Macro research and market insights for crypto natives. Fundamental Investor, the street veteran, 5yrs trading&research in crypto. CFA.
W18:Market Insights —Inflation, Recession and Crypto Market
Inflation dominated trading in Jan.- Feb. 2023From the beginning of 2023, the focus of the capital market in the first two months was mainly on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which depends on inflation data (CPI). Consequently, the market mainly traded inflation. Since Dec. 2022, CPI data shows that the peak has passed, and the market generally expects inflation to fall back continually. The Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes or cut interest rates this year. With t...
W18:Market Insights —Inflation, Recession and Crypto Market
Inflation dominated trading in Jan.- Feb. 2023From the beginning of 2023, the focus of the capital market in the first two months was mainly on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which depends on inflation data (CPI). Consequently, the market mainly traded inflation. Since Dec. 2022, CPI data shows that the peak has passed, and the market generally expects inflation to fall back continually. The Federal Reserve may slow down interest rate hikes or cut interest rates this year. With t...
W18:市场观察—通胀、衰退与加密货币
23年1-2月份交易通胀为主23年开年以来，1-2月份资本市场的关注点主要集中在美联储的货币政策，而美联储的货币政策主要取决于通胀数据，因此表现为市场交易通胀为主。自22年12月以来，CPI数据显示高点已经过去，市场普遍预期通胀回落后，美联储或将减缓加息或在今年内降息。在流动性预期改善的前提下，Nasdaq板块高科技股走强。在这段时间里，以比特币为首的加密市场更多表现出风险资产的属性，和高科技股相关性更强。Bitcoin trends with Nasdaq Index23年3-4月份交易衰退为主市场风格的转变始于3月9日银行危机，美国中小银行的流动性危机，打乱了美联储缩表进程，也带来了市场对于美元信用的质疑，导致黄金在这段时间表现出更强的避险属性，这样的避险情绪也蔓延至数字黄金比特币。进入4月份，通胀持续回落，使得市场更多担忧在通胀可控的情况下，将会不可避免地出现经济衰退，反映在大盘股的盈利不达预期，资金普遍倾向流入避险资产中。这段时间，黄金站上2k点整数位一度接近历史最高点，在3月13日达到年内最高$2,048；比特币表现出更强的避险属性，与黄金相关性更高，在3月14日达到年...
W18:市场观察—通胀、衰退与加密货币
23年1-2月份交易通胀为主23年开年以来，1-2月份资本市场的关注点主要集中在美联储的货币政策，而美联储的货币政策主要取决于通胀数据，因此表现为市场交易通胀为主。自22年12月以来，CPI数据显示高点已经过去，市场普遍预期通胀回落后，美联储或将减缓加息或在今年内降息。在流动性预期改善的前提下，Nasdaq板块高科技股走强。在这段时间里，以比特币为首的加密市场更多表现出风险资产的属性，和高科技股相关性更强。Bitcoin trends with Nasdaq Index23年3-4月份交易衰退为主市场风格的转变始于3月9日银行危机，美国中小银行的流动性危机，打乱了美联储缩表进程，也带来了市场对于美元信用的质疑，导致黄金在这段时间表现出更强的避险属性，这样的避险情绪也蔓延至数字黄金比特币。进入4月份，通胀持续回落，使得市场更多担忧在通胀可控的情况下，将会不可避免地出现经济衰退，反映在大盘股的盈利不达预期，资金普遍倾向流入避险资产中。这段时间，黄金站上2k点整数位一度接近历史最高点，在3月13日达到年内最高$2,048；比特币表现出更强的避险属性，与黄金相关性更高，在3月14日达到年...
Trader's analysis of crypto market volatility since the bank crisis and FOMC
Market Panic Caused by Crisis in Small and Medium-Sized BanksSince the Fed began raising interest rates since Mar. 22, from 0% to 4.75-5.00% in just one year, which has been rare as such a rapid pace of rate hikes. Before March, the rate hikes tamed the increase of inflation and negatively influenced risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, before the liquidity crisis of small and medium-sized banks, the Fed had not seen any other negative impacts on the economy. Looking b...
Trader's analysis of crypto market volatility since the bank crisis and FOMC
Market Panic Caused by Crisis in Small and Medium-Sized BanksSince the Fed began raising interest rates since Mar. 22, from 0% to 4.75-5.00% in just one year, which has been rare as such a rapid pace of rate hikes. Before March, the rate hikes tamed the increase of inflation and negatively influenced risk assets such as US stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, before the liquidity crisis of small and medium-sized banks, the Fed had not seen any other negative impacts on the economy. Looking b...
从交易员的视角：复盘银行危机、美联储加息以来加密市场波动分析
中小银行危机带来市场恐慌情绪自美联储22年3月开始加息以来，一年时间内从0利率加息至4.75%-5.00%，这样的快速加息节奏在过往也是很少见的。 在3月之前加息确实遏制了通胀的速度，并给美股、加密货币等风险资产带来较大负面冲击，然而在此次中小银行流动性危机出现之前，美联储尚未看到其他对经济的负面影响。而回看每一次加息，势必会有一定杀伤力（break something），而这个月接连爆出的中小银行的危机归根结底主要还是来自于美联储的持续加息。 对于银行来说，储户的储蓄是银行资产负债表中的负债；银行对外的投资或者发放的贷款是资产。从负债端来看，如果有持续的现金流出压力，或者有更高收益选择（加息下更高收益的国债），势必带来银行存款的流出，也就是银行负债端的偿债兑付。从资产端来看，对外的投资，例如MBS或者国债等投资品类，在整体加息环境下，市值持续下行，带来账上大量浮亏，如果再叠加现金流紧缺，而需要亏损卖出资产端持有的债券，导致资产缩水，势必带来更多储户的集中兑付。总结下来，加息同时影响到了银行的资产端和负债端。所有的银行都是加杠杆运行的，按照巴塞尔协议的资本充足率要求，最高可以有1...
从交易员的视角：复盘银行危机、美联储加息以来加密市场波动分析
中小银行危机带来市场恐慌情绪自美联储22年3月开始加息以来，一年时间内从0利率加息至4.75%-5.00%，这样的快速加息节奏在过往也是很少见的。 在3月之前加息确实遏制了通胀的速度，并给美股、加密货币等风险资产带来较大负面冲击，然而在此次中小银行流动性危机出现之前，美联储尚未看到其他对经济的负面影响。而回看每一次加息，势必会有一定杀伤力（break something），而这个月接连爆出的中小银行的危机归根结底主要还是来自于美联储的持续加息。 对于银行来说，储户的储蓄是银行资产负债表中的负债；银行对外的投资或者发放的贷款是资产。从负债端来看，如果有持续的现金流出压力，或者有更高收益选择（加息下更高收益的国债），势必带来银行存款的流出，也就是银行负债端的偿债兑付。从资产端来看，对外的投资，例如MBS或者国债等投资品类，在整体加息环境下，市值持续下行，带来账上大量浮亏，如果再叠加现金流紧缺，而需要亏损卖出资产端持有的债券，导致资产缩水，势必带来更多储户的集中兑付。总结下来，加息同时影响到了银行的资产端和负债端。所有的银行都是加杠杆运行的，按照巴塞尔协议的资本充足率要求，最高可以有1...
Analysis on the closure of Signature Bank, the last crypto-friendly bank and its impact on market
March 12th EST, the US Treasury Department announced the closure of Signature Bank by the New York State Department of Financial Services, and customers can apply for withdrawal of their deposits on Monday. The biggest similarity between Signature Bank and the two other recently collapsed banks, Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, is that they all involve cryptocurrency business. Signature Bank, as the only bank that has been temporarily spared from a liquidity crisis caused by customer ...
Analysis on the closure of Signature Bank, the last crypto-friendly bank and its impact on market
March 12th EST, the US Treasury Department announced the closure of Signature Bank by the New York State Department of Financial Services, and customers can apply for withdrawal of their deposits on Monday. The biggest similarity between Signature Bank and the two other recently collapsed banks, Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank, is that they all involve cryptocurrency business. Signature Bank, as the only bank that has been temporarily spared from a liquidity crisis caused by customer ...
