In addition, here's a recap of US macro data for the past two weeks.
The Fed held interest rates at 3.75%. Then, there was the surprise monthly PPI data, which jumped 0.5% and Core PPI 0.7%, indicating rising costs/inflation at the producer level. PPI data is an early indication of rising inflation, which is usually passed on to consumers.
And even more surprising, the ADP Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data plummeted to 22,000, indicating a significant decline in private sector employment, while weekly jobless claims remained at an average of around 200,000 (the latest reading was 231,000). This was also in line with the plummeting JOLTS job openings data, with the latest reading of 6.54 million lower than both the previous and forecast data, indicating continued decline in job openings.
The threat of persistently high inflation, coupled with a weakening labor force, puts the US at risk of entering stagflation. This could potentially lead to an outflow of foreign investors.
