I. Insights from Wilderness Survival

1. "Luring" and Trust Traps in the Wilderness

In the classic online game RuneScape, there is an area known as the "Wilderness," famous for its high risks and high rewards. One classic scam in this area, "luring," exploits players' trust and greed. Scammers disguise themselves as friendly allies, using false promises to lure targets into dangerous zones. Eventually, they reveal their true intentions, launch an ambush, and leave the unsuspecting players with nothing.

This strategy is not only a phenomenon in the game but also a microcosm of the crypto market. Many investors, tempted by the allure of "guaranteed profits," naively trust false narratives or project promotions and fall into scams while chasing high returns. For example, in early 2024, several "innovative projects" attracted retail investors with promises of high returns but quickly disappeared with the funds, leaving investors with nothing.

2. The Trust Crisis in the Crypto Market

The era of "everyone can make money" in the crypto market has long passed. In today's market, where liquidity is diluted and narratives rotate rapidly, "luring" scams are no longer rare. Retail investors need to reflect on whether their investment logic is overly dependent on recommendations from social media "KOLs" or seemingly safe market signals. Are there hidden risks behind these "promises"?

II. From Boom to Bust – The "Hotspot" Rotation Trap in the Crypto Market

1. Diluted Liquidity: The Scattering of Market Attention

In the crypto market, the explosion of new projects outpaces the inflow of funds. Data shows that by the end of 2024, there were already over 20,000 types of crypto tokens circulating in the global market. However, many of these projects lack substantial real-world applications and rely solely on hot narratives to attract funds. Investors' attention is scattered, making it difficult for any single narrative to maintain sufficient heat. For example, the "Layer 2 narrative" in 2024 once attracted a large amount of capital, but it quickly faded within a few months, with many projects experiencing price drops of over 80%.

This kind of hotspot rotation has become the norm in the market.

2. The Demise of Short-Term Narratives

The rise and fall of hot projects are accelerating. For example, the "GameFi" projects, which were highly sought after at the beginning of 2024, quickly lost market heat after attracting a large amount of investment in the short term due to the lack of long-term user growth mechanisms. Retail investors often chase prices at their highest points, only to get stuck and become the ultimate bagholders.

The case of $XYZ token: In early 2024, the project attracted a large amount of capital with the slogan of a "new financial revolution." However, three months later, the market discovered that there was no technological progress in the project, and its price plummeted by 90% from its peak.

3. How to Avoid the "Hotspot Trap"

• In-depth Research: Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the project's technology, team, and capital flow.

• Avoid Chasing High Prices: When market discussions are at their peak, it is often a signal to exit rather than an entry point.

• Diversify Investments: Do not bet all your funds on a single narrative. Allocate assets reasonably.

III. The Illusion of the Meme Craze and Altcoin Season

1. The Nature of Meme Culture: Speculation and Viral Spread

Meme tokens (such as DOGEandPEPE) attract attention through viral spread on social media. However, these tokens lack real value support, and their price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and speculators. For example, in mid-2024, the price of $PEPE surged by 200% within two weeks but quickly halved due to insufficient liquidity.

2. The Disappointment of Altcoin Season

Many retail investors, with the mentality that "altcoins will soar," miss out on the opportunity to profit from Bitcoin's rise and instead fall into the speculative trap of low-market-cap tokens. Data shows that in 2024, Bitcoin's price increased by over 70%, while the average decline of most altcoins was close to 50%.

3. The Entry of Market Dominators: Why Retail Investors Struggle to Profit

The current Meme market is dominated by professional traders who use algorithms and insider information to seize the first-mover advantage. For example, some Meme tokens are pre-positioned by institutional investors before their public listing, leaving retail investors to chase high prices and ultimately become the victims.

4. How to Protect Your Principal in Speculation?

• Focus on Value Assets: Avoid investing too much capital in highly speculative tokens.

• Understand Market Dynamics: Pay attention to the emotional cycles behind Meme culture and avoid blindly chasing hotspots.

• Learn Professional Trading Strategies: Such as setting stop-loss points and diversifying risks to prevent a single failure from causing significant losses.

IV. Survival Strategies in the PvP Arena

1. Information Asymmetry: The Layout of Big Players and the Disadvantages of Retail Investors

The crypto market is essentially a "Player vs. Player (PvP)" arena, where information asymmetry puts ordinary retail investors at a disadvantage. Institutional investors and insiders often have access to pre-released news or insider data, allowing them to position themselves before market trends occur. For example, before some new tokens are listed on major exchanges, early investors have already bought in at extremely low prices, while retail investors can only chase the rising prices and end up being stuck at high levels.

2. The Trap Behind the "Listing Effect"

After a new token is listed on a major exchange, its price usually surges significantly in a short period, known as the "listing effect." However, this increase is often the result of artificial manipulation. The behind-the-scenes manipulators profit by taking advantage of retail investors' bullish sentiment. For example, in 2024, a project surged by 200% within 24 hours after its listing but then plummeted by 80% due to heavy selling pressure, causing significant losses to retail investors who chased the high prices.

3. The Airdrop Game of Hyperliquid

In 2024, Hyperliquid attracted retail participation through a large-scale airdrop. However, platform data shows that over 70% of short-term traders lost money due to frequent chasing of highly volatile tokens. Airdrops may seem like "cost-free gains," but in reality, they exacerbate market speculation and risks.

4. Strategies to Gain a Foothold in the Arena:

• Develop Information Analysis Skills: Obtain market information through legitimate channels and avoid blindly trusting "insider news" on social media.

• Set Profit and Loss Limits: Regardless of the investment plan, set profit and loss limits within your psychological expectations in advance.

• Learn from Big Players' Logic: Imitate the robust layout strategies of institutional investors rather than following the herd.

• Improve Trading Discipline: Avoid being misled by short-term hotspots and stick to long-term investment goals.

V. Future Possibilities of the Market and Strategies to Cope

1. The Institutionalization Hope of Bitcoin

Despite the overall liquidity shortage in the market, the institutionalization of Bitcoin is still steadily advancing. According to the latest data, in January 2025, Bitcoin's market value accounted for 48% of the entire crypto market. This is thanks to the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity. The trend of institutionalization brings more stability to the market and may also attract new capital inflows.

2. Short-Term Operations Rule

In the current "PvP market" environment, short-term operations are safer than long-term holding. Especially for retail investors, choosing to quickly enter and exit hot tokens and taking profits in time is more effective in reducing risks than holding blindly. For example, some Meme tokens in 2024 achieved a 10-fold increase in a short period, but long-term holders suffered significant losses due to the fading of market sentiment.

3. Winner's Mindset in a Zero-Sum Game

The crypto market is essentially a zero-sum game, where every profitable transaction has a corresponding loser. Therefore, investors need to abandon the illusion of "win-win" and recognize the intensity of market competition. Winners often have the following characteristics:

• Calm and Rational: Not easily swayed by market sentiment.

• Clear Strategy: Having clear goals and risk management plans.

• Continuous Learning: Updating knowledge in a timely manner to adapt to market changes.

4. Three-Step Investment Strategy

• Monitor Macro Signals: Pay attention to policy dynamics, economic environment, and changes in market sentiment.

• Lock in Quality Assets: Choose tokens with real application value or long-term potential.

• Optimize Capital Allocation: Diversify investments reasonably to reduce the risks associated with the failure of a single project.

I. Insights from Wilderness Survival

1. "Luring" and Trust Traps in the Wilderness

In the classic online game RuneScape, there is an area known as the "Wilderness," famous for its high risks and high rewards. One classic scam in this area, "luring," exploits players' trust and greed. Scammers disguise themselves as friendly allies, using false promises to lure targets into dangerous zones. Eventually, they reveal their true intentions, launch an ambush, and leave the unsuspecting players with nothing.

This strategy is not only a phenomenon in the game but also a microcosm of the crypto market. Many investors, tempted by the allure of "guaranteed profits," naively trust false narratives or project promotions and fall into scams while chasing high returns. For example, in early 2024, several "innovative projects" attracted retail investors with promises of high returns but quickly disappeared with the funds, leaving investors with nothing.

2. The Trust Crisis in the Crypto Market

The era of "everyone can make money" in the crypto market has long passed. In today's market, where liquidity is diluted and narratives rotate rapidly, "luring" scams are no longer rare. Retail investors need to reflect on whether their investment logic is overly dependent on recommendations from social media "KOLs" or seemingly safe market signals. Are there hidden risks behind these "promises"?

II. From Boom to Bust – The "Hotspot" Rotation Trap in the Crypto Market

1. Diluted Liquidity: The Scattering of Market Attention

In the crypto market, the explosion of new projects outpaces the inflow of funds. Data shows that by the end of 2024, there were already over 20,000 types of crypto tokens circulating in the global market. However, many of these projects lack substantial real-world applications and rely solely on hot narratives to attract funds. Investors' attention is scattered, making it difficult for any single narrative to maintain sufficient heat. For example, the "Layer 2 narrative" in 2024 once attracted a large amount of capital, but it quickly faded within a few months, with many projects experiencing price drops of over 80%.

This kind of hotspot rotation has become the norm in the market.

2. The Demise of Short-Term Narratives

The rise and fall of hot projects are accelerating. For example, the "GameFi" projects, which were highly sought after at the beginning of 2024, quickly lost market heat after attracting a large amount of investment in the short term due to the lack of long-term user growth mechanisms. Retail investors often chase prices at their highest points, only to get stuck and become the ultimate bagholders.

The case of $XYZ token: In early 2024, the project attracted a large amount of capital with the slogan of a "new financial revolution." However, three months later, the market discovered that there was no technological progress in the project, and its price plummeted by 90% from its peak.

3. How to Avoid the "Hotspot Trap"

• In-depth Research: Conduct a comprehensive assessment of the project's technology, team, and capital flow.

• Avoid Chasing High Prices: When market discussions are at their peak, it is often a signal to exit rather than an entry point.

• Diversify Investments: Do not bet all your funds on a single narrative. Allocate assets reasonably.

III. The Illusion of the Meme Craze and Altcoin Season

1. The Nature of Meme Culture: Speculation and Viral Spread

Meme tokens (such as DOGEandPEPE) attract attention through viral spread on social media. However, these tokens lack real value support, and their price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and speculators. For example, in mid-2024, the price of $PEPE surged by 200% within two weeks but quickly halved due to insufficient liquidity.

2. The Disappointment of Altcoin Season

Many retail investors, with the mentality that "altcoins will soar," miss out on the opportunity to profit from Bitcoin's rise and instead fall into the speculative trap of low-market-cap tokens. Data shows that in 2024, Bitcoin's price increased by over 70%, while the average decline of most altcoins was close to 50%.

3. The Entry of Market Dominators: Why Retail Investors Struggle to Profit

The current Meme market is dominated by professional traders who use algorithms and insider information to seize the first-mover advantage. For example, some Meme tokens are pre-positioned by institutional investors before their public listing, leaving retail investors to chase high prices and ultimately become the victims.

4. How to Protect Your Principal in Speculation?

• Focus on Value Assets: Avoid investing too much capital in highly speculative tokens.

• Understand Market Dynamics: Pay attention to the emotional cycles behind Meme culture and avoid blindly chasing hotspots.

• Learn Professional Trading Strategies: Such as setting stop-loss points and diversifying risks to prevent a single failure from causing significant losses.

IV. Survival Strategies in the PvP Arena

1. Information Asymmetry: The Layout of Big Players and the Disadvantages of Retail Investors

The crypto market is essentially a "Player vs. Player (PvP)" arena, where information asymmetry puts ordinary retail investors at a disadvantage. Institutional investors and insiders often have access to pre-released news or insider data, allowing them to position themselves before market trends occur. For example, before some new tokens are listed on major exchanges, early investors have already bought in at extremely low prices, while retail investors can only chase the rising prices and end up being stuck at high levels.

2. The Trap Behind the "Listing Effect"

After a new token is listed on a major exchange, its price usually surges significantly in a short period, known as the "listing effect." However, this increase is often the result of artificial manipulation. The behind-the-scenes manipulators profit by taking advantage of retail investors' bullish sentiment. For example, in 2024, a project surged by 200% within 24 hours after its listing but then plummeted by 80% due to heavy selling pressure, causing significant losses to retail investors who chased the high prices.

3. The Airdrop Game of Hyperliquid

In 2024, Hyperliquid attracted retail participation through a large-scale airdrop. However, platform data shows that over 70% of short-term traders lost money due to frequent chasing of highly volatile tokens. Airdrops may seem like "cost-free gains," but in reality, they exacerbate market speculation and risks.

4. Strategies to Gain a Foothold in the Arena:

• Develop Information Analysis Skills: Obtain market information through legitimate channels and avoid blindly trusting "insider news" on social media.

• Set Profit and Loss Limits: Regardless of the investment plan, set profit and loss limits within your psychological expectations in advance.

• Learn from Big Players' Logic: Imitate the robust layout strategies of institutional investors rather than following the herd.

• Improve Trading Discipline: Avoid being misled by short-term hotspots and stick to long-term investment goals.

V. Future Possibilities of the Market and Strategies to Cope

1. The Institutionalization Hope of Bitcoin

Despite the overall liquidity shortage in the market, the institutionalization of Bitcoin is still steadily advancing. According to the latest data, in January 2025, Bitcoin's market value accounted for 48% of the entire crypto market. This is thanks to the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity. The trend of institutionalization brings more stability to the market and may also attract new capital inflows.

2. Short-Term Operations Rule

In the current "PvP market" environment, short-term operations are safer than long-term holding. Especially for retail investors, choosing to quickly enter and exit hot tokens and taking profits in time is more effective in reducing risks than holding blindly. For example, some Meme tokens in 2024 achieved a 10-fold increase in a short period, but long-term holders suffered significant losses due to the fading of market sentiment.

3. Winner's Mindset in a Zero-Sum Game

The crypto market is essentially a zero-sum game, where every profitable transaction has a corresponding loser. Therefore, investors need to abandon the illusion of "win-win" and recognize the intensity of market competition. Winners often have the following characteristics:

• Calm and Rational: Not easily swayed by market sentiment.

• Clear Strategy: Having clear goals and risk management plans.

• Continuous Learning: Updating knowledge in a timely manner to adapt to market changes.

4. Three-Step Investment Strategy

• Monitor Macro Signals: Pay attention to policy dynamics, economic environment, and changes in market sentiment.

• Lock in Quality Assets: Choose tokens with real application value or long-term potential.

• Optimize Capital Allocation: Diversify investments reasonably to reduce the risks associated with the failure of a single project.