoin is dead”. After a year or so of bear market despair, when bitcoin is 70-80% down from it’s highs, the halving happens. The Bitcoin issuance is cut in half creating a supply shock. It doesn’t happen straight away, it takes some time for the shock to set in.
Within a few months of the halving the price starts to rise significantly. The speculators and tourists return buying up Bitcoin off exchanges. They spout their genius on Youtube encouraging hordes of gullible noobs to buy at the top. Increasing prices mean miners don’t need to sell as much Bitcoin to meet expenses. This exacerbates the shortage on exchanges and causes the price to slingshot past it’s fair value - whatever that may be. The same noobs and speculators, also feeling like genius’ now, dive into new coins, ICOs, NFTs or whatever the next big thing is.
Then something tips and people start to sell causing liquidations and more selling. Sentiment turns negative as the noobs who bought the top are down 20, 30, 50%. The bear markets sets in, projects go bust and the cycle repeats.
Now, It was a popular belief among Bitcoiners that no one has lost money in Bitcoin over a 4 year period. That belief was broken for a handful of days in June and July 2022 and possibly into 2023 (it’s currently August, 2022). Popular analysts like Plan B and Willy Woo who predicted $100,000 and $300,000 tops for 2021 were way off the mark. Always remember: 1)This time is different, 2)Nobody knows shit about fuck, and 3)That includes me.