The Final Boss or the Final Rug Pull?
Meme coins are still being launched, but the market’s enthusiasm seems to be waning.

While new Memes appear daily, how long has it been since we last saw a truly viral "golden dog" like last year?

The Meme hype may be fading, but that hasn’t stopped Meme launchpads from charging ahead.

On June 4, Blockworks reported that Pump.fun plans to launch its token, aiming to raise $1 billion at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, selling roughly 25% of the supply.

The offering targets both public and private investors, with rumors of an airdrop and a potential token ticker $PUMP, though details remain unclear.

Is Meme Culture Doomed?
Pump.fun has yet to confirm the plan, but for context, Circle—the issuer of stablecoin USDC—sought a $7.2 billion valuation for its IPO.

Market reactions are mixed.

News of the token launch briefly sent ALON (a meme coin named after Pump.fun’s founder @a1lon_9) soaring 102%, proving the gambling mindset is alive and well.

Some applaud Pump.fun’s revenue potential, hoping for dividends or governance perks. Others scoff at the $4B valuation, calling it a blatant cash grab.

Fervor and fatigue collide—opportunity and risk entwined.

If this launchpad, so deeply tied to trading, speculation, and volatility, rolls out its token, will it revive a parched market… or deliver one final rug pull?

The answer may lie in its valuation logic and market pulse.

Is Pump.fun Really Worth $4 Billion?
If Blockworks’ report holds, $PUMP’s FDV would hover around $4B. Does that make sense?

Let’s crunch some numbers.

Public data shows Pump.fun generated $296M in revenue by May 2025. Annualized, that’s roughly $710M ($296M ÷ 5 × 12).

Using traditional metrics:

• Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio: 5.63 ($4B ÷ $710M), implying investors pay $5.63 per $1 of revenue—similar to Uniswap and other DeFi projects.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E): Assuming 50% profit-sharing ($355M), P/E would be ~11.4, below the average for U.S. tech stocks.

But Meme businesses don’t play by traditional rules. Valuation hinges more on FOMO and sentiment than fundamentals.

Circle’s $7.2B IPO valuation rests on USDC’s stable, compliant model. Pump.fun—a Meme launchpad—claiming over half that valuation feels… off.

Worse, Pump.fun’s revenue is wildly volatile:

• Peak: $14M daily (Jan 2, 2025)

• Trough: $110K daily (March 2025)

A 100x swing in earnings underscores the cyclical, emotion-driven nature of this market.

Yet, the factory never stops: 30K new tokens launch daily on Pump.fun, accounting for half of Solana’s DEX volume.

With such extreme highs and lows, pinning down a "fair" valuation is nearly impossible.

A Drained Market’s Last Gamble?
Pump.fun isn’t standing still—rumors of a token, experiments with AMMs, and live-streaming features show ambition.

But the broader Meme market looks exhausted.

Signs of drought are everywhere:

• Meme market cap plummeted $40B (from $137B in Dec 2024 to $96B).

• Solana DEX volumes down 20% YoY.

• Most new tokens rush to zero, with shorter lifespans and cutthroat PvP.

Occasional "golden dogs" can’t mask the fatigue. Retail investors, once frenzied, now hesitate. Communities crave fresh narratives—AI, stablecoins, corporate crypto—not another overhyped launchpad.

Pump.fun’s track record also raises eyebrows:

• In 2024, it repeatedly dumped SOL earnings for USDC.

• Since January 2025, it sold $182M worth of SOL, sapping liquidity and confidence.

Skepticism runs deep. As researcher Haotian notes:
"A Meme launchpad eclipsing DeFi blue chips in valuation? This could mark Meme’s maturity—or the industry’s moral collapse."

What’s Next?
If Pump.fun raises $1B, will it actually revolutionize Meme economics?

Current signs point to no.

Worse, rivals are already emerging, chipping away at its dominance.

Final boss or final rug pull? Until the answer’s clear, caution is wise.

The Final Boss or the Final Rug Pull?
Meme coins are still being launched, but the market’s enthusiasm seems to be waning.

While new Memes appear daily, how long has it been since we last saw a truly viral "golden dog" like last year?

The Meme hype may be fading, but that hasn’t stopped Meme launchpads from charging ahead.

On June 4, Blockworks reported that Pump.fun plans to launch its token, aiming to raise $1 billion at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $4 billion, selling roughly 25% of the supply.

The offering targets both public and private investors, with rumors of an airdrop and a potential token ticker $PUMP, though details remain unclear.

Is Meme Culture Doomed?
Pump.fun has yet to confirm the plan, but for context, Circle—the issuer of stablecoin USDC—sought a $7.2 billion valuation for its IPO.

Market reactions are mixed.

News of the token launch briefly sent ALON (a meme coin named after Pump.fun’s founder @a1lon_9) soaring 102%, proving the gambling mindset is alive and well.

Some applaud Pump.fun’s revenue potential, hoping for dividends or governance perks. Others scoff at the $4B valuation, calling it a blatant cash grab.

Fervor and fatigue collide—opportunity and risk entwined.

If this launchpad, so deeply tied to trading, speculation, and volatility, rolls out its token, will it revive a parched market… or deliver one final rug pull?

The answer may lie in its valuation logic and market pulse.

Is Pump.fun Really Worth $4 Billion?
If Blockworks’ report holds, $PUMP’s FDV would hover around $4B. Does that make sense?

Let’s crunch some numbers.

Public data shows Pump.fun generated $296M in revenue by May 2025. Annualized, that’s roughly $710M ($296M ÷ 5 × 12).

Using traditional metrics:

• Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio: 5.63 ($4B ÷ $710M), implying investors pay $5.63 per $1 of revenue—similar to Uniswap and other DeFi projects.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E): Assuming 50% profit-sharing ($355M), P/E would be ~11.4, below the average for U.S. tech stocks.

But Meme businesses don’t play by traditional rules. Valuation hinges more on FOMO and sentiment than fundamentals.

Circle’s $7.2B IPO valuation rests on USDC’s stable, compliant model. Pump.fun—a Meme launchpad—claiming over half that valuation feels… off.

Worse, Pump.fun’s revenue is wildly volatile:

• Peak: $14M daily (Jan 2, 2025)

• Trough: $110K daily (March 2025)

A 100x swing in earnings underscores the cyclical, emotion-driven nature of this market.

Yet, the factory never stops: 30K new tokens launch daily on Pump.fun, accounting for half of Solana’s DEX volume.

With such extreme highs and lows, pinning down a "fair" valuation is nearly impossible.

A Drained Market’s Last Gamble?
Pump.fun isn’t standing still—rumors of a token, experiments with AMMs, and live-streaming features show ambition.

But the broader Meme market looks exhausted.

Signs of drought are everywhere:

• Meme market cap plummeted $40B (from $137B in Dec 2024 to $96B).

• Solana DEX volumes down 20% YoY.

• Most new tokens rush to zero, with shorter lifespans and cutthroat PvP.

Occasional "golden dogs" can’t mask the fatigue. Retail investors, once frenzied, now hesitate. Communities crave fresh narratives—AI, stablecoins, corporate crypto—not another overhyped launchpad.

Pump.fun’s track record also raises eyebrows:

• In 2024, it repeatedly dumped SOL earnings for USDC.

• Since January 2025, it sold $182M worth of SOL, sapping liquidity and confidence.

Skepticism runs deep. As researcher Haotian notes:
"A Meme launchpad eclipsing DeFi blue chips in valuation? This could mark Meme’s maturity—or the industry’s moral collapse."

What’s Next?
If Pump.fun raises $1B, will it actually revolutionize Meme economics?

Current signs point to no.

Worse, rivals are already emerging, chipping away at its dominance.

Final boss or final rug pull? Until the answer’s clear, caution is wise.