DeepSeek Innovation and Endogenous Dilemmas: Navigating Crypto in the Fog
DeepSeek's success has proven to us that innovation remains the most effective path to break through seemingly insurmountable challenges.
Why AI is DeFi’s Next Milestone?
As DeFi expands in scale and complexity, AI-driven "Agentic Finance" is becoming a key direction to lower the barrier of entry for users. This article systematically analyzes the current development and core challenges of two types of intelligent agents: Co-pilot Agents Platforms like &milo, The Hive, and Meridian assist users with investment decisions, asset rebalancing, and more through natural language processing. However, they still face issues such as execution errors, data latency, and ...
Flying Tulip: AC’s New Exchange – Funded by DeFi T-Bills, Backed by a Perpetual Put
The Elevator Pitch Andre Cronje’s latest laboratory is building a full-stack crypto exchange (spot, perps, options, lending, structured yield) without ever touching VC runway. Instead, the team is raising $1 bn by selling a single token – FT – that doubles as a perpetual American put option struck at the original sale price. Proceeds go into low-risk DeFi strategies (≈ 4 %). The coupons pay salaries, server bills and token buy-backs until trading-fee cash flow takes over. If price < strike, r...
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New Game on the Field: Can Prediction Markets Shake the Deep Water of U.S. Sports Business?
Support Chloe
New Game on the Field: Can Prediction Markets Shake the Deep Water of U.S. Sports Business?
DeepSeek Innovation and Endogenous Dilemmas: Navigating Crypto in the Fog
DeepSeek's success has proven to us that innovation remains the most effective path to break through seemingly insurmountable challenges.
Why AI is DeFi’s Next Milestone?
As DeFi expands in scale and complexity, AI-driven "Agentic Finance" is becoming a key direction to lower the barrier of entry for users. This article systematically analyzes the current development and core challenges of two types of intelligent agents: Co-pilot Agents Platforms like &milo, The Hive, and Meridian assist users with investment decisions, asset rebalancing, and more through natural language processing. However, they still face issues such as execution errors, data latency, and ...
Flying Tulip: AC’s New Exchange – Funded by DeFi T-Bills, Backed by a Perpetual Put
The Elevator Pitch Andre Cronje’s latest laboratory is building a full-stack crypto exchange (spot, perps, options, lending, structured yield) without ever touching VC runway. Instead, the team is raising $1 bn by selling a single token – FT – that doubles as a perpetual American put option struck at the original sale price. Proceeds go into low-risk DeFi strategies (≈ 4 %). The coupons pay salaries, server bills and token buy-backs until trading-fee cash flow takes over. If price < strike, r...
1. Booming Market: Kalshi & Polymarket
October 2025 trading volume on the two largest U.S. prediction-market venues jumped more than 90 % month-over-month, with sports contracts driving the spike. Polymarket is raising a new round that would value the firm at USD 12-15 B, while Kalshi was last priced at roughly USD 2 B. Both platforms now treat sports as their core growth engine.
---
2. First Mover: NHL Signs Official Data Deal
The National Hockey League became the first “Big-Four” league to embrace prediction markets, granting Kalshi and Polymarket multi-year rights to league marks, official data and in-broadcast branding.
League executives argue the partnerships attract tech-savvy fans and give the NHL veto power over exotic prop contracts that could compromise integrity. The quid-pro-quo: platforms must buy official data feeds and run the same monitoring tools used by licensed sports-books.
---
3. The Big Three Balk: NBA, NFL, MLB
The NBA, NFL and Major League Baseball have so far refused to meet with either operator. In separate letters to the CFTC the leagues warned that event contracts “replicate wagers” but lack the consumer-protection, geolocation and integrity programs required of state-licensed books.
The NBA’s recent injury-report betting scandals make it especially sensitive to any market that allows trading on player-availability props. The NFL says it will treat prediction markets as gambling and wants the same risk controls imposed in the 36 states with legal betting.
---
4. Industry Push-Back: AGA Draws a Hard Line
The American Gaming Association calls prediction markets “back-door gambling” and has lobbied every league to shun them. AGA president Bill Miller says bypassing state regulations “undercuts the $70 B legal-sports-betting marketplace” and exposes minors and problem gamblers to weak oversight. The association is now drafting model state legislation that would explicitly class sports-event contracts as wagers.
---
5. Regulatory Minefield: Federal vs. State
Kalshi is already a CFTC-designated contract market, but at least seven states (NY, NJ, MA, OH, NV, MD, NE) have served cease-and-desist orders, arguing the sports products violate state gaming laws. Kalshi has countersued, claiming the Commodity Exchange Act pre-empts state rules. A Third Circuit appeal—backed by 34 state attorneys-general—could set nationwide precedent.
Polymarket paid a $1.4 M CFTC fine in 2022 and shuttered non-compliant markets; it now geofences roughly 20 % of U.S. IP addresses.
---
6. Incumbents Strike Back: DraftKings Builds Its Own
DraftKings is buying prediction-market tech start-up Railbird and will launch “DraftKings Predictions” in Q1-26, using Polymarket as settlement agent. The move is defensive: keep users inside the DK ecosystem even in states without sports-betting licenses. FanDuel is running a parallel pilot; both giants expect hybrid sports-book / prediction-market apps to be the next product cycle.
---
7. Bottom Line: A Fork in the Road
If Kalshi wins its federal pre-emption case and other leagues follow the NHL, prediction markets could become a standard fan-engagement layer—effectively turning every broadcast into a trading floor.
A loss, or an adverse CFTC rule-change, would push operators back into crypto-native, offshore status and leave U.S. sports to the incumbents who spent seven years building state-by-state licenses.
The court docket, not the trading floor, will decide who gets the next possession arrow.
1. Booming Market: Kalshi & Polymarket
October 2025 trading volume on the two largest U.S. prediction-market venues jumped more than 90 % month-over-month, with sports contracts driving the spike. Polymarket is raising a new round that would value the firm at USD 12-15 B, while Kalshi was last priced at roughly USD 2 B. Both platforms now treat sports as their core growth engine.
---
2. First Mover: NHL Signs Official Data Deal
The National Hockey League became the first “Big-Four” league to embrace prediction markets, granting Kalshi and Polymarket multi-year rights to league marks, official data and in-broadcast branding.
League executives argue the partnerships attract tech-savvy fans and give the NHL veto power over exotic prop contracts that could compromise integrity. The quid-pro-quo: platforms must buy official data feeds and run the same monitoring tools used by licensed sports-books.
---
3. The Big Three Balk: NBA, NFL, MLB
The NBA, NFL and Major League Baseball have so far refused to meet with either operator. In separate letters to the CFTC the leagues warned that event contracts “replicate wagers” but lack the consumer-protection, geolocation and integrity programs required of state-licensed books.
The NBA’s recent injury-report betting scandals make it especially sensitive to any market that allows trading on player-availability props. The NFL says it will treat prediction markets as gambling and wants the same risk controls imposed in the 36 states with legal betting.
---
4. Industry Push-Back: AGA Draws a Hard Line
The American Gaming Association calls prediction markets “back-door gambling” and has lobbied every league to shun them. AGA president Bill Miller says bypassing state regulations “undercuts the $70 B legal-sports-betting marketplace” and exposes minors and problem gamblers to weak oversight. The association is now drafting model state legislation that would explicitly class sports-event contracts as wagers.
---
5. Regulatory Minefield: Federal vs. State
Kalshi is already a CFTC-designated contract market, but at least seven states (NY, NJ, MA, OH, NV, MD, NE) have served cease-and-desist orders, arguing the sports products violate state gaming laws. Kalshi has countersued, claiming the Commodity Exchange Act pre-empts state rules. A Third Circuit appeal—backed by 34 state attorneys-general—could set nationwide precedent.
Polymarket paid a $1.4 M CFTC fine in 2022 and shuttered non-compliant markets; it now geofences roughly 20 % of U.S. IP addresses.
---
6. Incumbents Strike Back: DraftKings Builds Its Own
DraftKings is buying prediction-market tech start-up Railbird and will launch “DraftKings Predictions” in Q1-26, using Polymarket as settlement agent. The move is defensive: keep users inside the DK ecosystem even in states without sports-betting licenses. FanDuel is running a parallel pilot; both giants expect hybrid sports-book / prediction-market apps to be the next product cycle.
---
7. Bottom Line: A Fork in the Road
If Kalshi wins its federal pre-emption case and other leagues follow the NHL, prediction markets could become a standard fan-engagement layer—effectively turning every broadcast into a trading floor.
A loss, or an adverse CFTC rule-change, would push operators back into crypto-native, offshore status and leave U.S. sports to the incumbents who spent seven years building state-by-state licenses.
The court docket, not the trading floor, will decide who gets the next possession arrow.
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