In Kaito's airdrop frenzy, Yap points and Genesis NFTs have become the focal points of market attention, with discussions about their value intensifying. Multiple analytical models have attempted to predict the reasonable valuation of Yap and NFTs, and the conclusions drawn under different assumptions have gradually transformed market expectations from rational speculation to a full-blown FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) frenzy.

Valuation in the crypto market is traditionally based on narrative and capital flow. The first model directly starts from Kaito's future Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) to calculate the potential value of Yap.

KOL Ren_gmi used the formula FDV × Airdrop Ratio / Total Circulating Supply, with the following assumptions:

• Kaito's FDV is $1 billion.

• 30% of tokens are allocated for airdrops.

• The Yapper program runs for 90 days, releasing a total of 2.275 million Yap.

Based on these assumptions, the model calculates that the value of Yap could reach $131, far exceeding mainstream market expectations.

However, this derivation has obvious flaws:

• Additional NFT airdrops are not considered, which may affect the actual returns of Yappers.

• The total supply of Yap is overly idealistic; actual circulating supply may be influenced by factors such as exchange listings and the project's distribution schedule.

Despite these limitations, the model still provides an extreme value under optimistic market expectations, offering theoretical support for the attractiveness of Kaito's airdrop.

Compared to the pure FDV derivation, KOL DeFiTeddy2020 adopted a more Kaito-ecosystem-aligned NFT voting power model.

In Kaito's design, Genesis NFTs grant holders greater say in ecosystem governance and also carry airdrop weight. Therefore, the model assumes:

• The market price of a single Genesis NFT is 9.3 ETH.

• The corresponding voting weight is 1,162 Yap.

Based on this, the theoretical value of each Yap is calculated to be approximately $22.

This method starts from the market pricing of NFTs, attempting to establish a relative valuation relationship between Yap and NFTs. However, its limitations include:

• The risk of ETH price volatility, as the market price of NFTs can be affected by liquidity.

• Voting power weight does not necessarily directly reflect token value, and the valuation method for governance power remains unclear.

Although the value derived from this model is much lower than that from the FDV derivation method, it provides a new perspective for understanding Yap valuation from the NFT ecosystem angle.

In the Web3 space, valuation often depends on how the market benchmarks similar projects. KOL Steve_4P used a competitive comparison approach, likening Kaito to Hyperliquid to derive a more market-logical valuation range.

From a Product-Market Fit (PMF) perspective:

• Hyperliquid: Based on a mature Decentralized Exchange (DEX) model, it optimizes an already validated trading market.

• Kaito: Exploring a new paradigm in information finance (InfoFi), it has yet to form a stable market demand loop.

In terms of comparable valuation:

• Hyperliquid: Comparable to DEXs like dYdX and Drift, with clearer market recognition.

• Kaito: Currently has no direct competitors; the closest example might be Friend.tech, which has significant flaws in its social finance model.

From a token value capture analysis:

• Hyperliquid: Has a clear token burn mechanism, aiding long-term value maintenance.

• Kaito: Its revenue distribution mechanism is not yet closed-loop, leaving its token value highly uncertain.

Based on these factors, the model suggests that Kaito's token value expectations will not exceed those of Hyperliquid, meaning Yap's valuation ceiling is likely far below some of the market's extreme predictions.

Compared to theoretical derivations, the market prefers real data support. Kaito's Series A funding valuation at $87.5 million, combined with the announced 33.3% token airdrop plan, allows us to derive a more reasonable value range:

• NFT Valuation Derivation: 1,500 Genesis NFTs with a total cost of $540,000. Based on an 8x valuation expansion from funding, the total airdrop is estimated at $4.32 million, with each NFT valued at approximately $2,880.

• Yap Points Valuation Derivation: The remaining $24.555 million will be allocated to Yap point holders. Based on the current release rate, 1 Yap is valued at approximately $13.

However, funding valuation is not the final market pricing. Therefore, the model further benchmarks against Story Protocol and Berachain to derive a reasonable market range:

• Story Protocol: Valuation expansion of 16x, with a current FDV of approximately $1.73 billion. Based on its market performance, Kaito's NFTs might have an airdrop value of $2,218-$2,880, with Yap valued at $10-$13.

• Berachain: Funding valuation expansion of 8x, with a current FDV of approximately $2.8 billion. If Kaito follows the same path, NFTs might have an airdrop value of $5,357, with Yap valued at $24.

In extreme FOMO market conditions, Berachain's FDV once reached $6.75 billion. If Kaito replicates this model, its NFTs could soar to $13,000, with Yap values potentially hitting $59.

Considering the above four models, we can see different possibilities for the value of Kaito's airdrop.

Ultimately, the actual value of Kaito's airdrop will depend on the following key factors:

1. Market feedback after token listing: If liquidity is sufficient, valuation could significantly increase.

2. The project's long-term development strategy: If the InfoFi ecosystem can close the loop, token value capture will be more stable.

3. Evolution of market sentiment: The duration of the FOMO atmosphere will affect short-term value fluctuations.

One thing is certain: Kaito is stirring up a new airdrop storm in the crypto market, and how this storm will end remains to be seen by the market itself.

In Kaito's airdrop frenzy, Yap points and Genesis NFTs have become the focal points of market attention, with discussions about their value intensifying. Multiple analytical models have attempted to predict the reasonable valuation of Yap and NFTs, and the conclusions drawn under different assumptions have gradually transformed market expectations from rational speculation to a full-blown FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) frenzy.

Valuation in the crypto market is traditionally based on narrative and capital flow. The first model directly starts from Kaito's future Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) to calculate the potential value of Yap.

KOL Ren_gmi used the formula FDV × Airdrop Ratio / Total Circulating Supply, with the following assumptions:

• Kaito's FDV is $1 billion.

• 30% of tokens are allocated for airdrops.

• The Yapper program runs for 90 days, releasing a total of 2.275 million Yap.

Based on these assumptions, the model calculates that the value of Yap could reach $131, far exceeding mainstream market expectations.

However, this derivation has obvious flaws:

• Additional NFT airdrops are not considered, which may affect the actual returns of Yappers.

• The total supply of Yap is overly idealistic; actual circulating supply may be influenced by factors such as exchange listings and the project's distribution schedule.

Despite these limitations, the model still provides an extreme value under optimistic market expectations, offering theoretical support for the attractiveness of Kaito's airdrop.

Compared to the pure FDV derivation, KOL DeFiTeddy2020 adopted a more Kaito-ecosystem-aligned NFT voting power model.

In Kaito's design, Genesis NFTs grant holders greater say in ecosystem governance and also carry airdrop weight. Therefore, the model assumes:

• The market price of a single Genesis NFT is 9.3 ETH.

• The corresponding voting weight is 1,162 Yap.

Based on this, the theoretical value of each Yap is calculated to be approximately $22.

This method starts from the market pricing of NFTs, attempting to establish a relative valuation relationship between Yap and NFTs. However, its limitations include:

• The risk of ETH price volatility, as the market price of NFTs can be affected by liquidity.

• Voting power weight does not necessarily directly reflect token value, and the valuation method for governance power remains unclear.

Although the value derived from this model is much lower than that from the FDV derivation method, it provides a new perspective for understanding Yap valuation from the NFT ecosystem angle.

In the Web3 space, valuation often depends on how the market benchmarks similar projects. KOL Steve_4P used a competitive comparison approach, likening Kaito to Hyperliquid to derive a more market-logical valuation range.

From a Product-Market Fit (PMF) perspective:

• Hyperliquid: Based on a mature Decentralized Exchange (DEX) model, it optimizes an already validated trading market.

• Kaito: Exploring a new paradigm in information finance (InfoFi), it has yet to form a stable market demand loop.

In terms of comparable valuation:

• Hyperliquid: Comparable to DEXs like dYdX and Drift, with clearer market recognition.

• Kaito: Currently has no direct competitors; the closest example might be Friend.tech, which has significant flaws in its social finance model.

From a token value capture analysis:

• Hyperliquid: Has a clear token burn mechanism, aiding long-term value maintenance.

• Kaito: Its revenue distribution mechanism is not yet closed-loop, leaving its token value highly uncertain.

Based on these factors, the model suggests that Kaito's token value expectations will not exceed those of Hyperliquid, meaning Yap's valuation ceiling is likely far below some of the market's extreme predictions.

Compared to theoretical derivations, the market prefers real data support. Kaito's Series A funding valuation at $87.5 million, combined with the announced 33.3% token airdrop plan, allows us to derive a more reasonable value range:

• NFT Valuation Derivation: 1,500 Genesis NFTs with a total cost of $540,000. Based on an 8x valuation expansion from funding, the total airdrop is estimated at $4.32 million, with each NFT valued at approximately $2,880.

• Yap Points Valuation Derivation: The remaining $24.555 million will be allocated to Yap point holders. Based on the current release rate, 1 Yap is valued at approximately $13.

However, funding valuation is not the final market pricing. Therefore, the model further benchmarks against Story Protocol and Berachain to derive a reasonable market range:

• Story Protocol: Valuation expansion of 16x, with a current FDV of approximately $1.73 billion. Based on its market performance, Kaito's NFTs might have an airdrop value of $2,218-$2,880, with Yap valued at $10-$13.

• Berachain: Funding valuation expansion of 8x, with a current FDV of approximately $2.8 billion. If Kaito follows the same path, NFTs might have an airdrop value of $5,357, with Yap valued at $24.

In extreme FOMO market conditions, Berachain's FDV once reached $6.75 billion. If Kaito replicates this model, its NFTs could soar to $13,000, with Yap values potentially hitting $59.

Considering the above four models, we can see different possibilities for the value of Kaito's airdrop.

Ultimately, the actual value of Kaito's airdrop will depend on the following key factors:

1. Market feedback after token listing: If liquidity is sufficient, valuation could significantly increase.

2. The project's long-term development strategy: If the InfoFi ecosystem can close the loop, token value capture will be more stable.

3. Evolution of market sentiment: The duration of the FOMO atmosphere will affect short-term value fluctuations.

One thing is certain: Kaito is stirring up a new airdrop storm in the crypto market, and how this storm will end remains to be seen by the market itself.