GM PRO DOers!
Deciding when to sell is going to be the hardest part of this cycle.
This is true because you won’t know when the top of the cycle is, but also because your emotions will be flying high at the riskiest times of the cycle.
Unfortunately, humans are terrible at controlling their greed and we get the most euphoric at the time we should be the most concerned (and vice versa).
I discussed this in detail during my Top 5 Tips For The Crypto Bull Market PRO report.
But selling is tough because there are a lot of questions to be answered… 🤔
How do you know when it's the top?
How much should you sell?
When do you buy back in?
What if you sell too early and miss most of the gains?
What if this is the “supercycle” and we don’t have a bear market again?
How do I manage paying a hefty bill in taxes?
Maybe I should just hold and never sell…
During the bull market when your portfolio is going up 100% and down 40% on a monthly basis and Twitter or the media are predicting all sorts of things about where these assets are going next, these questions become even harder to answer.
They become a serious area of stress.
Well today, before all that stress arises, we’re going to develop a plan. A plan that will account for all the questions above and make this cycle a breeze for you.
…not really, it's going to be absolutely wild and tough and there’s nothing you can do about it! But, failing to plan is planning to fail and this cycle… we’re not going to fail!
So let’s take a moment to think through selling and create a plan that will set us up for success.
Some Context For This Cycle ♻️
Before we start to build a plan and make any decisions, there are a few things we need to comprehend about any crypto cycle (…or investment for that matter).
The first thing is that nobody has a crystal ball.
No one can predict the top.
No one can predict prices.
No one can predict the timing of these cycles.
No one can predict if this will even be a “cycle”.
It doesn't matter what people say on Twitter or in their newsletter or even if they picked the exact top of the last cycle (it would have been pure luck). It’s all about probabilities.
Even I predicted that markets would turn back in October, when Bitcoin was still sub $28k…
But I didn’t predict this turning point because it was a fact… I predicted it because based on what many indicators showed, a market surge was a probability.
Same goes for when I predicted that the top of this cycle will be October 2025 in the ‘Price Predictions Report…
This isn’t a fact, it’s a probability, and a very little one at that.
The point is that It’s our job to understand these probabilities, update them on an ongoing basis and place our bets as best we can.
But nothing in this cycle is a certainty, even if it appears it is or people tell you it is.
What this means is that throughout this cycle we have to be ok with uncertainty. We have to lean into that.
We need to go into this plan knowing that there is a high probability that we will not sell at the exact top. That we will leave gains on the table. That we will miss opportunities. That this will NOT be perfect.
When you try to be “perfect” in your investment, that is when you end up making mistakes.
If your goal is 100x this cycle, that’s all fine and dandy, but you need to be flexible and realize that you might not (probably won’t) achieve that.
But it would be stupid to not at least allow yourself a 10x or a 20x at the expense of your 100x.
What Are Your Goals?
To start building a plan, we first need to start with our goals.
Why are we investing in crypto this cycle?
Is it to build a retirement fund that will be used 30 years from now?
Is it for a down payment on a house?
Is it to purchase a car?
Is it to get out of debt?
Is it to generate passive income?
Maybe it’s a combination of these.
Whatever it is, you first need to understand what your goals are and then also separate them into timelines. Short, medium and long term goals.
If you have $2k invested and your goal is to get out of your $20k debt, buy a home and have a retirement fund, that's fine. But realistically, you might not achieve all of that this cycle.
Maybe you can get yourself out of debt this cycle and then focus on leaving yourself enough at the end of this cycle to continue growing the pie during the next cycle.
I should also note, you need to make realistic goals. You more than likely won’t turn $2k into $2 million in the next year. I hope you do, but the probabilities are heavily against that.
Here’s my plan… In 2025 I hope to have enough to:
Purchase a Tesla Model Y = $50k USD.
Purchase coastal land in Nicaragua = $30k USD (ya, it’s crazy cheap!)
Have a down payment on a second home in Canada = $150k
Finally, I have no intention of selling all of my crypto. I would feel naked without it!
I plan to hold a large sum of my crypto long term to generate yield (through staking) and build a retirement fund.
My goal is to have 7 figures worth of crypto earning me yield at the bottom of the next cycle.
For context, I’m starting this cycle with 6 figures worth of crypto so while this goal is not easy, it’s also not unattainable.
A 5-10x at the top, with a proper sell plan along the way will do the trick for me.
So to wrap up this section, write down your goals with exact numbers.
In my example, I know I want to sell $230k USD worth of crypto this cycle and leave the rest to earn passive yield.
Now I have a starting point to work from.
Do the same right now and then continue reading to see how we’re going to do it.
Segmenting Your Portfolio
Your portfolio should be segmented into 3 categories in terms of selling:
Crypto you plan to hold long-term (10+years)
Crypto you plan to sell into fiat
Crypto you plan to trade throughout the cycle (into other crypto or into stablecoins)
For segment #1, it’s pretty straight forward. Put it in a hardware wallet and don’t touch it. If it’s $ETH or $SOL then stake it in low risk protocols and forget about it.
Earn your “risk-free yield” and stay away from all DeFi protocols or trading it. This is an easy long-term win.
For segment #2, I’m ready and willing to sell when it reaches enough for me to purchase the first 3 things on my list.
I know I won’t sell it at the exact top and in fact, my plan is to sell it well before the top.
What this means is that if I think $ETH has the potential to go to $10k USD or $15k USD this cycle, I plan to sell it at $8k USD regardless.
That’s a 4x from the prices at the time of writing, which means to reach my $230k goal, I need $57,500 in $ETH in this segment.
While it doesn’t guarantee my success, it makes my success highly probable. Maybe I leave some gains on the table, but that’s ok.
I’d rather leave this cycle with a Tesla and land in Nicaragua than risk it trying to sell the exact top and end up riding my assets down 75%!
Everyone thought $ETH was 100% going to $10k last cycle and $BTC was going to $100k… neither of them made it there.
$ETH only went 50% of its consensus prediction and Bitcoin was 30% off reaching its consensus prediction.
Many ended up taking no profits last cycle even though they were early and could have made a fortune!
PRO TIP: If you have a set amount of crypto you know you plan to sell back into fiat, I recommend you purchase the $ETH or $BTC ETFs or funds that are available on TradFi exchanges in a tax-free savings account, rather than actual crypto.
Each country has their own tax free investment vehicles, so please do your own research on what options you have (if you have them).
If you are selling crypto, then you need to take taxes into consideration. The last thing you want to do is give the government X% of your hard-earned profits.
That’s why although investing in “paper crypto” is frowned upon by crypto OGs, it can still be a very useful asset in your overall portfolio.
Of course, your long-term holdings should be real crypto and in a self-custodial wallet, but this isn’t needed for assets you know you are going to sell in the short to mid-term.
For this segment you can either sell at a specific dollar number or dollar cost average out of your positions (more on this in the next section).
For segment #3, if you want to include this segment, choose a small % of your portfolio that you will either trade into different assets throughout the cycle or sell into stablecoins or the major assets ($BTC and $ETH) at some point in the cycle.
This segment is generally made up of your higher risk assets that you don’t want to be holding into the next bear market.
You can convert this by following the same steps as I’ll explain in the next section (my recommendation) or fulfill your inner degen and get risky with it and try to time the top.
The riskier you go with it, the smaller % of your portfolio it should be.
Ok, now that we understand the basics of the when to sell plan, let’s dive into a bit more of the specifics.
How And When To Sell? 🤔
The above strategy is simple. Choose a specific price that is some % lower than what you estimate the top will be and sell when it reaches that number.
This removes all of the noise of a bull run and significantly improves your chances of reaching your goals and securing some serious profits.
However, maybe you don’t have a specific $ amount in mind that you want at the end of the cycle like I do.
Maybe your goal is to simply make as much as you can this cycle, but you have nothing specific you want/need to purchase with your investments.
That’s fine too. What I recommend for anyone who is not as specific as what I explained above is for you to Dollar Cost Average out of your investments at a certain point in the cycle.
Here’s how this works:
If you read my How To Build Your Portfolio For The Crypto Bull Run PRO report, you should have your portfolio set up and then each month are adding a % of your income to your investments.
Let’s say for example that of your extra income each month, you put 80% of that in crypto and save 20% in cash. Throughout the bull run, you may want to alter these percentages to help you manage risk.
When major assets like $BTC and $ETH are well below previous all time highs, the risk is much lower than when they reach previous all-time-highs and beyond.
A wise strategy is to switch your percentages once we reach previous all-time highs to maybe investing 50%-50% crypto and cash or even 20% crypto and 80% cash.
Then, once we reach numbers well above all-time highs, it may be time for you to begin taking profits.
Rather than selling your entire segment #2 at $8k $ETH like the example above, use this number instead to signal the point at which you begin to take profits.
At this point, if all or some of your monthly DCA is going into your segment #2, stop adding to it and begin selling 10-20% of your investments each month or bi-weekly.
The same rules apply for dollar cost averaging into your crypto as they do averaging out of it. Set a timeframe and simply sell regardless of price action.
This will allow you to prolong taking profits and potentially take some profits closer to the top.
However, if the top comes sooner than everyone predicts, then at least you are still able to take profits before assets take a dive into the bear market.
FYI: The percentages and timeframes depend on your specific situation and risk profile, so I won’t give you any more insight on that.
Also, the example I keep using of $8k ETH doesn’t need to be what you use either. Feel free to benchmark a different asset or choose different predictions than me.
By the way, this doesn’t mean you need to stop dollar cost averaging all together. You can still continue to DCA into your segment #1 long-term portfolio while you’re selling out of your segment #2 short-term portfolio.
The ups and downs of cycles matter much less for assets you’re not planning to sell for the next decade.
This can be extremely beneficial in case we get the supercycle and never see another big 80%+ dip in crypto.
Again, this is all about mitigating risk wherever possible, while maintaining exposure to crypto and taking profits at what appears to be opportunistic times.
The When To Sell Plan 🤑
I can’t stress enough how important it is to lean into uncertainty during this cycle.
Although it seems like certain people have it all figured out, or maybe you even feel like you have it all figured out (I thought I did in my first cycle), the reality is no one does.
Having a sell plan and sticking to it will give you the best probabilities of walking away from this cycle with real profits, something many in crypto end up not achieving.
Here’s a quick summary of everything I explained above.
Sort your portfolio into 3 segments:
1. Long-Term Crypto Holdings
Hold major crypto assets in a hardware wallet and add to this segment on a monthly basis.
If it’s $ETH or $SOL, stake it with decentralized protocols but don’t use any additional DeFI protocols.
Don’t touch these assets this cycle.
2. Crypto You Plan To Sell Into Fiat For Real World Purchases
Do your research and make your best assumptions at where $BTC and/or $ETH will top out this cycle.
Take 60%-80% of those numbers and use that as your benchmark to begin selling back into FIAT.
Either sell it all at once or dollar cost average out ongoing once that benchmark is reached (be ok with missing out on some gains).
Put this segment in a tax free savings account whenever possible to eliminate the need to pay taxes on your profits.
3. Crypto Trading Segment
For most people, the best thing you can do is set and forget your investments. Trying to trade during these cycles is a recipe for disaster.
But, if you feel the need, take a small % of your portfolio (<10%) and play around with it. Expect this part of your portfolio to go to 0.
Use the same strategies as segment #2 to start rotating your shitcoins into the major crypto assets or into stablecoins.
I don’t care what you’re investing in, all of them will do terribly in the coming bear market.
Don’t be the last one holding those bags!
This plan is extremely simple, however, most people will still fuck it up. Why? Euphoria and greed… Plain and simple.
When $ETH hits $8k, Crypto Twitter will be a disgusting place. Everyone will be sharing how rich they are and predicting that everything will go to the moon and that the crypto supercycle is here.
We will all be euphoric and dreaming about how many millions we will have at the top. This makes it EXTREMELY hard to execute the plan for segment #2.
You won’t want to sell any of your crypto at the riskiest time. Just like many didn’t want to buy crypto at the least riskiest time (bottom of the bear).
This is why we need to have a plan. To remove all noise and emotions and allow us to simply execute.
Keep this in mind in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
Stay tuned in to Web3 Academy PRO and we will help you navigate this cycle and do our best to guide you around when to start selling and taking your profits.
Good luck out there, friends!
Thanks for reading. And remember, you're strong, you’re powerful, you’re alpha! ❤️
How'd you feel about our read today?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kyle Reidhead
Founder of Web3 Academy and Impact3
Find him on Twitter
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions or taking any action based on the content.
