Trump's 100-Day Crypto Policy Report Card: Why Can't Promises Stop Bitcoin's "Roller Coaster"?
Since Trump took office as the President of the United States, it has been a period of chaos for various industries. As he celebrates the first 100 days of his second term, supporters of digital assets have also begun to assess what his administration has brought to the industry.
Mateusz Kara, CEO of cryptocurrency firm Ari10, told DL News that the question is whether "we overestimated what Trump could do?"
During last year's U.S. presidential election, the cryptocurrency industry supported Trump, hoping that he would end the Biden administration's crackdown on cryptocurrencies, implement rules favorable to the industry, and usher in a bull market.
Although some regulations have been relaxed, the White House's trade war has caused the global cryptocurrency market value to shrink by nearly 21% since its peak in December last year, which is about $800 billion.
Bitcoin has fallen by more than 10% compared to the level on the day before Trump's inauguration on January 20, when it reached a record high of $109,225.
According to Dow Jones market data, earlier this month, Bitcoin was hit along with other risky assets due to tariff concerns, falling below $74,500 on April 7. As of the time of writing this article, it has rebounded to around $94,500.
Trump's 100-Day Crypto Policy Report Card: Why Can't Promises Stop Bitcoin's "Roller Coaster"?
So, what promises has Trump fulfilled so far, and where is the industry headed?
The "Crypto War" of the Biden Era
Former U.S. President Joe Biden had harshly criticized cryptocurrencies, pushing for strict regulation of the industry and supporting the crypto crackdown initiated by then-SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.
During the campaign, Trump promised to end Biden's "crypto war."
After taking office, Trump replaced Gensler with the crypto-friendly new chairman Paul Atkins, who promised to bring clarity to crypto regulation.
This year, the SEC withdrew lawsuits against cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, and Kraken.
Trump also appointed industry supporters, such as financial tycoon Howard Lutnick, who supports Tether, as Secretary of Commerce, and David Sacks as Crypto Czar.
In his first 100 days in office, Trump issued a series of comprehensive orders banning the creation of a digital dollar, protecting self-custody, establishing a regulatory crypto advisory group, and setting up a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
He also pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, and held the first White House Crypto Summit.
This year, federal regulators withdrew several crypto guidelines from the Biden era, paving the way for financial institutions to enter the crypto service market.
Symbolism > Substantive Benefits?
In short, it seems that Trump has fulfilled most of his cryptocurrency promises. So, why are some market observers dissatisfied?
Jonathan Dixon, an executive at regulatory tech firm eflow Global, told DL News: "So far, many campaign promises seem more symbolic than substantive."
"The Bitcoin reserve is essentially a rebranding exercise— these assets have already been held by the government and are not a sign of active market participation."
Dixon said that although Trump's actions mark a "rhetorical shift from the previous administration," "rhetoric alone does not translate into regulatory certainty."
The Trump administration has not yet pushed through new laws, but some are advancing on Capitol Hill.
Republican Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina said in early April: "We are making good progress."
Eric Rose, Head of Digital Assets at StoneX Digital, pointed out: "These are all very positive factors for the field, but they need time to prove themselves... Just because banks are allowed to enter the digital asset field does not mean they can do so tomorrow, right? They need time to formulate strategies, decide on the direction they want to develop, how to implement those strategies, and hire the relevant personnel."
Eric Rose told Market Watch that it could take up to two years of preparation.
The Chaos Brought by the Trade War
Mateusz Kara, CEO of Ari10, said: "The market may be disappointed with Trump's administration because we have not seen the market go up. This is the result of the delayed interest rate cuts and the chaos that Trump has brought to the market."
Trump has so far failed to fulfill his promise to cut interest rates, which are seen as a catalyst for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.
This is one of the reasons why Bitcoin soared when the central bank cut interest rates in September and November.
The problem is that the Federal Reserve operates independently of the White House, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is unwilling to cut interest rates, especially after Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on nearly 100 countries (including an island nation whose residents are mostly "penguins") and made the financial future of the United States more uncertain.
After Trump stopped these tariffs, the overall cryptocurrency market slightly recovered, but any hostile actions could offset this effect.
Anthony Young, Chief Business Officer of cryptocurrency risk management company CoinCover, said: "The U.S. government's trade war will inevitably affect the cryptocurrency industry, and the focus is on whether cryptocurrencies can continue to act as a hedge against global market behavior."
Some people believe that Trump's trade war may be beneficial to cryptocurrencies.
Papuna Lezhava, CEO and co-founder of fintech startup Keepz and former advisor to the International Monetary Fund, said: "Trump's foreign trade policy may actually make cryptocurrencies more attractive to those who wish to avoid the traditional financial system or government-controlled currencies."