At 00:00 Beijing time on March 20, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell, with global markets holding their breath in anticipation.

Financial markets are currently facing numerous uncertainties. The uniqueness of this meeting lies in that it will comprehensively assess the impact of a series of new policies from the Trump administration on the US economy, with Fed policymakers discussing the progress of inflation control and deciding whether to adjust monetary policy.

The market has already been under pressure in advance, with Bitcoin consolidating and falling back. Optimistic sentiment didn't last long, and risk markets fell again ahead of the Fed's interest rate meeting. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is around $82,715, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.

Solana, Ethereum, and XRP, among other major cryptocurrencies, have seen more significant declines. The US stock market is also under pressure, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling. Market concerns are growing that the Fed may not ease policy immediately, despite a slowdown in February's inflation data, which was not significant and only a single-month figure.

The Fed is likely to hold steady, but the "dot plot" holds secrets. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25%-4.50%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a negligible chance of a rate cut in March.

Previously, Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, partly due to the significant uncertainty brought by President Trump's economic policies, which have already begun to affect business and consumer confidence, triggering stock market declines and concerns about an economic recession.

The focus of this meeting will be the Summary of Economic Projections released alongside the policy statement, particularly the closely watched "dot plot." This chart will show the median forecasts of 19 committee members for future federal funds rates and is an important basis for the market to speculate on the future interest rate path.

Although Nomura analysts expect little change in the median forecast of this "dot plot," given the tense market sentiment and uncertainty about future rate cut expectations, any minor adjustments could trigger significant market volatility.

Under Trump's "policy fog": Stagflation looms, Wall Street sounds the alarm. Recent economic data and market sentiment indicate that analysts are beginning to worry about the risk of "stagflation," meaning that if the economy takes a turn for the worse in the future, US stocks may also fall.

Put simply, there is concern that Trump's policies could slow economic growth while simultaneously driving up prices, which is "stagflation." Wall Street institutions have already begun to worry about this and adjust their expectations accordingly.

Several institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, have recently revised downward their growth forecasts for the US economy, primarily because they believe that the Trump administration's restrictive trade and immigration policies could have adverse effects on the economy.

As for inflation, although the price index in February showed a slowdown in inflation, Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that considering the Trump administration has already imposed tariffs and may increase them in the future, the Fed may have to reconsider their inflation forecasts. Goldman Sachs even predicts that the Fed may raise the core inflation rate to 2.8% and lower the GDP growth rate to 1.8% in their 2025 economic forecasts, mainly due to the impact of tariff policies.

How do Fed expectations affect the cryptocurrency market? Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are typically seen as "risk assets," with their price movements closely related to investors' risk appetite. In a high-interest-rate environment, safer assets like bonds become more attractive, potentially causing funds to flow out of high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $83,000, with market sentiment indices still in the "fear" zone, which may suggest that the market has already anticipated potential downside risks.

According to Polymarket participants' predictions, economic uncertainty and global tensions could exacerbate bearish pressure in the cryptocurrency market. Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin closing this week between $81,000 and $87,000 is 51%.

Summary

The Fed's policy statement and Powell's remarks will undoubtedly set the tone for the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market. A dovish signal could ignite hopes for a market rebound, while a hawkish stance might prolong the current downward trend. Given the already pessimistic market sentiment, any slightly positive signal could act as a catalyst for price increases. However, for cryptocurrency investors, remaining vigilant and cautious is always the best strategy to deal with market volatility.

At 00:00 Beijing time on March 20, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, followed by a press conference by Chairman Powell, with global markets holding their breath in anticipation.

Financial markets are currently facing numerous uncertainties. The uniqueness of this meeting lies in that it will comprehensively assess the impact of a series of new policies from the Trump administration on the US economy, with Fed policymakers discussing the progress of inflation control and deciding whether to adjust monetary policy.

The market has already been under pressure in advance, with Bitcoin consolidating and falling back. Optimistic sentiment didn't last long, and risk markets fell again ahead of the Fed's interest rate meeting. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is around $82,715, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.

Solana, Ethereum, and XRP, among other major cryptocurrencies, have seen more significant declines. The US stock market is also under pressure, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices falling. Market concerns are growing that the Fed may not ease policy immediately, despite a slowdown in February's inflation data, which was not significant and only a single-month figure.

The Fed is likely to hold steady, but the "dot plot" holds secrets. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain the current federal funds rate target range of 4.25%-4.50%. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders see a negligible chance of a rate cut in March.

Previously, Fed officials have repeatedly emphasized adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, partly due to the significant uncertainty brought by President Trump's economic policies, which have already begun to affect business and consumer confidence, triggering stock market declines and concerns about an economic recession.

The focus of this meeting will be the Summary of Economic Projections released alongside the policy statement, particularly the closely watched "dot plot." This chart will show the median forecasts of 19 committee members for future federal funds rates and is an important basis for the market to speculate on the future interest rate path.

Although Nomura analysts expect little change in the median forecast of this "dot plot," given the tense market sentiment and uncertainty about future rate cut expectations, any minor adjustments could trigger significant market volatility.

Under Trump's "policy fog": Stagflation looms, Wall Street sounds the alarm. Recent economic data and market sentiment indicate that analysts are beginning to worry about the risk of "stagflation," meaning that if the economy takes a turn for the worse in the future, US stocks may also fall.

Put simply, there is concern that Trump's policies could slow economic growth while simultaneously driving up prices, which is "stagflation." Wall Street institutions have already begun to worry about this and adjust their expectations accordingly.

Several institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, have recently revised downward their growth forecasts for the US economy, primarily because they believe that the Trump administration's restrictive trade and immigration policies could have adverse effects on the economy.

As for inflation, although the price index in February showed a slowdown in inflation, Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that considering the Trump administration has already imposed tariffs and may increase them in the future, the Fed may have to reconsider their inflation forecasts. Goldman Sachs even predicts that the Fed may raise the core inflation rate to 2.8% and lower the GDP growth rate to 1.8% in their 2025 economic forecasts, mainly due to the impact of tariff policies.

How do Fed expectations affect the cryptocurrency market? Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are typically seen as "risk assets," with their price movements closely related to investors' risk appetite. In a high-interest-rate environment, safer assets like bonds become more attractive, potentially causing funds to flow out of high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $83,000, with market sentiment indices still in the "fear" zone, which may suggest that the market has already anticipated potential downside risks.

According to Polymarket participants' predictions, economic uncertainty and global tensions could exacerbate bearish pressure in the cryptocurrency market. Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin closing this week between $81,000 and $87,000 is 51%.

Summary

The Fed's policy statement and Powell's remarks will undoubtedly set the tone for the short-term direction of the cryptocurrency market. A dovish signal could ignite hopes for a market rebound, while a hawkish stance might prolong the current downward trend. Given the already pessimistic market sentiment, any slightly positive signal could act as a catalyst for price increases. However, for cryptocurrency investors, remaining vigilant and cautious is always the best strategy to deal with market volatility.