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the reds probably got one of the better bargains (and fits) of the offseason—eugenio suarez for a year at $15m a quick breakdown on why this is such a great fit: 1. the reds are desperate for power in 2025, the reds finished 21st in the league in home runs despite player in great american ball park (gabp), the 2nd most hitter friendly park in the league. the reds only hit 167 hrs as a team, saurez hit almost 30% of that total by himself. suarez mashed 49 hrs between the diamondbacks and mariners, playing half his games in t-mobile, the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. suarez saw a 200+ point ops drop after his trade from arizona (.896 ops -> .683 ops) 2. gabp is the perfect ballpark for suarez suarez is an extreme pulled fly-ball hitter (28.6%) who ranked 5th among qualified right handed hitters last year. gabp sports a short left field porch (328 ft vs 331 ft in t-mobile) and cozy left-center field (379 ft vs 390 ft) that are suited for suarez's batted ball profile playing half his games in gabp should reduce his potential regression and give him power numbers closer to his time in arizona. zips dc currently has him projected to hit 35 hrs for the reds this year 3. the reds need protection for elly de la cruz the reds lineup is light on offensive based on zips dc projections. all hitters except for edlc and suarez projects to be league average or below (< 100 wrc+) in theory, edlc should get better pitches to hit with suarez hitting behind him. this was something the reds really lacked and may have contributed to edlc's regression in 2025 and to top this all off, suarez is on a one year deal. if the reds fall out of contention mid-season, suarez is a great trade chip that could net them a decent prospect or two from a playoff contender

industry s4 ep4. discuss. we can keep it in the comments to prevent any spoilers

why is team puerto rico considering withdrawing from the wbc over insurance? player insurance is one of many topics rarely covered in sports. these policies allow teams to recover a portion of a players salary in the event of a covered injury. as contracts grow larger and larger, insurance has become a significant portion of financial planning for teams. insurance is so important that it can impact disabled list decisions and free agent signings. here's how player insurance works in mlb: - teams determines their individual risk tolerances + select which players they want to get coverage for - coverage usually ranges between 50-80% of a player's contract value - premiums can run as high as 10% of a players annual salary w/ coverage over a 3 year term like any policy, insurance companies will review player medicals, add exclusions (like for pre-existing conditions), and approve or deny coverage for each player a few recent examples of how this works: - in 2001: albert belle surffered a career-ending hip injury and the orioles recouped $23m of his $39m contract via insurance - in 2009: the diamondbacks withdrew a 3-year $50m+ offer to brandon webb after insurance refused to cover his pitching arm - in 2012: the nationals shut down stephen strasburg amid a playoff push due to concerns the insurance company may not cover an injury due to existing health concerns so, how is insurance driving team puerto rico to potentially withdraw? - wbc specific policies cover 100% of a players salary over 2 years (for position players) and 4 years (for pitchers) for any injury suffered during the wbc - mlb's insurance partner denied coverage for 8-10 players on the team puerto rico roster including lindor, edwin diaz, correa, and berrios - some of the coverage denials came a few days before wbc roster freeze which gives puerto rico no time to find replacements team puerto rico is currently working directly with mlb to re-review cases and find private insurance for players to allow them to play in the wbc. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7012509/2026/01/31/wbc-insurance-puerto-rico-francisco-lindor/

i have mixed feelings about the a’s, but they’re positioned quite well for vegas (2028) by locking up their core now, the a’s will have a good amount of spending power to shore up the rotation even with some splurging, the a’s can still operate like a small market team while being competitive in a big market

it’s always interesting when the press leak that a player turned down a “record breaking” contract the reds offered elly de la cruz (edlc) a contract that eclipses the franchise breaking $225m / 10 year deal that votto signed this paints edlc as greedy for turning down $225+ but edlc is likely already worth way more than $22.5m + average annual value (aav) how much more is he worth? let’s check a few comps based on edlc’s 4.3 fwar this year - willy adames produced 4.0 fwar making $26m aav - bo bichette produced 3.8 fwar and signed a $42m aav contract this offseason - dansby swanson produced 3.3 fwar making $25m aav edlc is also 3 years younger than bichette (27) who is the youngest player in the comps considering ~$10m per war is the benchmark, edlc is likely worth a contract similar to bichette especially when you factor in age and ceiling (edlc produced 6+ fwar last year). you could even argue, he’s in line for a soto/judge like contract if everything aligns for him. so, all in all edlc likely turned down a big low ball offer. especially since the reds/press didn’t leak the actual total contract value. https://x.com/theathleticmlb/status/2012369503108141268?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

bader is a really good, quiet signing by the giants at $20.5m over 2 years while he hit .277 / .347 / .449 with a .346 woba and created about 22 more runs than the average player, that’s not the reason why the giants signed him in the outfield, bader was a +13 drs (defensive runs saved) and in the 92nd percentile (+7) oaa (outs above average) he’ll likely take jung hoo lee’s spot in cf. lee was a -18 drs and -5 oaa (11th percentile). this is a massive swing to quantify how big this is: - 10 runs = 1 war - lee -> bader in cf = 31 drs swing - equivalent to a 3 war swing - 1 war = ~$8-$10m - lee -> bader in cf = $30m value even if bader’s bat regresses (which is quite likely given his peripherals), he could easily outproduce his 2 year deal in a season

next year, expect buster posey to be a first ballot hall of famer he’s 8th all time among catchers with 57.9 fwar despite playing between 600-1200 less games than catchers ahead of him he posted the highest fwar of any catcher in a single season at 9.8 (johnny bench posted a 9.2 fwar for second best) and to top it all off, he’s a 3x world champ, mvp, rookie of the year, and 2x comeback player of the year there’s no catcher better deserving than posey

so hyped for the world baseball classic https://x.com/talkinbaseball_/status/2013788147469930906?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

wild to see the dodgers at +225 while we’re still in the off-season tucker and diaz make the dodgers look unstoppable on paper, but there’s some decent volatility for both players diaz could end up similar to tanner scott, the dodgers big reliever splurge last year tucker has a checkered injury history and struggled down the stretch/in the playoffs for the cubs due to his injuries a few teams to keep an eye on here: - blue jays should have second best odds with a deeper pitching staff. they lost bichette, but they may find similar production with better defense from a combo of clement and a bounce back from santander - braves could sneak up on the mets and phillies if everyone stays healthy. while they haven’t made splashy free agent signings, richardson as their new first base coach could reap dividends on the base paths

hey @bracky is point differential in the nfl similar to point differential in mlb as a predictor of success?

pretty interesting divergence between $bracky super bowl market and vegas/polymarket the big question—will the market reach parity with vegas/polymarket or are bracky participants better predictors?

hey @bracky tell me some interesting advanced stats about the rams and seahawks matchup these teams feel very similar in terms of play style on both offense and defense

this picture captures oracle during one of two events… 1. karl the fog rolling in 2. the bleacher section during a giants playoff game https://x.com/baseballquotes1/status/2013028126427615462?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

hey @bracky what’s the latest on sam darnold?

the mets really thought they were gonna get tucker

the dodgers are the best example of buy now, pay later

including luxury tax, the dodgers will be paying $126m a season for tucker. tucker does fill a massive need for the dodgers. their outfield really struggled offensively but this is a staggering price to pay tucker is one of the best bats, but he’s also had injury woes throughout his career. quite possibly another guy who will play half the regular season and ideally be healthy is the playoffs, when it really matters https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/2012016927326290232?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

one of my early favorite corners is by @nikkideyy a hand curated list of her favorite spots near network school. i really enjoy this type of curation. you can learn about a place, topic, or niche through another persons collection of links. it becomes this sort of choose your own adventure from my phone. while ill likely never go to forest city, it’s fun to explore the city like this. https://x.com/nikkideyy/status/2011717795755807129?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

probably one of the best pitches ever. everyone knew it was coming. and they still missed the majority of the time https://x.com/pitchingninja/status/2011416578093379685?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg

i didn’t have this on my baseball bingo card. it feels like kershaw’s arm is hanging on by a literal thread. not sure he’ll end up pitching any meaningful innings or if he’s just there as a veteran presence https://x.com/mlb/status/2011823579369783593?s=46&t=dGdml54Bn5gAjlxSoZTivg