castellanos on the verge of getting released with 1 year / $20m left on his contract
a quick breakdown on how he performed over his 5 year / $100m deal with the phillies:
- after a career year with the reds (3.7 fwar), the phillies signed castellanos hoping to capture his prime years
- instead, the phillies caught his decline where he’s produced 0.9 fwar over the first 4 years of his contract
- despite moving from one hitters park to another, castellanos couldn’t replicate his hard hit rate and fastball run value during his career year
in his first year with the phillies:
- hard hit rate: dropped from 46.9% down to 35.1%
- fastball run value: dropped from 19 to 2
- k & bb rates: both trended in the wrong directions
one of the main reasons for this decline is likely castellanos regressing towards his expected averages and pitchers throwing less fastballs and more offspeed to him which he struggled to adjust to