本次反弹引动了其他参与者发生结构性的变化了吗？
“我们的目的是以更高的技巧和更专业的数据分析来帮助市场的参与者们更全面的解剖市场，以便参与者依靠自己的判断力做出更理智的决策。”
“Our aim is to help market participants with professional skill and greater focus to better understand the market and make wiser decisions.”
本周是农历春节前的最后一周，冰糖橙在周一跌到了近半年最低点，33000左右，随后快速拉伸到37000以上。
截至本周日，仍然在37000左右震荡。
从筹码区来看，35000与36000又形成了一个支撑，而38000与39000也有一定的压力，短期震荡不可避免。
This week is the last week before the Lunar New Year, and BTC hit a half-year low of around 33,000 on Monday before quickly stretching to more than 37,000.
As of Sunday, it was still trading around 37, 000.
From the chip area, support is at 35000 and 36000, there is also certain pressure and 38000 and 39000, short-term shock is inevitable.
鲍威尔：不排除在每次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议上都加息
1月27日消息，美联储主席鲍威尔：不排除在每次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议上都加息。美联储主席鲍威尔称，美联储准备在3月加息。美联储还表示，在首次加息开始后将收缩资产负债表，结束应对新冠疫情的超宽松货币政策，以抗击数十年来最严重的通胀。FOMC维持基准政策利率目标区间在零至0.25％不变，符合预期。（汇通财经）
全球日增确诊超384万例 累计逾3.6亿例 美国一周内报告115万名儿童感染新冠
1月28日， 根据Worldometer实时统计数据，截至北京时间2022年1月28日6时30分，全球累计确诊新冠肺炎病例366294703例，累计死亡病例5654933例。全球单日新增确诊病例3846094例，新增死亡病例11655例。
数据显示，美国、法国、印度、巴西、德国是新增确诊病例数最多的五个国家。美国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西、墨西哥是新增死亡病例数最多的五个国家。(海外网)
八小时谈判奏效 俄乌同意不动武
俄罗斯和乌克兰代表以及德国和法国官员26日在巴黎举行“诺曼底模式”会谈，希望平息两国紧张情势。在经过8小时的谈判后，双方同意维持停火，下个月则会在柏林再举行新一轮会谈。（德国之声）
分析：
此次FOMO会议鲍威尔发言还是偏鹰，但由于之前释放了部分恐慌情绪，当日美股三大指数上演倒V反转，截至收盘仅纳指微涨0.02%。今年3月加息基本已确定，后续加息次数及缩表程度，还不好判断。中期金融市场前两季度不确定性还是比较大的。
疫情方面，《柳叶刀》最新刊登文章预测新冠疫情大流行即将在3月初结束。目前很多国家确诊数已在下降。
俄罗斯乌克兰局势暂时稳定。
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: Rate hike could happen at every FOMC meeting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the central bank is ready to raise interest rates in March. The Fed also said it would shrink its balance sheet after the first rate hike, moving toward ending its ultra-loose monetary policy to combat the worst inflation in decades. The FOMC left the target range for its benchmark policy rate unchanged at zero to 0.25%, as expected. (Huitong Finance)
The United States reported 1.15 million new cases of COVID-19 in one week
On January 28, according to Worldometer real-time statistics, there were 3,66,294,703 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 5,654,933 deaths worldwide as of 6:30 PM Beijing time on January 28, 2022. Globally, 38,46,094 new confirmed cases and 11,655 new deaths were reported in a single day.
The United States, France, India, Brazil and Germany are the five countries with the highest number of new cases, according to the data. The United States, Russia, India, Brazil and Mexico are the five countries with the highest number of new deaths. (Overseas network)
After eight hours of talks, Russia and Ukraine agreed not to use force
Representatives from Russia and Ukraine, as well as officials from Germany and France, held “Normandy” talks in Paris On Monday, hoping to calm tensions between the two countries. After eight hours of talks, the two sides agreed to hold the ceasefire and hold another round of talks in Berlin next month. (Deutsche Welle)
Analysis:
In the FOMO meeting Powell’s speech is stilleagle, but before we have released some some panic, so the three major U.S. stock indexes on the same day inverted V reversal, up to the close of only slightly up 0.02%.
The rate hike in March this year has been basically confirmed, but it is not easy to judge the frequency of subsequent rate hikes and the extent of shrinking the balance sheet.
In the first two quarters, the financial market uncertainty is relatively large.
On the epidemic front, the Lancet recently published an article predicting the end of the pandemic in early March. The number of cases is already falling in many countries.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine is temporarily stable.
其他新闻
内蒙古对虚拟货币“挖矿”用电实行差别电价，每千瓦时加1元
1月26日，内蒙古发改委微信公众号发布了《内蒙古自治区发展和改革委员会、工业和信息化厅关于虚拟货币“挖矿“用电实行差别电价政策的通知》（下称《通知》），决定对虚拟货币“挖矿”项目用电实行差别电价，执行“淘汰类”企业电价，加价标准为每千瓦时1元。
此外，海南省此前也在2021年12月率先部署了对虚拟货币“挖矿”项目用电实行差别电价的政策，决定将虚拟货币“挖矿”活动列为淘汰类产业，实行差别电价，加价标准为每千瓦时（每度电）0.8元。（金色财经）
老挝向两个加密货币交易平台发放许可证
金色财经报道，老挝中央银行已经向两家公司发放了加密货币交易的许可证。第一个授权平台是老挝数字资产交易所（LDX），是AIF集团和Phongsupthavy集团的合资企业。第二个是Bitqik，Simuong集团的一个子公司。
这两家公司是老挝唯一获得许可和监管的实体，可以提供加密货币和其他数字资产的全面经纪和交易服务。这两个平台预计将在4月提供全面服务。他们将完全按照中央银行的规定运作。（news.bitcoin）
报告：提供加密服务的银行将在2022年增加一倍以上
1月29日消息，《美国银行家》最新发布的研究报告表明，到2022年底，提供加密产品和服务的银行数量预计将增加一倍以上。44%的银行高管预计到今年年底将为客户提供加密帮助。此外，三分之一的财务经理预计会积极管理客户的加密货币投资组合，且有13%的财务经理已经这样做了。
目前，有20%财务顾问为客户提供加密货币持有的建议，但预计到2022年底，这一比例将翻一番。除此之外，60%的财富管理顾问认为，到2022年，他们的客户将增加加密货币资产或开始投资加密货币。（Finbold）
美国防长：美方不会向乌克兰派遣军队
1月29日报道，美国国防部长奥斯汀表示，美国领导层明确表示，无意在乌克兰危机升级时向乌克兰派遣军队参加战事。奥斯汀在新闻发布会上表示：“拜登总统明确表示，无意向乌克兰派遣军队参加军事行动。”他还表示：“我们没有派遣任何军队。我们提高了军队戒备。”本周，8500名美国军人受到命令为加强北约东翼做好准备被派往欧洲。（俄罗斯卫星通讯社）
Visa：在2022年第一财季使用其加密链接卡支付了25亿美元
金色财经报道，在周四的财报电话会议上，Visa 表示，其客户在 2022 年第一财季使用其加密链接卡支付了 25 亿美元。这是整个 2021 财年所有加密卡交易量的 70% 以上，这表明数字货币的采用率有所增加。
Visa 首席财务官 Vasant Prabhu 在接受采访时对这一发展表示乐观。Prabhu表示，对我们来说，这表明消费者看到了将 Visa 卡与加密平台上的账户关联起来的效用，并提到了管理购买和资金支付的即时无缝能力。
加密链接卡允许客户在任何接受 Visa 的地方使用加密货币，而商家无需熟悉资产类别。他们像典型的 Visa 交易一样接收法定交易，而支付处理器在后端处理转换。 （decrypt）
美SEC拒绝富达提议的现货BTC的ETF
1月27日消息，根据美 SEC 最新公布的一份文件，其对富达提议的现货BTC ETF 表示拒绝。与其最近几个月的态度一样，SEC 针对现货BTC ETF 可能存在的欺诈、操纵投资者保护问题提出了担忧。（金色财经）
俄罗斯政府提议允许受监管的加密挖矿活动，俄罗斯总统普京对此表示支持
市场消息：俄罗斯政府提议允许受监管的加密挖矿活动，俄罗斯总统普京对此表示支持。（金十）
数据：到2022年底加密货币用户数量将突破10亿
金色财经报道，据Crypto.com的一份报告显示，2021年全球加密货币人口增加了178%，从1月的1.06亿上升到12月的2.95亿。
预计到2022年底，加密货币用户的数量将突破10亿。
该报告解释说，2021 年上半年采用加密货币是“显着的”，并补充说增长的主要驱动力是BTC。此外，“各国再也不能忽视公众对加密货币的日益增长的推动。在许多情况下，我们可能期望对加密行业采取更友好的立场。
Crypto.com 指出，希望发达国家为加密资产制定明确的法律和税收框架，以萨尔瓦多为例，更多面临高通胀经济和货币贬值的国家可能会采用加密货币作为法定货币。（news.bitcoin）
特斯拉报告显示第四季度其BTC持有量没有变化
金色财经报道，电动汽车制造商特斯拉在周三的季度收益报告中称，第四季度末特斯拉（TSLA）持有的BTC价值与上一季度末相比保持不变，为 12.6 亿美元。
在第三季度，特斯拉也没有增加或减少其BTC持有量，但被要求报告 5100 万美元的减值，以反映加密货币价格的下跌。特斯拉于 21年2 月首次宣布购买了价值 15 亿美元的BTC。
根据 FactSet 的数据，总体而言，特斯拉调整后的第四季度每股收益为 2.54 美元，而预期为 2.36 美元，收入为 177 亿美元，预期为 171 亿美元。（coindesk）.
Other news:
Inner Mongolia has implemented a differential electricity price for virtual currency “mining”, adding 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour
On January 26, the National Development and Reform Commission of Inner Mongolia WeChat public released a “Inner Mongolia autonomous region development and reform commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology hall about virtual currency” dig “an electricity tariff policy notice” (hereinafter referred to as “notice”), decided to virtual currency “dig” project implements the difference of electricity, electricity to perform “elimination” enterprise of electricity, The markup standard is 1 yuan per kilowatt hour.
In December 2021, Hainan province took the lead in implementing a differential electricity price policy for virtual currency “mining” projects. It decided to classify virtual currency “mining” activities as an industry to be eliminated and implement differential electricity price, with a price increase standard of 0.8 yuan per kilowatt hour (KWH). (Golden Finance)
Laos has granted licenses to two cryptocurrency trading platforms
Golden Finance reports that the Lao Central Bank has issued licenses to two companies for cryptocurrency transactions. The first licensed platform is the Lao Digital Asset Exchange (LDX), a joint venture between AIF Group and Phongsupthavy Group. The second is Bitqik, a subsidiary of Simuong Group.
The two companies are the only licensed and regulated entities in Laos that can offer a full range of brokerage and trading services for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. Both platforms are expected to be fully available in April. They will operate in full accordance with the central bank’s rules. (news. Bitcoins)
Report: Banks offering crypto services to more than double by 2022
January 29 — The number of banks offering crypto products and services is expected to more than double by the end of 2022, according to a new research report released by The American Banker. Forty-four percent of bank executives expect to offer encryption help to customers by the end of the year. In addition, a third of financial managers expect to actively manage their clients’ cryptocurrency portfolios, and 13% already do so.
Currently, 20% of financial advisers advise clients on cryptocurrency holdings, but that proportion is expected to double by the end of 2022. On top of that, 60% of wealth management advisers believe their clients will increase their cryptocurrency assets or start investing in cryptocurrencies by 2022. (Finbold)
U.S. Defense Secretary: No U.S. troops will be sent to Ukraine
January 29: U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said the U.S. leadership has made it clear that it has no intention of sending troops into combat in Ukraine as the crisis escalates. “President Biden made it clear that he has no intention of committing troops to a military operation in Ukraine,” Austin said at a news conference. He added, We have not sent any troops. We have put our troops on alert.” This week, 8,500 American troops were ordered to be sent to Europe in preparation for strengthening NATO’s eastern flank. (Sputnik News Agency)
Visa: Paid $2.5 billion using its encrypted link cards in fiscal q1 2022
In its earnings call on Thursday, Visa said its customers paid $2.5 billion using its encrypted link cards in the first fiscal quarter of 2022, Golden Finance reported. This is more than 70 percent of all crypto card transactions for the entire fiscal year 2021, indicating that the adoption rate of digital currencies has increased in asset payments.
Vasant Prabhu, Visa’s chief financial officer, expressed optimism about the development in an interview. “To us, it shows that consumers see utility in linking Visa cards to accounts on encrypted platforms,” Prabhu said, referring to the instant and seamless ability to manage purchases and fund payments.
Crypto link cards allow customers to use cryptocurrencies wherever Visa is accepted, without requiring merchants to be familiar with asset classes. They accept legal transactions like a typical Visa transaction, while the payment processor processes the conversion on the back end. (decrypt)
The SEC rejected Fidelity’s proposed spot BTC ETF
January 27 — The SEC rejected fidelity’s proposed spot BTC ETF, according to a newly released filing. As it has in recent months, the SEC has raised concerns about possible fraud and manipulation of investor protections in spot BTC ETFs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed a government proposal to allow regulated crypto mining
Market news: Russian President Vladimir Putin has endorsed a government proposal to allow regulated crypto mining. The (golden) ten
The numbers: Cryptocurrency users will hit 1 billion by the end of 2022
According to a report from Crypto.com, the global cryptocurrency population increased by 178% in 2021, rising from 106 million in January to 295 million in December, Golden Finance reports.
The number of cryptocurrency users is expected to top 1 billion by the end of 2022.
The report explains that the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2021 is “significant”, adding that the main driver of growth is BTC.
In addition, “Countries can no longer ignore the growing public push for cryptocurrencies. In many cases, we might expect a friendlier stance towards the crypto industry.
Crypto.com points out that it is hoped that developed countries will develop clear legal and tax frameworks for crypto assets. Citing El Salvador as an example, more countries facing high inflation economies and currency devaluation may adopt cryptocurrencies as legal tender. (news. Bitcoins)
Tesla reported no change in its BTC holdings in the fourth quarter
The value of Tesla’s (TSLA) BTC stake at the end of the fourth quarter was unchanged at $1.26 billion from the end of the previous quarter, the electric car maker said in its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, Golden Finance reported.
Tesla also did not increase or decrease its BTC holdings during the third quarter, but was required to report a $51 million impairment to reflect the drop in cryptocurrency prices. Tesla first announced its purchase of BTC worth $1.5 billion in February 21.
Overall, Tesla reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $2.54 per share versus expectations of $2.36, according to FactSet, on revenue of $17.7 billion versus expectations of $17.1 billion. (coindesk)
长期指标；用于观察我们长期境遇；牛市/熊市/结构性改变/中性状态
Long-term indicators; To see how we’re doing in the long run; Bull/bear/structural change/neutral
中期指标：用于分析我们目前处于什么阶段，在此阶段会持续多久，会面临什么情况
Interim indicators: To analyze where we are now, how long we are in this phase, what will happen
短期指标：用于分析短期市场状况；以及出现一些方向和在某前提下发生某种事件的可能性
Short-term indicators: used to analyze short-term market conditions; And the likelihood of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
ETH的DEFI生态锁仓价值
Ethereum: Total Value Locked in DeFi
各个时间段持有者状态
Realzied Cap HODL Waves
利润冲击（新模型）
Supply Shock( New Model)
美盘购买力
USDC/USDT Net Position Change
短期交易者利润状态
Supply in Profit by Short-term Holders
MVRV Z-Score（衰减率处理）
MVRV Z-Score
从大的角度来看目前加密市场的曾经主力生态之一：DEFI（去中心化金融）
Look at the big picture: DEFI (Decentralized Finance)
（下图 ETH的DEFI生态锁仓价值）
目前DEFI生态在之前的大跌中一些参与者被清算，还并没有从中得到非常快的恢复。
从宏观的角度观察各个时间阶段持有者状态
At present, some participants of DEFI ecology were liquidated in the previous crash , and there has not been very fast recovery.
Observe the state of the holder at each time stage from a macro perspective
（下图 各时段交易者持有状态）
我们可以看到在一到两年的持有者增加了其中的仓位，说明较长期的投资者信心开始初步恢复。
精细如下
We can see holders in one or two years increasing their positions, indicating that longer-term investor confidence is beginning to recover.
Detailed as follows
我们发现三到六个月的较短期交易者在之前得到了消退；他们从九月初就开始撤退，目前没有明显异动。
我们为了更精确的寻找那些持有很多利润的人对市场产生的供应冲击，建设了新的模型。
We see shorter-term traders of three to six months fading earlier; They’ve been retreating since early September, and there’s been no noticeable change.
We built new models to look more precisely for supply shocks to the market from people who hold a lot of profits.
（下图 利润冲击）
目前利润冲击已经初步下降，如果后面持续下降的话，或许对市场有不少缓和机会。
再让我们回顾一下美盘购买力的情况
At present, the profit impact has been reduced preliminarily. If it continues to decline later, there may be many opportunities to ease the market.
Let’s review the purchasing power of the U.S. market
（下图 美盘购买力）
我们并没有看到很大的向上的移动和购买动力，目前那边观望的态度可能稍多。
回到短期交易者的状态
We don’t see a lot of upward movement and buying momentum, there’s probably a bit more of a wait-and-see attitude right now.
Get back to being a short-term trader
（下图 短期交易者利润状态）
随着前段市场进一步下杀，短期交易者的利润彻底下降到零，市场随后展开了初步反弹。
我们距离底部还有多远呢？
从公允价值角度来看；
With the previous section of the market further down, the profits of short-term educators completely dropped to zero, the market then launched a preliminary rebound.
How far are we from the bottom?
From the perspective of fair value;
（下图 MVRV Z-Score）
从技术上讲，MVRV Z-Score 定义为市值与已实现市值之差与市值标准差之间的比率，即（市值 — 已实现市值）/std（市值）。
考虑到市值和行业发展以及结构变化，我们将底部进行了衰减处理。
从插针衰减率来看距离底部很近
而从历史底部10天以上来看：已经触及底部上沿。
Technically, MVRV Z-Score is (market capitalization — realized market capitalization)/STD (market capitalization).
Considering the market value and industry development and structural changes, we will be the bottom of the attenuation treatment.
Pretty close to the bottom judging by the pin decay rate
From the historical bottom of more than 10 days: has hit the upper edge of the bottom.
实体增长情况（有新进资金的）
Entities Net Growth
卖方枯竭常数
Seller Exhaustion Constant
寿命为90天的硬币销毁量
90D Coin Days Destroyed
平均输出寿命
Entity-Adjusted ASOL
巨鲸持仓
Fish to Whale Ratio
按年龄划分的持仓者仓位变化
Realized Cap HODL Waves
在最近的托底行情中，市场出现了一些较为显著的变化。
先看新增资金的动向。
The market has seen some notable changes, look at the trend of new funds first.
（下图 实体增长情况）
明显看到市场在两次回调前便有新增资金突增的情况，可能是增量资金的迹象。
It is clear that the market has seen a surge in new money before the two corrections, which may be a sign of incremental money.
(下图 卖方枯竭常数)
卖方枯竭常数依然处于中高位，但价格上升时卖方枯竭常数上升是正常现象，后续需继续观察。
接下来再深入观察一下抛压的状况。
The seller’s exhaustion constant is still at a medium and high level, but it is normal for the seller’s exhaustion constant to rise when the price rises, and further observation is needed.
Now let’s take a closer look at the situation of the sell pressure.
（下图 寿命为90天的硬币销毁量）
目前徘徊在一个指定的区间，且动作幅度不大。
再来看最近抛出的筹码平均年龄是多少。
At present, it is hovering in a specified range, and the amplitude of action is not large.
Let’s look at the average age of the most recent chips sold.
（下图 平均输出寿命）
平均输出寿命年龄逐渐降低，目前平均输出寿命为25天左右。筹码较为年轻。
再看巨鲸的持仓路径，依然在减持。
（下图 巨鲸持仓）
The average output life age is gradually decreasing, and the current average output life is about 25 days. The chips are younger.
Look at the whales’ position path, still reducing.
目前市场可能有较为神秘的买家在托住盘面，我们试着去找他们在哪。
来看按年龄划分的持仓者仓位变化。
There may be a mystery buyer holding at the moment, and we’re trying to find out where they are.
Let’s look at the change in holdings by age.
（下图 按年龄划分的持仓者仓位变化）
上周观察的持仓年龄一星期以下的交易者停止了增持动作，静静观望。
Last week traders under the age of one week were overweighting, now they stopped, quietly wait and see.
永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值的比例
Perp OI/Market Cap
新实体数量
No. of New Entities
存款地址数量
No. of Addresses Depositing
短期持有者供应情况
Supply Hold by Short-Term Traders
STH-SOPR
短期交易者的盈亏比率
STH Profit/Loss Ratio
实体调整的短期交易者净未实现盈亏比
Entity-Adjusted STH NUPL
经过一周的调整，我们先来回顾一下衍生品市场风险
After a week of correction, let’s take a look at derivatives risk
(下图 永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值比例)
目前我们可以看到永续期货未平仓合约与冰糖橙市值的比例，该值目前低于1.3，这代表着衍生品市场风险有所下降，相对来说目前现货较衍生品对市场影响占据主导地位。
同样我们也可以观察到该值是缓慢下降，意味着交易者在衍生品市场的信心受到打击逐渐下降，以观察市场等待新的方向出现。
交易者在衍生品市场的妥协，大概率意味着暂时没有大量的交易者对某一个方向完全的看好，也代表着再一次出现去杠杆事件的概率减小。
我们来回归现货市场观察短期内交易者发生了哪些行为？
首先我们来看短期内资金的意愿是什么？
At present, we can see the ratio of open interest in perpetuity futures to the market value of BTC, which is currently below 1.3. This represents a reduction in risk in the derivatives market.
We can also observe that the value is a slow decline, meaning that traders’ confidence in the derivatives market is gradually reduced, to watch the market for the emergence of a new direction.
The compromise of traders in the derivative market means that there are not a large number of traders who are completely optimistic about a certain direction for the time being, and it also means that the probability of another deleveraging event is reduced.
So let’s go back to the spot market and see what happened to traders in the short term?
First of all, what is the tendency of money in the short run?
（下图 新实体数量）
新实体增长数量意味着是否有新的资金进入市场，当市场出现明显上涨时，交易者有着高昂的情绪，带动增量资金入场，这一般出现在牛市中。而在熊市当中短时间内的新实体增长，会为短期带来小幅度反弹。
目前新实体数量略微上升，短期内小幅度资金进场，带动市场价格上升，但是否意味着短期回暖，我们还需综合其他指标观察。
接下来我们观察存款地址数。以进一步观察资金意愿。
The amount of new physical growth means whether there is new money coming into the market. When the market rises significantly, traders are in high spirits, leading to incremental money entering the market, which usually occurs in bull markets. A short period of new physical growth in a bear market can lead to a small rebound in the short term.
At present, the number of new entities is rising slightly. In the short term, a small amount of capital enters the market, driving up the market price. But whether it means a short-term recovery, we need to observe other indicators.
Now let’s look at the number of deposit addresses. To further observe the willingness of funds.
（下图 存款地址数量）
存款地址数量是资金存入交易所的唯一地址。通常，存款地址数上升意味着存入交易所的资金上涨，而这一部分资金大概是为了抛售，一般是获利了结或是对当下市场恐慌亏本出售。
我们观察一年内存款地址的数量变化，往往是当市场上升时存款地址数量上升，这意味着交易者获利出售。而目前我们观察到存款地的数量一直呈现下降的趋势，这意味着目前大多数交易者不愿意抛出。
同样侧面来说，当下的市场更多的是愿意选择持有的，进入一个积累的阶段，对于短期之内抛压的力量将大概率不会出现大量抛压的情况。
综合增量资金和资金抛售的情况，我们可以看到目前资金的意愿是短期内有一定资金进入市场，带动市场小幅度反弹，但更愿意选择持有，仍然等待市场明确的方向，大概率不会有大幅度抛压，以造成市场进一步下跌。
接下来我们来观察短期交易者获利和情绪方面的情况。
The number of deposit addresses is the only address where funds are deposited with the exchange. Typically, a rise in deposit addresses means a rise in the amount of money deposited on exchanges, which is presumably meant to be sold, usually to take profits or sell at a loss in response to the current market panic.
We look at the change in the number of deposit addresses over the course of a year, and it tends to be when the market is rising that the number of deposit addresses goes up, meaning traders sell at a profit. At the moment we are seeing a downward trend in the number of deposit places, which means that most traders are reluctant to sell at the moment.
On the same side, the current market is more willing to choose to hold, enter a stage of accumulation, for the short-term selling pressure force will most likely not appear a lot of selling pressure.
Comprehensive incremental funds and capital selling, we can see that the current willingness of funds is that some funds will enter the market in the short term, leading to a small rebound of the market, but more willing to choose to hold, still waiting for the clear direction of the market, there will be a large probability of selling pressure, in order to cause the market to fall further.
Let’s look at short-term traders’ profits and sentiment.
（下图 短期持有者供应情况）
我们可以观察短期持有者持有情况，我们可以看到一个多月以来短期持有者几乎没有太大的变化情况。
这意味着目前复杂的市场，长期交易者和短期交易者，筹码洗牌之后，长期交易者并没有将手中大量的筹码转移到短期交易者中，通常短期交易者开始重新积累上升时，将会带动市场上。
若情绪高涨将会扩大对市场的影响。但目前未出现这种明显的迹象，也意味着短期之内仍要持续调整。
接下来我们来观察短期交易者SOPR。
We can look at the holdings of short-term holders, and we can see that short term holders have not changed much over a month.
This means that the current complex market, long-term traders and short-term traders, after the chip shuffling, long-term traders did not transfer a large number of chips to short-term traders, usually short-term traders start to accumulate again when rising, will drive the market.
If sentiment is high, it will have a wider impact on the market. But there are no obvious signs of this, which means that in the short term there will still be continued adjustment.
Let’s look at the short term trader SOPR.
（下图 STH-SOPR）
三个月以来 sopr ，长期处于1以下，这意味着在这段时间内，部分短期交易者在亏本出售，目前该值缩于1附近调整，这意味着市场目前还没有充足的上涨动力，复杂的市场变化情况导致部分短期交易者亏本出售。
具体的我们来看短期交易者的盈亏比率。
In the past three months, SOPR has been below 1 for a long time, which means that during this period, some short-term traders are selling at a loss. At present, the value of SOPR has shrunk near 1 for adjustment, which means that the market does not have sufficient upward momentum at present, and complicated market changes lead to some short-term traders selling at a loss.
Specifically, let’s look at the profit and loss ratio of short-term traders.
（下图 短期交易者的盈亏比率）
目前因为比值位于0.16左右，这代表着有84%的短期交易者处于亏损状态。
短期复杂的市场，从盈亏比率上来看，也对短期交易者的信心造成了比较大的打击。
目前我们需要等待市场明确的反转带动短期交易者积极参与市场，为市场带来大量的新进资金，以推动市场上行。
最后我们来观察一下短期交易者的情绪。
At the moment, with the ratio around 0.16, 84% of short-term traders are in the red.
The short-term complexity of the market, in terms of profit and loss ratio, also caused a relatively large blow to the confidence of short-term traders.
For now, we need to wait for a clear reversal in the market to lead short-term traders to actively participate in the market and bring a lot of fresh money into the market to drive the market up.
Finally, let’s look at the mood of short-term traders.
(下图 实体调整的短期交易者净未实现盈亏比)
我们可以看到，情绪出现小幅度回暖，但仍然处于害怕的状态。我们可以看到这类似于2021年5月到8月的调整阶段，那我们仍然需要确定有充足的新进资金带动上涨，才能带动短期交易者的信心回暖。
短期之内我们观察到有初步的反转信号，仍需进一步观察是否会明确方向。
We can see a slight improvement in mood, but still in a state of fear. We can see that this is similar to the correction phase from May to August 2021, so we still need to be sure that there is enough fresh money to drive the rally before the confidence of short-term traders returns.
In the short term, we have observed preliminary reversal signals, and we need to see if it will clarify the direction.
消息面总结：
Summary of the Fundamentals:
中长期：长期维持之前判断不变；中期美联储1、2季度政策的不确定性仍然较大，金融市场以及币市中期仍可能有大幅的波动。
Medium to long-term
Long-term, previous judgment remain unchanged; In the medium term, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s policies in the first and second quarters is still large, and the financial market and currency market may still have large fluctuations in the medium term.
短期：短期内，俄罗斯局势企稳，3月加息情况明朗，俄乌情况暂时稳定，短期内利空基本都兑现，本周金融市场应该会比较平稳。
Short term:
In the short term, the situation in Russia stabilized, the march interest rate hike is clear, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is stable for the time being, the short-term bearish news are basically realized, the financial market should be relatively stable this week.
市场从长期看：
The market in the long term:
1. 美盘购买力并未起色多少。
2. 利润冲击开始初步下降。
3. 从公允价值角度来讲，不涉及插针极端最低情况下，加上时代改变加入衰减率变量，或许前段3.3万美金价格已经触碰到了底部上沿。
4. DEFI市场修复并不是很快，1–2年交易者计划增持，3–6月偏短期交易者从2021年9月退出之后依旧观望。
1. The U.S. market’s purchasing power has not improved much.
2. The profit shock begins to decline tentatively.
3. From the perspective of fair value, the price of $33,000 may have touched the bottom of the upper edge of the price without the insertion of pins and with the change of times and the addition of attenuation rate variable.
4. DEFI market repair is not very quick, 1–2 year traders plan to increase their holdings, short term traders from March to June remain on the sidelines after exiting in September 2021.
市场定调：中性，非大牛市非大熊市，或许3.3万美金已触及底部上沿。
Market tone: neutral, not a big bull market, not a big bear market, maybe $33,000 has hit the top edge of the bottom.
市场从中期看：
初步看市场稳住了，我们需要关注三个点：
已抛出的筹码平均寿命为25天左右，且这次增持的筹码年龄在两星期以下。
卖方枯竭常数处于中高位，需要关注买盘力量是否选择承接，目前两星期以下增持的交易者选择观望。
巨鲸观望后选择抛出，且反弹后卖方枯竭常数处于中高位，需提防谨慎。目前33000美金底部可能承接者为新进资金。
市场定调:中性。各类型交易者目前还存在分歧，市场会在一定区间内震荡。
Market in the medium term:
As the market remains stable, we need to pay attention to the following three points:
1. The average life of sold chips is about 25 days, and the age of this increase is less than two weeks.
2. The exhaustion constant of sellers is at a medium-high level, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether buying forces choose to undertake. Traders who increase their holdings less than two weeks at present choose to wait and see.
3. The whale chose to sell after watching, and after the rebound, the seller’s exhaustion constant is at a medium level high, need to be cautious. At present, the bottom of $33,000 may undertake new funds.
Market setting tone: neutral. Different types of traders are still divided, the market will be in a certain range of volatility.
市场从短期看：
The market in the short term:
1. 衍生品市场风险有所下降，目前现货市场较衍生品对市场的影响更占据主导地位。
2. 现货市场短期有出现略微的新进资金，带动市场小幅度反弹，但目前大部分的交易者是更愿意选择持有，同时抛售的压力再次出现极大抛压的概率较小。
3. 短期交易者的持仓情况在一个月以内并没有发生大的变化
市场定调：短期内推动市场上行以扭转市场明确的方向仍然缺乏充足的动力，但也不会对市场造成很大的抛压。
1. Derivatives market risks have decreased, and the spot market is now more dominant than derivatives in terms of market impact.
2. The spot market has seen a slight inflow of new funds in the short term, which led to a slight rebound in the market. However, at present, most traders are more willing to hold, and the probability of extreme selling pressure appearing again is small.
3. Short-term traders’ positions do not change significantly in less than a month
Market call: There is still not enough momentum to push the market up to reverse the market’s clear direction in the short term, but it’s not going to put a lot of selling pressure on the market either.
风险提示：
以上均为市场讨论和探索，对投资不具有指向性意见；请谨慎看待和预防市场黑天鹅风险。
此报告为“金蛋crypto”研究院提供：
金蛋日记；拾年 ；elk crypto； Leah； Allie
Disclaimer:
All the above are market discussion and exploration, and does not contain directional investment guidance; Please be cautious and guard against the market black swan risk.
This report is provided by the “Golden Egg Crypto” Research:
金蛋日记；拾年 ；elk crypto； Leah ; Allie
