While the bet volume growth has been slowing down in August compared to the July's frenzy, Polymarket yesterday saw its ATH in unique daily active users:
Why are % on Polymarket so different from those in traditional polls?
1. Users bet on an outcome if they think it will happen, regardless of their personal preferences. They are driven by profit and strategic calculations, which not necessarily reflect their true preferences.
2. They may use betting as a hedge against their true preference not winning.
These two behaviors magnify the polarization and volatility that can be seen on Polymarket (aka the delta between Polymarket prediction and traditional polls when asking about the US presidential election outcome).
The correlation coefficients between the airdrop claims of the 5 seasons. Looks like the highest is between Season 3 and Season 4. These coefficients can perhaps be considered as a proxy for the effectiveness of the incentives of each Season.
Full dashboard at: https://dune.com/filarm/dollardegen-airdrops-overview
Happy to share my latest research piece on decentralized social networks, just published on the @dune.eth blog!
In this article, I analyze the development of Farcaster and Lens Protocol, comparing their unique approaches to DeSo.
https://dune.com/blog/farcaster-and-lens
Just posted a short piece on L1 cost efficiency of Optimism and Arbitrum. From this first analysis looks like Optimism's costs tend to decrease as the number of transactions and volume of posted data increases, while the opposite for Arbitrum.
https://mirror.xyz/filarm.eth/aZwXFN-tfuZKrMjzT9rXchlY15HGuYJGGj_5FPtPZ88
Recommend this collection of writings on P2P to better understand the web3 (r)evolution that supercharges the original vision and architecture of the Internet, after a deviation with web2. Thesis, antithetis, synthesis.
https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/peer-to-peer/059600110X/
