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Beyond mNAV: A Deeper Dive into DATs
Most investors still judge Digital-Asset Treasuries (DATs) through the single lens of mNAV (market-cap / net-asset-value). This note—compiled from the dashboard built by our partners at Pantera—widens the frame. We disaggregate what actually drives value, how treasuries are managed, and why issuance discipline matters more than the headline premium. –––––––––– 1. The 2025 DAT Summer Is Cooling The sector exploded this year as Bitmine (BMNR), Sharplink (SBET) and Solana Company (HSDT) went mai...
AI Agents + Gamified Earning: Bondex Raises $10.5M, with a June TGE Potentially Becoming the Next 10…
I. Disruptive Innovation in the Web3 Talent Market: Bondex's Dual-Engine Approach In 2025, with the deep integration of Web3 technology and AI, Bondex is redefining the global talent market landscape with its dual-engine model of "AI agents + gamified earning." As the first Web3 career platform deeply integrating economic incentives with social networking, Bondex has completed a $10.5 million financing round, led by top-tier institutions such as Animoca Brands and Bitget. It plans to launch i...
First airdrop! Nodepay's economic model is confirmed, and the TGE is about to raise $7 million.
Nodepay NewsNodepay announced on January 9 that the final airdrop query is now online, and the token distribution for Season 0, 1, and 2 can be queried, with an initial total supply of 1 billion. However, the milestone moment for Nodepay was announced yesterday: On January 12, Nodepay announced that it would launch the first airdrop on January 14. And announced the address. In addition, the economic model is determined, with a total supply of 1 billion and an initial flow of 208,000,000. From...
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Looking Back at Rate-Cut Cycles: Does the Market Always Rally in September?
Support Christopher
Looking Back at Rate-Cut Cycles: Does the Market Always Rally in September?
Beyond mNAV: A Deeper Dive into DATs
Most investors still judge Digital-Asset Treasuries (DATs) through the single lens of mNAV (market-cap / net-asset-value). This note—compiled from the dashboard built by our partners at Pantera—widens the frame. We disaggregate what actually drives value, how treasuries are managed, and why issuance discipline matters more than the headline premium. –––––––––– 1. The 2025 DAT Summer Is Cooling The sector exploded this year as Bitmine (BMNR), Sharplink (SBET) and Solana Company (HSDT) went mai...
AI Agents + Gamified Earning: Bondex Raises $10.5M, with a June TGE Potentially Becoming the Next 10…
I. Disruptive Innovation in the Web3 Talent Market: Bondex's Dual-Engine Approach In 2025, with the deep integration of Web3 technology and AI, Bondex is redefining the global talent market landscape with its dual-engine model of "AI agents + gamified earning." As the first Web3 career platform deeply integrating economic incentives with social networking, Bondex has completed a $10.5 million financing round, led by top-tier institutions such as Animoca Brands and Bitget. It plans to launch i...
First airdrop! Nodepay's economic model is confirmed, and the TGE is about to raise $7 million.
Nodepay NewsNodepay announced on January 9 that the final airdrop query is now online, and the token distribution for Season 0, 1, and 2 can be queried, with an initial total supply of 1 billion. However, the milestone moment for Nodepay was announced yesterday: On January 12, Nodepay announced that it would launch the first airdrop on January 14. And announced the address. In addition, the economic model is determined, with a total supply of 1 billion and an initial flow of 208,000,000. From...
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TL;DR
A Fed rate cut in September is now priced at >80 %. History shows cuts are not a guaranteed “buy” signal; outcome depends on whether the move is insurance (bullish) or rescue (bearish). Crypto’s two largest bull runs (2017, 2021) were liquidity-driven, but both ended in 70–90 % draw-downs. Today’s backdrop looks like an insurance cut, with $7.2 T parked in money-market funds ready to rotate. Expect a selective alt-season—quality over quantity.
Five Fed Cuts Since 1990—What Actually Happened
Cycle | Trigger | Style | Max Cut | Equities | Nasdaq | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990–92 | S&L crisis, Gulf War | Rescue | 8 % → 3 % | +21 % | +47 % | Soft landing after recession |
1995–98 | Mid-cycle slowdown, Asia crisis | Insurance | 6 % → 4.75 % | +125 % | +135 % | Classic “soft landing” melt-up |
2001–03 | Dot-com bust, 9/11 | Rescue | 6.5 % → 1 % | –13 % | –13 % | 500 bps not enough vs. bubble unwind |
2007–09 | GFC | Rescue | 5.25 % → 0 % | –57 % | –56 % | ZIRP failed to stop crash |
2019–21 | Trade war → COVID | Insurance → Rescue | 2.5 % → 0.25 % | +98 % | +167 % | Liquidity tsunami post-March 2020 |
Take-away: Insurance cuts (1995, 2019) fed multi-year rallies; rescue cuts (2001, 2008) merely cushioned deeper falls.
Crypto’s Two Big Liquidity Bulls
2017 ICO Mania
Macro: Low-but-rising rates, leftover QE liquidity
Driver: ERC-20 ICO boom → ETH 8×, then 90 % crash of alts
2021 Everything Bubble
Macro: Zero rates + $120 B/month QE + stimmies
Drivers: DeFi TVL, NFTs, L1 wars
Peak: Total crypto cap $3 T (Nov 2021)
Draw-down: Alts ‑70–90 % once Fed pivoted hawkish
Pattern: Crypto upside is liquidity-beta squared—it outperforms on the way up and collapses on the way down.
Today: Insurance Cut + $7.2 T Powder Keg
Labor soft, inflation easing → insurance cut most likely
US money-market funds: $7.2 T record high → yields fall with cuts → rotation trigger
BTC dominance 59 % (down from 65 % in May)
Altcap +50 % since July, yet “alt-season index” only 40/100 → selective flows
Winners so far: ETH (ETF $22 B), stablecoin/RWA rails, high-FDV infra plays
Risks: Valuations & Macro Tailwinds
Most assets 80–90 % from lows; treasury-trades already crowded
Over-financialization: levered basis trades, high FDV/low float tokens
Geopolitics & tariff headlines can spark 20-30 % corrections overnight
Structural, not universal, bull—expect dispersion
Bottom Line
A September cut is likely an insurance move, not crisis firefighting. That tilts odds toward risk-on, but crypto has matured: capital will chase narratives with cash-flow, compliance, or killer use-cases. Bet on themes, not the index.
TL;DR
A Fed rate cut in September is now priced at >80 %. History shows cuts are not a guaranteed “buy” signal; outcome depends on whether the move is insurance (bullish) or rescue (bearish). Crypto’s two largest bull runs (2017, 2021) were liquidity-driven, but both ended in 70–90 % draw-downs. Today’s backdrop looks like an insurance cut, with $7.2 T parked in money-market funds ready to rotate. Expect a selective alt-season—quality over quantity.
Five Fed Cuts Since 1990—What Actually Happened
Cycle | Trigger | Style | Max Cut | Equities | Nasdaq | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990–92 | S&L crisis, Gulf War | Rescue | 8 % → 3 % | +21 % | +47 % | Soft landing after recession |
1995–98 | Mid-cycle slowdown, Asia crisis | Insurance | 6 % → 4.75 % | +125 % | +135 % | Classic “soft landing” melt-up |
2001–03 | Dot-com bust, 9/11 | Rescue | 6.5 % → 1 % | –13 % | –13 % | 500 bps not enough vs. bubble unwind |
2007–09 | GFC | Rescue | 5.25 % → 0 % | –57 % | –56 % | ZIRP failed to stop crash |
2019–21 | Trade war → COVID | Insurance → Rescue | 2.5 % → 0.25 % | +98 % | +167 % | Liquidity tsunami post-March 2020 |
Take-away: Insurance cuts (1995, 2019) fed multi-year rallies; rescue cuts (2001, 2008) merely cushioned deeper falls.
Crypto’s Two Big Liquidity Bulls
2017 ICO Mania
Macro: Low-but-rising rates, leftover QE liquidity
Driver: ERC-20 ICO boom → ETH 8×, then 90 % crash of alts
2021 Everything Bubble
Macro: Zero rates + $120 B/month QE + stimmies
Drivers: DeFi TVL, NFTs, L1 wars
Peak: Total crypto cap $3 T (Nov 2021)
Draw-down: Alts ‑70–90 % once Fed pivoted hawkish
Pattern: Crypto upside is liquidity-beta squared—it outperforms on the way up and collapses on the way down.
Today: Insurance Cut + $7.2 T Powder Keg
Labor soft, inflation easing → insurance cut most likely
US money-market funds: $7.2 T record high → yields fall with cuts → rotation trigger
BTC dominance 59 % (down from 65 % in May)
Altcap +50 % since July, yet “alt-season index” only 40/100 → selective flows
Winners so far: ETH (ETF $22 B), stablecoin/RWA rails, high-FDV infra plays
Risks: Valuations & Macro Tailwinds
Most assets 80–90 % from lows; treasury-trades already crowded
Over-financialization: levered basis trades, high FDV/low float tokens
Geopolitics & tariff headlines can spark 20-30 % corrections overnight
Structural, not universal, bull—expect dispersion
Bottom Line
A September cut is likely an insurance move, not crisis firefighting. That tilts odds toward risk-on, but crypto has matured: capital will chase narratives with cash-flow, compliance, or killer use-cases. Bet on themes, not the index.
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