While GDP appears stable, nonfarm payrolls disappoint, and Fed rate cut whispers grow louder.

Recent U.S. economic data paints a paradoxical picture: Q2 GDP rebounded to 3.0% annualized growth (from -0.5% in Q1), yet July nonfarm payrolls added just 73K jobs—the weakest since June 2020. For crypto investors, these aren’t just headlines; they’re signals that the Fed’s monetary policy, the "invisible hand" guiding crypto markets, is shifting.

The Q2 GDP bounce was largely fueled by a 30.3% plunge in imports—a side effect of tariff-induced inventory hoarding now unwinding as demand cools. The real indicator of economic health, private domestic final sales (consumption + investment), slowed to 1.2%, the lowest since 2022. Service-sector spending growth also dipped below 2%, reflecting consumer caution.

• Nonfarm payrolls for July were revised down by 258K over the prior two months.

• The 3-month average job gain fell to 35K, matching pandemic-era lows.

• Labor participation (62.2%) and unemployment (4.2%) reveal a stagnant market: few hiring, fewer job seekers, and minimal layoffs outside healthcare/education.

Post-July FOMC, Chair Powell emphasized "downside risks to employment", signaling a shift from restrictive to neutral policy—a clear prelude to rate cuts. Markets now price in a September cut, contrasting sharply with 2018’s hiking cycle. For crypto, this liquidity injection is bullish.

• Kevin Hassett (White House CEA): Longtime dove advocating stimulus.

• Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): Favors pro-growth monetary policy.

• Kevin Warsh (Ex-Fed Governor): Former hawk now backing cuts.
  Even "moderate hawk" Christopher Waller leans pragmatic. This lineup suggests prolonged accommodation—rocket fuel for crypto.

• Aug 12, 20:30 ET: Core CPI (Expected: +0.2% MoM) → Hotter inflation delays cuts.

• Aug 14, 20:30 ET: Jobless claims (Expected: 226K) → Rising claims accelerate cuts.

• Aug 15, 20:30 ET: Retail sales (Expected: +0.6% MoM) → Weak spending = dovish pressure.

• Aug 15, 22:00 ET: U. Mich. consumer sentiment (Expected: 61.7) → Lower confidence = stronger easing bets.

The equation is simple: Cooling economy + Fed easing = improved liquidity. While short-term volatility persists, the policy shift’s direction matters more than any single data point. In crypto, "more money" is the ultimate catalyst.

Translation Note:

• Retained conversational tone (e.g., "rocket fuel for crypto") while formalizing economic terms.

• Simplified Chinese idioms (e.g., "隐形大手" → "invisible hand").

• Structured timelines for clarity.

• Highlighted contrasts (GDP vs. jobs, 2018 vs. 2025 Fed policy).

While GDP appears stable, nonfarm payrolls disappoint, and Fed rate cut whispers grow louder.

Recent U.S. economic data paints a paradoxical picture: Q2 GDP rebounded to 3.0% annualized growth (from -0.5% in Q1), yet July nonfarm payrolls added just 73K jobs—the weakest since June 2020. For crypto investors, these aren’t just headlines; they’re signals that the Fed’s monetary policy, the "invisible hand" guiding crypto markets, is shifting.

The Q2 GDP bounce was largely fueled by a 30.3% plunge in imports—a side effect of tariff-induced inventory hoarding now unwinding as demand cools. The real indicator of economic health, private domestic final sales (consumption + investment), slowed to 1.2%, the lowest since 2022. Service-sector spending growth also dipped below 2%, reflecting consumer caution.

• Nonfarm payrolls for July were revised down by 258K over the prior two months.

• The 3-month average job gain fell to 35K, matching pandemic-era lows.

• Labor participation (62.2%) and unemployment (4.2%) reveal a stagnant market: few hiring, fewer job seekers, and minimal layoffs outside healthcare/education.

Post-July FOMC, Chair Powell emphasized "downside risks to employment", signaling a shift from restrictive to neutral policy—a clear prelude to rate cuts. Markets now price in a September cut, contrasting sharply with 2018’s hiking cycle. For crypto, this liquidity injection is bullish.

• Kevin Hassett (White House CEA): Longtime dove advocating stimulus.

• Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary): Favors pro-growth monetary policy.

• Kevin Warsh (Ex-Fed Governor): Former hawk now backing cuts.
  Even "moderate hawk" Christopher Waller leans pragmatic. This lineup suggests prolonged accommodation—rocket fuel for crypto.

• Aug 12, 20:30 ET: Core CPI (Expected: +0.2% MoM) → Hotter inflation delays cuts.

• Aug 14, 20:30 ET: Jobless claims (Expected: 226K) → Rising claims accelerate cuts.

• Aug 15, 20:30 ET: Retail sales (Expected: +0.6% MoM) → Weak spending = dovish pressure.

• Aug 15, 22:00 ET: U. Mich. consumer sentiment (Expected: 61.7) → Lower confidence = stronger easing bets.

The equation is simple: Cooling economy + Fed easing = improved liquidity. While short-term volatility persists, the policy shift’s direction matters more than any single data point. In crypto, "more money" is the ultimate catalyst.

Translation Note:

• Retained conversational tone (e.g., "rocket fuel for crypto") while formalizing economic terms.

• Simplified Chinese idioms (e.g., "隐形大手" → "invisible hand").

• Structured timelines for clarity.

• Highlighted contrasts (GDP vs. jobs, 2018 vs. 2025 Fed policy).