Sonic Points APR Study

TL;DL

under the assumption of 1.1B TVL, APR is 18%.

Airdrop details

refers:

https://docs.soniclabs.com/funding/sonic-airdrop

https://docs.soniclabs.com/funding/sonic-airdrop/sonic-gems

The S airdrop will distribute 190,500,000 S tokens.

37.5% of the total airdrop is allocated to Gems, 62.5% to point holders.

A total of 1,680,000 Gems will be distributed during season 1. Out of this, 262,500 Gems are pre-allocated to Sonic Boom winners.

The first season of the S airdrop becomes claimable six months after Sonic’s launch, around June 2025. At that time, 25% of your allocation is immediately available, while the remaining 75% vests over 270 days as NFT positions.

Unlike Sonic Points, which are airdrop points designed for users, Gems empower apps to claim liquid S tokens instead of vested NFT airdrop position. Once the S tokens are claimed, it’s the app’s responsibility to determine how they’re distributed to their users.

examples
examples

Stats

If you need real-time data, please contact me

{
  "timestamp": "2025-02-27T17:00:00",
  "total_users_earning_points": 766259,
  "total_sonic_points": 24360716052284.9,
  "average_sonic_points_per_user": 116028.279605745,
  "total_users_earning_passive_liquidity_points": 766259,
  "total_passive_liquidity_points": 523734627359.908,
  "average_passive_liquidity_points_per_user": 2498.23450064089,
  "total_users_earning_active_liquidity_points": 18926,
  "total_active_liquidity_points": 23836981424967.8,
  "average_active_liquidity_points_per_user": 26184644.2600339,
  "total_protocols_earning_gems_score": 17,
  "total_sonic_gems_score": 95030203680342.1,
  "average_gem_score_per_protocol": 5279455760019.01
}
{
  "timestamp": "2025-03-02T11:00:00",
  "total_users_earning_points": 787258,
  "total_sonic_points": 789437772503.283,
  "average_sonic_points_per_user": 3169.21731827064,
  "total_users_earning_passive_liquidity_points": 787258,
  "total_passive_liquidity_points": 564475622556.447,
  "average_passive_liquidity_points_per_user": 2269.16456271368,
  "total_users_earning_active_liquidity_points": 26004,
  "total_active_liquidity_points": 224962149970.207,
  "average_active_liquidity_points_per_user": 184632.957661224,
  "total_protocols_earning_gems_score": 19,
  "total_sonic_gems_score": 551515292337.588,
  "average_gem_score_per_protocol": 25068876924.4358
}
{
  "timestamp": "2025-03-02T21:00:00",
  "total_users_earning_points": 792653,
  "total_sonic_points": 794603255546.067,
  "average_sonic_points_per_user": 3113.88396736202,
  "total_users_earning_passive_liquidity_points": 792653,
  "total_passive_liquidity_points": 569641105613.4,
  "average_passive_liquidity_points_per_user": 2235.2499281656,
  "total_users_earning_active_liquidity_points": 26004,
  "total_active_liquidity_points": 224962149970.21,
  "average_active_liquidity_points_per_user": 184632.957661226,
  "total_protocols_earning_gems_score": 19,
  "total_sonic_gems_score": 551515292337.589,
  "average_gem_score_per_protocol": 25068876924.4358
}
{
  "timestamp": "2025-03-04T04:00:00",
  "total_users_earning_points": 809045,
  "total_sonic_points": 799745600207.431,
  "average_sonic_points_per_user": 2918.8329966195,
  "total_users_earning_passive_liquidity_points": 809045,
  "total_passive_liquidity_points": 584010041977.244,
  "average_passive_liquidity_points_per_user": 2134.11001266801,
  "total_users_earning_active_liquidity_points": 27513,
  "total_active_liquidity_points": 215735558260.785,
  "average_active_liquidity_points_per_user": 168689.558579101,
  "total_protocols_earning_gems_score": 20,
  "total_sonic_gems_score": 469937707674.926,
  "average_gem_score_per_protocol": 20432074246.7359
}

https://defillama.com/chain/Sonic?groupBy=daily&stables=false

Date TVL

3.2 697.19m

3.3 684.54m

3.4 583.57m

As we can see, the total score has suddenly taken a drastic cut, and Sony is presumably having an anti-witching

Value of each Sonic Points

The S airdrop will distribute 190,500,000 S tokens to incentivize users of both Opera and the Sonic chain. The airdrop will be distributed using two main approaches, Sonic Points and Sonic Gems.

For the time being, we don't know the ratio of airdrop allocation between protocol and user. Assume that the airdrops obtained by the protocol will be redistributed to the users based on their interactions. Therefore it is reasonable to take the total user points to estimate the value of each point.

Valuepoint=Sprice1905000000.625/PointtotalValue_{point} = S_{price} * 190500000 *0.625 / Point_{total}

$$Value_{gem} = \frac{S_{price}1905000000.375 }{1680000} = S_{price} * 42.52$$

Farming APR of Sonic Points

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J-o_8CilJRLGmL2e7TlqolWTKynafjuEagRvQrYQrSQ/htmlview#gid=0

Hold scUSD can earn Passive Points (6x) + Active Points(6x)

Use my wallet for test

wallet
wallet

If you need real-time data, please contact me


{
"user_activity_last_detected":"2025-02-27T17:00:00",
"sonic_points":10.338115224707964,
"loyalty_multiplier":1,
"ecosystem_points":10.338115224707964,
"passive_liquidity_points":10.338115224707964,
"active_liquidity_points":0,
"rank":234090
}
{
"user_activity_last_detected":"2025-03-02T21:00:00",
"sonic_points":120.83008898297132,
"loyalty_multiplier":1,
"ecosystem_points":120.83008898297132,
"passive_liquidity_points":90.80226898297128,
"active_liquidity_points":30,
"rank":17897
}

The change in wallet scores allows us to calculate that HOLD scUSD can add up to 12 points per day, where PASSIVE scores are settled in real time, and ACTIVE scores are settled on a daily basis (6 points)

Formula

Defination

  • (P1,P2)( P_1, P_2 ): Total Sonic Points at the start and end time.

  • (U1,U2)( U_1, U_2 ): Total users earning points at the start and end time.

  • (T1,T2)( T_1, T_2 ): TVL at the start and end time.

  • (Δd)( \Delta d ): Time interval (in days).

Average Points Daily GrowthP2P1Δd\frac{P_2 - P_1}{\Delta d}

Average Points Per User Daily Growth

P2P1Uavg×Δd\frac{P_2 - P_1}{U_{\text{avg}} \times \Delta d}

Uavg=U1+U22U_{\text{avg}} = \frac{U_1 + U_2}{2}

Average Points Per TVL Daily Growth

P2P1Tavg×Δd\frac{P_2 - P_1}{T_{\text{avg}} \times \Delta d}

Tavg=T1+T22T_{\text{avg}} = \frac{T_1 + T_2}{2}

Based on current data, we can calculate the results:

Average Points Daily Growth = 6033850363.4

Average Points Per User Daily Growth = 7559.78

Average Points Per TVL Daily Growth = 9.42

if we hold x scUSD for t days , price of S is p , the last tvl is v

current total points = 799745600207.431

current tvl = 583.57m

the end total points = (v+vcurrent)29.42t+799745600207.431+12xt\frac{(v+v_{current})}{2} * 9.42 * t + 799745600207.431 + 12 * x *t

profit =12xtpointsend190500000p0.625 \frac{12xt}{points_{end}} * 190500000 * p * 0.625

apr =profitxt365 \frac{profit}{x*t} * 365

the result is:

APR
APR