Predicting what will happen is easy, predicting when it will happen is hard, predicting precisely how it will happen is even harder. Consider weather: We can be fairly confident that it will rain. When exactly will it rain? Okay that's the real game now. What will the preceding contributing conditions be that will result in rainy climate? Good luck. Consider finance: I predict there will be another Ethereum bull run. When? I don't know. How will it happen? Not sure I'll even know *after* it happens! I suspect a lot of people lose money on open prediction markets because they draw confidence from knowing what will happen but don't temper it with inconfidence of when it will happen *and* with what will happen along the way (contributing volatility along the way).