On October 10-11, the crypto market experienced its largest liquidation event in history, totaling a staggering $19.3 billion. While initial blame was placed on panic triggered by a tariff announcement, a deeper analysis reveals two key points of doubt, suggesting this might have been a coordinated attack targeting the Binance exchange.

Doubt One: Abnormal Crash of Specific Assets on Binance

* USDe plunged to $0.6567 on Binance, while its price remained above $0.90 on other exchanges.

* wBETH crashed to $430 on Binance, an 88.7% drop from its normal price.

* BNSOL plummeted to $34.9 on Binance, while showing almost no volatility on other exchanges.

This pattern of a crash confined to a single exchange does not align with the characteristics of general market panic.

Doubt Two: Suspicious Timing Coincidence

* Binance had announced on October 6th an update to the pricing mechanisms for WBETH and BNSOL, originally scheduled to take effect on October 14th (later changed to the 11th).

* The crash occurred precisely in the "vulnerability window" after the announcement but before the new mechanism took effect.

Attack Hypothesis Timeline

* 5:00: Market begins normal decline due to tariff news.

* 5:20: Altcoin liquidations sharply accelerate, potentially targeting market makers.

* 5:43: The three target assets begin crashing simultaneously on Binance.

* 6:30: Market structure completely collapses, with total liquidations exceeding tens of billions of dollars.

Potential Profits for Attackers

Combined profits from short selling, accumulation at low prices, and cross-exchange arbitrage could potentially reach $800 million to $1.2 billion.

Other Possibilities

Other explanations include a cascade liquidation effect, risk concentration, system stress, or panic psychology. However, these struggle to explain why the crash was so precisely targeted at specific assets and a specific exchange.

If this was indeed a coordinated attack, it implies that the market structure itself can be weaponized, and exchange transparency can paradoxically become a potential vulnerability. The event demonstrates shortcomings in current risk models and indicates a need for a fundamental redesign of the market.

Summary

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Original Title: Was the Friday Crash a Coordinated Attack? The Evidence Points to Something Disturbing

Original Author: @yq_acc

Original Compilation: Jiahuan, ChainCatcher

The black swan event on October 10-11 led to the largest liquidation in crypto history, amounting to $19.3 billion. Although initial reports attributed the cause to market panic from a tariff announcement, a deep dive into the data reveals some questionable aspects. Was this a coordinated attack targeting Binance and USDe holders? Let's examine the evidence.

Doubt One: Why Specifically These Three Assets?

The most perplexing aspect of this crash centers on three specific assets – their prices catastrophically collapsed, but only on Binance:

* USDe: Plunged to $0.6567 on Binance, while remaining above $0.90 on other exchanges.

* wBETH: Crashed to $430 on Binance, 88.7% lower than ETH's normal price.

* BNSOL: Dropped sharply to $34.9 on Binance, while other exchanges saw almost no fluctuation.

This "exchange-specific" crash phenomenon immediately raised alarms. Market panic does not typically target a single platform so precisely.

Doubt Two: A Timing So Coincidental It's Suspicious

The plot thickens. As early as October 6th, Binance announced updates to the pricing mechanisms for WBETH and BNSOL, originally expected to take effect on October 14th (now changed to October 11th). This crash occurred precisely on October 10-11 – squarely within this "vulnerability window" after the announcement but before the new mechanism took effect.

Among thousands of trading pairs, why did only these three assets, which had pre-announced updates, experience extreme de-pegging? The probability of this being pure coincidence is extremely low.

Attack Hypothesis Timeline: A Meticulously Planned Sequence

Assuming this was indeed an organized attack, the timeline reveals a meticulous plan:

* 05:00 (UTC+8): Market begins falling due to tariff news, a normal reaction.

* 05:20: Altcoin liquidations suddenly and sharply accelerate. This step might have aimed to specifically target market maker positions.

* 05:43: USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL begin crashing simultaneously on Binance.

* 06:30: Market structure completely collapses.

Specific Crash Details:

* 05:00 (UTC+8): Initial Market Volatility Begins

* Bitcoin starts declining from $119,000

* Trading volume within normal range

* Market makers maintain standard spreads

* 05:20: First Liquidation Cascade

* Altcoin liquidations accelerate sharply

* Trading volume soars: 10x normal activity

* Patterns of market maker withdrawal appear

* 05:43: Critical De-pegging Event

* USDe: $1.00 → $0.6567 (-34.33%)

* WBETH: 3,813 USDT → begins catastrophic decline

* BNSOL: ~200 USDT → accelerated collapse

* 05:50: Maximum Dislocation

* WBETH hits 430.65 USDT (-88.7% from parity)

* BNSOL bottoms at 34.9 USDT (-82.5%)

* Buyer liquidity completely disappears

* 06:30: Complete Market Structure Collapse

* Total liquidations exceed $10 billion

* Market makers fully withdraw

* Binance-specific price anomalies peak

The 23-minute gap between the first liquidation wave and the crash of USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL suggests sequential execution, not a random panic event.

The USDe Factor

USDe itself possessed several weaknesses making it an ideal target:

1. Hidden Leverage: Binance's 12% yield program encouraged users to engage in recursive borrowing, creating leveraged positions up to 10x.

2. Collateral Concentration: Many traders used USDe as margin collateral.

3. Thin Liquidity: Despite being labeled a "stablecoin," USDe's order book depth was surprisingly shallow.

When USDe crashed to $0.6567, it not only caused direct losses – it likely triggered cascading effects throughout the ecosystem.

The Market Maker Perspective

A theory circulating among traders is that the first wave of altcoin liquidations at 05:20 specifically aimed to hit market makers. Once market makers were forced out due to losses, they simultaneously withdrew orders across all trading pairs, causing the market to instantly lose liquidity and become vulnerable.

Evidence includes many altcoins on Binance trading far below their prices on other exchanges at the time, consistent with a pattern of major market maker liquidation.

Following the Money

If this was an organized attack, the perpetrators reaped astounding profits:

* Potential Short Selling Profits: $300M - $400M

* Accumulation at Low Prices: $400M - $600M opportunity

* Cross-Exchange Arbitrage: $100M - $200M

* Total Potential Profit: $800M to $1.2B

This isn't normal trading profit; it's robbery-level returns.

Alternative Explanations

For fairness, other possibilities exist:

1. Cascade Liquidation Effect: One large liquidation naturally triggers a snowball effect.

2. Excessive Risk Concentration: Too many traders employed similar strategies.

3. System Stress: Exchanges experienced system failures under extreme trading volume.

4. Panic Psychology: Fear itself created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, these explanations struggle to account for why the crash was so precisely targeted at specific assets and a specific exchange.

The Suspicious Nature of the Event

Several factors distinguish this event from a typical market crash:

* Venue Specificity: Price crashes were almost entirely limited to Binance.

* Asset Selectivity: Only assets pre-announced to have a vulnerability were severely affected.

* Temporal Precision: Occurred within the exact vulnerability window.

* Sequential Nature: Market makers were cleared out before the primary targets were hit.

* Profit Pattern: Consistent with a pre-deployed strategy.

The Implications If True

If this was indeed a coordinated attack, it represents a new evolution in crypto market manipulation. The attackers weren't hacking systems or stealing keys, but weaponizing the market structure itself.

This would imply:

* Every exchange announcement becomes a potential vulnerability.

* Transparency can paradoxically reduce security.

* Market structure requires a fundamental redesign.

* Current risk models are inadequate.

Disturbing Possibilities

While we cannot definitively prove an organized attack, the evidence constitutes reasonable suspicion. The precision, timing, venue specificity, and profit pattern perfectly fit the profile of a coordinated attack.

Whether through brilliant speculation or deliberate orchestration, someone turned Binance's transparency into a vulnerability and seized nearly a billion dollars in the process.

The crypto industry must now grapple with a disturbing question: In our interconnected, 24/7 markets, has transparency itself become a weapon that cunning actors can wield?

Until we get definitive answers, traders should assume similar vulnerabilities exist across all exchanges. The events of October 10-11 might have many explanations, but one thing is certain: it wasn't random.

On October 10-11, the crypto market experienced its largest liquidation event in history, totaling a staggering $19.3 billion. While initial blame was placed on panic triggered by a tariff announcement, a deeper analysis reveals two key points of doubt, suggesting this might have been a coordinated attack targeting the Binance exchange.

Doubt One: Abnormal Crash of Specific Assets on Binance

* USDe plunged to $0.6567 on Binance, while its price remained above $0.90 on other exchanges.

* wBETH crashed to $430 on Binance, an 88.7% drop from its normal price.

* BNSOL plummeted to $34.9 on Binance, while showing almost no volatility on other exchanges.

This pattern of a crash confined to a single exchange does not align with the characteristics of general market panic.

Doubt Two: Suspicious Timing Coincidence

* Binance had announced on October 6th an update to the pricing mechanisms for WBETH and BNSOL, originally scheduled to take effect on October 14th (later changed to the 11th).

* The crash occurred precisely in the "vulnerability window" after the announcement but before the new mechanism took effect.

Attack Hypothesis Timeline

* 5:00: Market begins normal decline due to tariff news.

* 5:20: Altcoin liquidations sharply accelerate, potentially targeting market makers.

* 5:43: The three target assets begin crashing simultaneously on Binance.

* 6:30: Market structure completely collapses, with total liquidations exceeding tens of billions of dollars.

Potential Profits for Attackers

Combined profits from short selling, accumulation at low prices, and cross-exchange arbitrage could potentially reach $800 million to $1.2 billion.

Other Possibilities

Other explanations include a cascade liquidation effect, risk concentration, system stress, or panic psychology. However, these struggle to explain why the crash was so precisely targeted at specific assets and a specific exchange.

If this was indeed a coordinated attack, it implies that the market structure itself can be weaponized, and exchange transparency can paradoxically become a potential vulnerability. The event demonstrates shortcomings in current risk models and indicates a need for a fundamental redesign of the market.

Summary

---

Original Title: Was the Friday Crash a Coordinated Attack? The Evidence Points to Something Disturbing

Original Author: @yq_acc

Original Compilation: Jiahuan, ChainCatcher

The black swan event on October 10-11 led to the largest liquidation in crypto history, amounting to $19.3 billion. Although initial reports attributed the cause to market panic from a tariff announcement, a deep dive into the data reveals some questionable aspects. Was this a coordinated attack targeting Binance and USDe holders? Let's examine the evidence.

Doubt One: Why Specifically These Three Assets?

The most perplexing aspect of this crash centers on three specific assets – their prices catastrophically collapsed, but only on Binance:

* USDe: Plunged to $0.6567 on Binance, while remaining above $0.90 on other exchanges.

* wBETH: Crashed to $430 on Binance, 88.7% lower than ETH's normal price.

* BNSOL: Dropped sharply to $34.9 on Binance, while other exchanges saw almost no fluctuation.

This "exchange-specific" crash phenomenon immediately raised alarms. Market panic does not typically target a single platform so precisely.

Doubt Two: A Timing So Coincidental It's Suspicious

The plot thickens. As early as October 6th, Binance announced updates to the pricing mechanisms for WBETH and BNSOL, originally expected to take effect on October 14th (now changed to October 11th). This crash occurred precisely on October 10-11 – squarely within this "vulnerability window" after the announcement but before the new mechanism took effect.

Among thousands of trading pairs, why did only these three assets, which had pre-announced updates, experience extreme de-pegging? The probability of this being pure coincidence is extremely low.

Attack Hypothesis Timeline: A Meticulously Planned Sequence

Assuming this was indeed an organized attack, the timeline reveals a meticulous plan:

* 05:00 (UTC+8): Market begins falling due to tariff news, a normal reaction.

* 05:20: Altcoin liquidations suddenly and sharply accelerate. This step might have aimed to specifically target market maker positions.

* 05:43: USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL begin crashing simultaneously on Binance.

* 06:30: Market structure completely collapses.

Specific Crash Details:

* 05:00 (UTC+8): Initial Market Volatility Begins

* Bitcoin starts declining from $119,000

* Trading volume within normal range

* Market makers maintain standard spreads

* 05:20: First Liquidation Cascade

* Altcoin liquidations accelerate sharply

* Trading volume soars: 10x normal activity

* Patterns of market maker withdrawal appear

* 05:43: Critical De-pegging Event

* USDe: $1.00 → $0.6567 (-34.33%)

* WBETH: 3,813 USDT → begins catastrophic decline

* BNSOL: ~200 USDT → accelerated collapse

* 05:50: Maximum Dislocation

* WBETH hits 430.65 USDT (-88.7% from parity)

* BNSOL bottoms at 34.9 USDT (-82.5%)

* Buyer liquidity completely disappears

* 06:30: Complete Market Structure Collapse

* Total liquidations exceed $10 billion

* Market makers fully withdraw

* Binance-specific price anomalies peak

The 23-minute gap between the first liquidation wave and the crash of USDe, WBETH, and BNSOL suggests sequential execution, not a random panic event.

The USDe Factor

USDe itself possessed several weaknesses making it an ideal target:

1. Hidden Leverage: Binance's 12% yield program encouraged users to engage in recursive borrowing, creating leveraged positions up to 10x.

2. Collateral Concentration: Many traders used USDe as margin collateral.

3. Thin Liquidity: Despite being labeled a "stablecoin," USDe's order book depth was surprisingly shallow.

When USDe crashed to $0.6567, it not only caused direct losses – it likely triggered cascading effects throughout the ecosystem.

The Market Maker Perspective

A theory circulating among traders is that the first wave of altcoin liquidations at 05:20 specifically aimed to hit market makers. Once market makers were forced out due to losses, they simultaneously withdrew orders across all trading pairs, causing the market to instantly lose liquidity and become vulnerable.

Evidence includes many altcoins on Binance trading far below their prices on other exchanges at the time, consistent with a pattern of major market maker liquidation.

Following the Money

If this was an organized attack, the perpetrators reaped astounding profits:

* Potential Short Selling Profits: $300M - $400M

* Accumulation at Low Prices: $400M - $600M opportunity

* Cross-Exchange Arbitrage: $100M - $200M

* Total Potential Profit: $800M to $1.2B

This isn't normal trading profit; it's robbery-level returns.

Alternative Explanations

For fairness, other possibilities exist:

1. Cascade Liquidation Effect: One large liquidation naturally triggers a snowball effect.

2. Excessive Risk Concentration: Too many traders employed similar strategies.

3. System Stress: Exchanges experienced system failures under extreme trading volume.

4. Panic Psychology: Fear itself created a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, these explanations struggle to account for why the crash was so precisely targeted at specific assets and a specific exchange.

The Suspicious Nature of the Event

Several factors distinguish this event from a typical market crash:

* Venue Specificity: Price crashes were almost entirely limited to Binance.

* Asset Selectivity: Only assets pre-announced to have a vulnerability were severely affected.

* Temporal Precision: Occurred within the exact vulnerability window.

* Sequential Nature: Market makers were cleared out before the primary targets were hit.

* Profit Pattern: Consistent with a pre-deployed strategy.

The Implications If True

If this was indeed a coordinated attack, it represents a new evolution in crypto market manipulation. The attackers weren't hacking systems or stealing keys, but weaponizing the market structure itself.

This would imply:

* Every exchange announcement becomes a potential vulnerability.

* Transparency can paradoxically reduce security.

* Market structure requires a fundamental redesign.

* Current risk models are inadequate.

Disturbing Possibilities

While we cannot definitively prove an organized attack, the evidence constitutes reasonable suspicion. The precision, timing, venue specificity, and profit pattern perfectly fit the profile of a coordinated attack.

Whether through brilliant speculation or deliberate orchestration, someone turned Binance's transparency into a vulnerability and seized nearly a billion dollars in the process.

The crypto industry must now grapple with a disturbing question: In our interconnected, 24/7 markets, has transparency itself become a weapon that cunning actors can wield?

Until we get definitive answers, traders should assume similar vulnerabilities exist across all exchanges. The events of October 10-11 might have many explanations, but one thing is certain: it wasn't random.