Market Analysis and Future Trends

The market has been oscillating between 100,000 and 110,000 for two weeks, with both weekly charts showing doji patterns. Last week closed with a bearish candle. This week is likely to see a directional breakout, potentially forming a top or bottom for the month-end trend. Even if it doesn’t break through this week, it will reach a critical level: an upward move could push it above 110,000 without setting a new high, while a downward move might test the 100,000 mark, consolidating in the 100,000 to 103,000 range before potentially breaking lower after the 20th.

Adapting to Market Volatility

I’ve decided to stop rigidly predicting bullish or bearish trends. The market is inherently volatile. Even if I get the direction right today, if you wait until the trend completes and then enter, only to criticize my analysis, it’s futile. For example, when I suggested chasing Ethereum after Bitcoin’s breakout, some criticized me because it didn’t hit 3,000. What could I do if Bitcoin dragged the market down? If Bitcoin had held steady, Ethereum hitting 3,000 would have been a matter of a single strong bullish candle.

Today, I’ll skip the specifics on short-term price levels and instead discuss the future trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Key Influences on Market Trends

Currently, the main factors influencing market trends are primarily the actions of the U.S. government. Will the U.S. directly intervene in conflicts? Will social unrest escalate further? And what about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and Powell’s statements? The rate decisions are unlikely to surprise; there won’t be a rate cut, and the earliest we might see one is in September. However, we can’t ignore Powell’s statements—he often changes his tone abruptly, turning what seemed like a positive outlook into a negative one with just a few words.

Historical Context and Modern-Day Parallels

A few days ago, I came across a thought-provoking question: When did people realize that World War II had begun? Is the current global situation indicative of the start of World War III? World War II is widely recognized to have started on September 1, 1939, with Germany’s invasion of Poland, marking the outbreak in Europe. In Asia, the conflict began even earlier, with Japan’s “Marco Polo Bridge Incident” on July 7, 1937, which initiated the full-scale invasion of China. The 1931 “Mukden Incident” can be seen as a prelude to Japan’s expansion. The global war truly took shape on December 7, 1941, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, leading to the U.S. declaration of war and the outbreak of the Pacific War.

Looking at today’s global situation, we see conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, the India-Pakistan tensions, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Houthi rebellion in Yemen, and most recently, Israel’s airstrike on Iran. Does this mean World War III has already begun? Most people would argue that it hasn’t, because these are localized disputes involving smaller nations or militarily weaker countries. Without the direct involvement of the U.S. and China, the world’s two major military powers, these conflicts are essentially minor skirmishes—after all, the combined military strength of the rest of the world pales in comparison to that of the U.S. and China.

As long as China maintains stability in Asia, the Korean Peninsula remains calm, Latin America stays peaceful, and NATO doesn’t descend into internal chaos, these conflicts will remain localized in the Middle East among Muslim-majority countries, which won’t significantly impact the global economy. As long as the U.S. and Europe don’t provoke wars in Asia, especially East Asia, these conflicts won’t escalate into World War III.

Geopolitical Speculations

Will the U.S. support Israel? Israel is currently in a precarious position, with Pakistan feeling threatened and preparing to support Iran. Given Israel’s aggressive style, it might attack Iran and then move on to Pakistan. In such a scenario, it’s conceivable that the U.S. could fully support Israel, expanding the conflict to Pakistan. Faced with this situation, would China support Pakistan? The U.S. supporting Israel, the Jewish financial interests helping the U.S. government resolve domestic issues and the debt problem, and Israel escalating the war to draw China in—this could be a multi-benefit strategy, though these are just my personal speculations.

Trade Concessions and Underlying Motives

Don’t be fooled by the U.S. concessions on trade tariffs. They’ve backed down because they’ve seen China’s determination and realized that continuing to press the issue would lead to widespread social unrest in the U.S. For us, it’s a matter of making slightly less profit, but for many Americans, it could mean struggling to survive. So, this concession is merely a delaying tactic. In reality, the U.S. will continue to stir up trouble. Unable to shake China’s position in manufacturing and trade, they will likely resort to other means. Between the U.S. and China, the only significant leverage the U.S. has is its military and weapons, which are still somewhat useful for trade with third-world countries.

Global Power Dynamics

Even though China’s military and weapons are on par with, if not superior to, those of the U.S., most countries still fear the U.S.’s deterrent power. After decades of coercion and enticement, many nations reluctantly acknowledge the U.S. position, with only a few truly recognizing China’s stance. This is largely due to the U.S.-backed pro-American factions. So, even if the U.S. doesn’t directly engage in combat, it will continue to destabilize the world to suppress other countries’ development and maintain its global dominance. It’s similar to a village head who, though unable to lead everyone to prosperity, won’t allow anyone else to do so either, as it threatens his position. The underlying logic is the same: if you have the potential to compete, they will try to undermine you to maintain their influence.

The U.S. Strategy: War and Profit

The U.S. is now in a situation where it must maintain its status while profiting from wars and diverting domestic conflicts. Some people in the U.S., facing economic hardships, might think that a war could lead to a reshuffling of power, just as some in China might say, “Let’s have a war; maybe chaos will bring new opportunities.” I believe the U.S. will continue to use every means possible to stir up global trouble, even resorting to direct military action in extreme cases. Even if the U.S. doesn’t split in the future, it will still be dragged into the quagmire, as it can no longer maintain its advantage or sustain high welfare through peaceful development. The key is that it can no longer exploit China, and other countries offer little benefit. Even if the U.S. squeezes every bit of value from its allies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam, it won’t solve the problem.

Economic Outlook and Crypto’s Potential

The global economy is already on a downward trend, and economic decline is inevitable. At least for the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy and financial markets won’t fare well, which will have a short-term impact on the cryptocurrency market—given the significant influence of U.S. stocks on crypto. However, in the long run, this could be a boon for crypto. As the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate and global financial markets remain sluggish, crypto could emerge as a safe-haven asset. It’s conceivable that funds could flood into the crypto market, driven by institutional influence.

Conclusion: Chaos as an Opportunity for Crypto

I believe that the short-term bearishness is just a temporary setback. In the long run, the more chaotic the world becomes, the more favorable it will be for crypto. Some might find this view laughable: how could crypto thrive in a world in chaos? But when the global situation truly deteriorates, would you rather have gold, the U.S. dollar, the Chinese yuan, or Bitcoin?

Market Analysis and Future Trends

The market has been oscillating between 100,000 and 110,000 for two weeks, with both weekly charts showing doji patterns. Last week closed with a bearish candle. This week is likely to see a directional breakout, potentially forming a top or bottom for the month-end trend. Even if it doesn’t break through this week, it will reach a critical level: an upward move could push it above 110,000 without setting a new high, while a downward move might test the 100,000 mark, consolidating in the 100,000 to 103,000 range before potentially breaking lower after the 20th.

Adapting to Market Volatility

I’ve decided to stop rigidly predicting bullish or bearish trends. The market is inherently volatile. Even if I get the direction right today, if you wait until the trend completes and then enter, only to criticize my analysis, it’s futile. For example, when I suggested chasing Ethereum after Bitcoin’s breakout, some criticized me because it didn’t hit 3,000. What could I do if Bitcoin dragged the market down? If Bitcoin had held steady, Ethereum hitting 3,000 would have been a matter of a single strong bullish candle.

Today, I’ll skip the specifics on short-term price levels and instead discuss the future trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Key Influences on Market Trends

Currently, the main factors influencing market trends are primarily the actions of the U.S. government. Will the U.S. directly intervene in conflicts? Will social unrest escalate further? And what about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and Powell’s statements? The rate decisions are unlikely to surprise; there won’t be a rate cut, and the earliest we might see one is in September. However, we can’t ignore Powell’s statements—he often changes his tone abruptly, turning what seemed like a positive outlook into a negative one with just a few words.

Historical Context and Modern-Day Parallels

A few days ago, I came across a thought-provoking question: When did people realize that World War II had begun? Is the current global situation indicative of the start of World War III? World War II is widely recognized to have started on September 1, 1939, with Germany’s invasion of Poland, marking the outbreak in Europe. In Asia, the conflict began even earlier, with Japan’s “Marco Polo Bridge Incident” on July 7, 1937, which initiated the full-scale invasion of China. The 1931 “Mukden Incident” can be seen as a prelude to Japan’s expansion. The global war truly took shape on December 7, 1941, when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, leading to the U.S. declaration of war and the outbreak of the Pacific War.

Looking at today’s global situation, we see conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, the India-Pakistan tensions, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Houthi rebellion in Yemen, and most recently, Israel’s airstrike on Iran. Does this mean World War III has already begun? Most people would argue that it hasn’t, because these are localized disputes involving smaller nations or militarily weaker countries. Without the direct involvement of the U.S. and China, the world’s two major military powers, these conflicts are essentially minor skirmishes—after all, the combined military strength of the rest of the world pales in comparison to that of the U.S. and China.

As long as China maintains stability in Asia, the Korean Peninsula remains calm, Latin America stays peaceful, and NATO doesn’t descend into internal chaos, these conflicts will remain localized in the Middle East among Muslim-majority countries, which won’t significantly impact the global economy. As long as the U.S. and Europe don’t provoke wars in Asia, especially East Asia, these conflicts won’t escalate into World War III.

Geopolitical Speculations

Will the U.S. support Israel? Israel is currently in a precarious position, with Pakistan feeling threatened and preparing to support Iran. Given Israel’s aggressive style, it might attack Iran and then move on to Pakistan. In such a scenario, it’s conceivable that the U.S. could fully support Israel, expanding the conflict to Pakistan. Faced with this situation, would China support Pakistan? The U.S. supporting Israel, the Jewish financial interests helping the U.S. government resolve domestic issues and the debt problem, and Israel escalating the war to draw China in—this could be a multi-benefit strategy, though these are just my personal speculations.

Trade Concessions and Underlying Motives

Don’t be fooled by the U.S. concessions on trade tariffs. They’ve backed down because they’ve seen China’s determination and realized that continuing to press the issue would lead to widespread social unrest in the U.S. For us, it’s a matter of making slightly less profit, but for many Americans, it could mean struggling to survive. So, this concession is merely a delaying tactic. In reality, the U.S. will continue to stir up trouble. Unable to shake China’s position in manufacturing and trade, they will likely resort to other means. Between the U.S. and China, the only significant leverage the U.S. has is its military and weapons, which are still somewhat useful for trade with third-world countries.

Global Power Dynamics

Even though China’s military and weapons are on par with, if not superior to, those of the U.S., most countries still fear the U.S.’s deterrent power. After decades of coercion and enticement, many nations reluctantly acknowledge the U.S. position, with only a few truly recognizing China’s stance. This is largely due to the U.S.-backed pro-American factions. So, even if the U.S. doesn’t directly engage in combat, it will continue to destabilize the world to suppress other countries’ development and maintain its global dominance. It’s similar to a village head who, though unable to lead everyone to prosperity, won’t allow anyone else to do so either, as it threatens his position. The underlying logic is the same: if you have the potential to compete, they will try to undermine you to maintain their influence.

The U.S. Strategy: War and Profit

The U.S. is now in a situation where it must maintain its status while profiting from wars and diverting domestic conflicts. Some people in the U.S., facing economic hardships, might think that a war could lead to a reshuffling of power, just as some in China might say, “Let’s have a war; maybe chaos will bring new opportunities.” I believe the U.S. will continue to use every means possible to stir up global trouble, even resorting to direct military action in extreme cases. Even if the U.S. doesn’t split in the future, it will still be dragged into the quagmire, as it can no longer maintain its advantage or sustain high welfare through peaceful development. The key is that it can no longer exploit China, and other countries offer little benefit. Even if the U.S. squeezes every bit of value from its allies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam, it won’t solve the problem.

Economic Outlook and Crypto’s Potential

The global economy is already on a downward trend, and economic decline is inevitable. At least for the foreseeable future, the U.S. economy and financial markets won’t fare well, which will have a short-term impact on the cryptocurrency market—given the significant influence of U.S. stocks on crypto. However, in the long run, this could be a boon for crypto. As the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate and global financial markets remain sluggish, crypto could emerge as a safe-haven asset. It’s conceivable that funds could flood into the crypto market, driven by institutional influence.

Conclusion: Chaos as an Opportunity for Crypto

I believe that the short-term bearishness is just a temporary setback. In the long run, the more chaotic the world becomes, the more favorable it will be for crypto. Some might find this view laughable: how could crypto thrive in a world in chaos? But when the global situation truly deteriorates, would you rather have gold, the U.S. dollar, the Chinese yuan, or Bitcoin?