I. Core Thesis: Anchoring Expectations Amid a Fractured Fed The macro spotlight is fixed on two forces: the Fed’s “policy split” and the growing “information vacuum.” Together they whip up short-term volatility while quietly laying the structural groundwork for the next major move. Macro bedrock: Traders are almost unanimous—another 25 bp cut is baked in for the October FOMC. Powell’s “flexible-dove” guidance has locked that expectation in place and widened the door for further easing. Immedi...

I. Core Thesis: Anchoring Expectations Amid a Fractured Fed The macro spotlight is fixed on two forces: the Fed’s “policy split” and the growing “information vacuum.” Together they whip up short-term volatility while quietly laying the structural groundwork for the next major move. Macro bedrock: Traders are almost unanimous—another 25 bp cut is baked in for the October FOMC. Powell’s “flexible-dove” guidance has locked that expectation in place and widened the door for further easing. Immedi...