Tiger Research has released a report upgrading its Bitcoin price target for the fourth quarter of 2025 to $200,000. This forecast is based on the following key factors:

* Sustained Institutional Buying: Despite market volatility, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $7.8 billion in Q3, as institutional investors viewed price pullbacks as entry opportunities. For instance, MSTR added 388 BTC in a single week.

* Elevated but Not Extreme Valuation: The MVRV-Z Score of 2.31 indicates high valuation levels that have not yet reached extremes. The clearing out of leveraged funds has created room for further gains.

* Favorable Macro Environment: Global M2 money supply hit a record high of $96 trillion. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September and is expected to cut 1-2 more times within the year, providing support for risk assets.

* Shift in Market Structure: The aggressive institutional buying following the October crash indicates a market now dominated by institutions. The pullback is seen as healthy consolidation, helping to clear out speculation and lay the foundation for future rises.

The report concludes that short-term volatility does not affect the long-term bullish trend, and Bitcoin's intrinsic value continues to rise steadily.

Summary

Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon, Jay Jo

Source: Tiger Research

This report by Tiger Research, citing factors such as continued institutional buying amidst volatility, Fed rate cuts, and the October crash confirming an institution-dominated market structure, sets a Q4 2025 Bitcoin price target of $200,000.

Key Takeaways

* Institutional investors continue accumulating amid volatility – Q3 ETF net inflows remained stable; MSTR added 388 BTC in a month, demonstrating firm long-term conviction.

* Overheated but not extreme – An MVRV-Z Score of 2.31 indicates elevated valuation but not yet extreme levels. The flush-out of leveraged funds cleared short-term traders, creating space for the next wave of gains.

* Supportive global liquidity environment persists – Broad money supply (M2) broke $96 trillion, a record high. Fed rate cut expectations are rising, with 1-2 additional cuts anticipated within the year.

Institutional Investors Buy Amid US-China Trade Uncertainty

In Q3 2025, the Bitcoin market slowed from its strong Q2 rally (+28% QoQ) into a volatile, sideways phase (+1% QoQ).

On October 6th, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,210. However, price corrected by 18% to $104,000 following renewed trade pressure from the Trump administration on China, significantly increasing volatility. According to the Volmex Finance Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), while volatility had narrowed from March to September amid steady institutional accumulation, it surged 41% after September, heightening market uncertainty (Chart 1).

This pullback appears temporary, driven by resurgent US-China trade friction and Trump's tough rhetoric. Strategic accumulation by institutions, led by MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR), is actually accelerating. The macro environment is also supportive. Global broad money supply (M2) reached a record $96 trillion, while the Fed cut rates by 25 bps on September 17th to 4.00%-4.25%. The Fed signaled 1-2 more rate cuts this year, and a stable labor market coupled with economic recovery creates a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Institutional inflows remain strong. Q3 Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $7.8 billion. Although lower than Q2's $12.4 billion, consistent net inflows throughout Q3 confirm steady institutional buying. This momentum continued into Q4 – with the first week of October alone recording $3.2 billion, setting a new weekly inflow record for 2025. This suggests institutions view price dips as strategic entry opportunities. MicroStrategy continued buying during the market correction, purchasing 220 BTC on October 13th and 168 BTC on October 20th, totaling 388 BTC in one week. This demonstrates institutional belief in Bitcoin's long-term value, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

On-Chain Signals Show Overheating, Fundamentals Unchanged

On-chain analysis reveals some signs of overheating, though valuation isn't yet a major concern. The MVRV-Z metric is currently in the overheated zone at 2.31 but has stabilized relative to the extreme valuation bands approached in July-August (Chart 2).

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio also indicates an overheated zone but has moderated from the high unrealized profit conditions of Q2 (Chart 3). The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), reflecting realized profit/loss, is very close to the break-even level of 1.03, suggesting no immediate concern (Chart 4).

Bitcoin's transaction count and active user addresses remained similar to the previous quarter, indicating a temporary slowdown in network growth momentum (Chart 5). Meanwhile, the total transaction volume shows an upward trend. Fewer transactions but higher volume implies larger amounts moved in fewer transactions, suggesting increased large-scale capital flows.

However, increased volume shouldn't be interpreted purely positively. Recent increased inflows to centralized exchanges typically indicate holders preparing to sell (Chart 6). Without improvement in fundamental metrics like transaction count and active users, rising volume suggests short-term capital movement and selling pressure in a high-volatility environment rather than a expansion of genuine demand.

October 11th Crash Confirms Shift to Institutional Dominance

The crash on centralized exchanges on October 11th (a 14% drop) confirmed that the Bitcoin market has transitioned from retail-led to institution-led.

The key point is the different market reaction. In a similar environment in late 2021, a retail-dominated market saw panic and subsequent collapse. This time, the correction was limited. Following the massive liquidations, institutional investors continued buying, showing their determination to defend the downside. Furthermore, institutions seem to view this as healthy consolidation, helping to eliminate excessive speculative demand.

In the short term, cascading liquidations lower the average purchase price for retail investors and increase psychological pressure, potentially exacerbating volatility due to dampened sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue entering during sideways consolidation, this correction could lay the groundwork for the next upswing.

Price Target Raised to $200,000

Using our TVM methodology for Q3 analysis yields a neutral base price of $154,000, up 14% from Q2's $135,000. Applying a -2% fundamental adjustment and a +35% macro adjustment to this base price gives us the $200,000 target price.

The -2% fundamental adjustment reflects the temporary slowdown in network activity and increased CEX deposits, indicating short-term weakness. The macro adjustment remains at +35%. Global liquidity expansion and institutional inflows continue, with the Fed's dovish stance providing a strong catalyst for Q4 gains.

Short-term pullbacks may stem from overheating signs, but this constitutes healthy consolidation, not a change in trend or market perception. The consistently rising base price indicates steady appreciation in Bitcoin's intrinsic value. Despite temporary weakness, the medium-to-long-term upward prospects remain solid.

Tiger Research has released a report upgrading its Bitcoin price target for the fourth quarter of 2025 to $200,000. This forecast is based on the following key factors:

* Sustained Institutional Buying: Despite market volatility, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $7.8 billion in Q3, as institutional investors viewed price pullbacks as entry opportunities. For instance, MSTR added 388 BTC in a single week.

* Elevated but Not Extreme Valuation: The MVRV-Z Score of 2.31 indicates high valuation levels that have not yet reached extremes. The clearing out of leveraged funds has created room for further gains.

* Favorable Macro Environment: Global M2 money supply hit a record high of $96 trillion. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in September and is expected to cut 1-2 more times within the year, providing support for risk assets.

* Shift in Market Structure: The aggressive institutional buying following the October crash indicates a market now dominated by institutions. The pullback is seen as healthy consolidation, helping to clear out speculation and lay the foundation for future rises.

The report concludes that short-term volatility does not affect the long-term bullish trend, and Bitcoin's intrinsic value continues to rise steadily.

Summary

Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon, Jay Jo

Source: Tiger Research

This report by Tiger Research, citing factors such as continued institutional buying amidst volatility, Fed rate cuts, and the October crash confirming an institution-dominated market structure, sets a Q4 2025 Bitcoin price target of $200,000.

Key Takeaways

* Institutional investors continue accumulating amid volatility – Q3 ETF net inflows remained stable; MSTR added 388 BTC in a month, demonstrating firm long-term conviction.

* Overheated but not extreme – An MVRV-Z Score of 2.31 indicates elevated valuation but not yet extreme levels. The flush-out of leveraged funds cleared short-term traders, creating space for the next wave of gains.

* Supportive global liquidity environment persists – Broad money supply (M2) broke $96 trillion, a record high. Fed rate cut expectations are rising, with 1-2 additional cuts anticipated within the year.

Institutional Investors Buy Amid US-China Trade Uncertainty

In Q3 2025, the Bitcoin market slowed from its strong Q2 rally (+28% QoQ) into a volatile, sideways phase (+1% QoQ).

On October 6th, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,210. However, price corrected by 18% to $104,000 following renewed trade pressure from the Trump administration on China, significantly increasing volatility. According to the Volmex Finance Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), while volatility had narrowed from March to September amid steady institutional accumulation, it surged 41% after September, heightening market uncertainty (Chart 1).

This pullback appears temporary, driven by resurgent US-China trade friction and Trump's tough rhetoric. Strategic accumulation by institutions, led by MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR), is actually accelerating. The macro environment is also supportive. Global broad money supply (M2) reached a record $96 trillion, while the Fed cut rates by 25 bps on September 17th to 4.00%-4.25%. The Fed signaled 1-2 more rate cuts this year, and a stable labor market coupled with economic recovery creates a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Institutional inflows remain strong. Q3 Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $7.8 billion. Although lower than Q2's $12.4 billion, consistent net inflows throughout Q3 confirm steady institutional buying. This momentum continued into Q4 – with the first week of October alone recording $3.2 billion, setting a new weekly inflow record for 2025. This suggests institutions view price dips as strategic entry opportunities. MicroStrategy continued buying during the market correction, purchasing 220 BTC on October 13th and 168 BTC on October 20th, totaling 388 BTC in one week. This demonstrates institutional belief in Bitcoin's long-term value, regardless of short-term fluctuations.

On-Chain Signals Show Overheating, Fundamentals Unchanged

On-chain analysis reveals some signs of overheating, though valuation isn't yet a major concern. The MVRV-Z metric is currently in the overheated zone at 2.31 but has stabilized relative to the extreme valuation bands approached in July-August (Chart 2).

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio also indicates an overheated zone but has moderated from the high unrealized profit conditions of Q2 (Chart 3). The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), reflecting realized profit/loss, is very close to the break-even level of 1.03, suggesting no immediate concern (Chart 4).

Bitcoin's transaction count and active user addresses remained similar to the previous quarter, indicating a temporary slowdown in network growth momentum (Chart 5). Meanwhile, the total transaction volume shows an upward trend. Fewer transactions but higher volume implies larger amounts moved in fewer transactions, suggesting increased large-scale capital flows.

However, increased volume shouldn't be interpreted purely positively. Recent increased inflows to centralized exchanges typically indicate holders preparing to sell (Chart 6). Without improvement in fundamental metrics like transaction count and active users, rising volume suggests short-term capital movement and selling pressure in a high-volatility environment rather than a expansion of genuine demand.

October 11th Crash Confirms Shift to Institutional Dominance

The crash on centralized exchanges on October 11th (a 14% drop) confirmed that the Bitcoin market has transitioned from retail-led to institution-led.

The key point is the different market reaction. In a similar environment in late 2021, a retail-dominated market saw panic and subsequent collapse. This time, the correction was limited. Following the massive liquidations, institutional investors continued buying, showing their determination to defend the downside. Furthermore, institutions seem to view this as healthy consolidation, helping to eliminate excessive speculative demand.

In the short term, cascading liquidations lower the average purchase price for retail investors and increase psychological pressure, potentially exacerbating volatility due to dampened sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue entering during sideways consolidation, this correction could lay the groundwork for the next upswing.

Price Target Raised to $200,000

Using our TVM methodology for Q3 analysis yields a neutral base price of $154,000, up 14% from Q2's $135,000. Applying a -2% fundamental adjustment and a +35% macro adjustment to this base price gives us the $200,000 target price.

The -2% fundamental adjustment reflects the temporary slowdown in network activity and increased CEX deposits, indicating short-term weakness. The macro adjustment remains at +35%. Global liquidity expansion and institutional inflows continue, with the Fed's dovish stance providing a strong catalyst for Q4 gains.

Short-term pullbacks may stem from overheating signs, but this constitutes healthy consolidation, not a change in trend or market perception. The consistently rising base price indicates steady appreciation in Bitcoin's intrinsic value. Despite temporary weakness, the medium-to-long-term upward prospects remain solid.