A new report by Bitcoin researcher Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research suggests the current market phase represents Bitcoin’s "robust strength" period—potentially the midpoint of one of its most significant bull cycles in history.

The report, How to Position for the Bitcoin Bull Market, led by economist and early Bitcoin investor Tuur Demeester, projects a 4–10x price surge from current levels, implying a long-term target above $500,000:

"We believe Bitcoin is in the middle of what could become one of its most consequential bull markets. From today’s range, we see 4–10x upside potential, translating to a price exceeding half a million dollars."

Multiple metrics indicate strong holder conviction:

• Whale Behavior: Large investors continue holding rather than distributing. Net holder position changes show no signs of mass capitulation in 2025—a pattern typically seen at market tops.

  "While whales moved some coins during the U.S. election volatility in 2024, daily net transfers in 2025 have never exceeded 100K BTC—a threshold historically linked to late-cycle frenzy."

• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): 50%–70% of Bitcoin’s supply is in unrealized profit, consistent with healthy mid-cycle momentum, not euphoria.

The report acknowledges potential pullback catalysts but downplays their threat:

• Exchange Hacks: While damaging to sentiment, past incidents (e.g., Bitfinex’s 120K BTC theft in 2016) had negligible price impact.

• Mt. Gox Distributions: Market absorbed 80K BTC released in July 2025 with just a 4% price fluctuation.

• Coinbase Centralization: Despite holding ~10% of BTC supply, ETF custodians are diversifying, and U.S. policy shifts reduce confiscation risks.

Even macro crashes may cause short-term volatility, but Bitcoin is expected to outperform commodities and inflation long-term.

The report abandons its 2015 recommendation to allocate to altcoins, now advocating exclusive Bitcoin exposure:

"Avoid diluting capital into projects vastly inferior to Bitcoin—they lack its network effects, security model, and monetary purity."

Demeester compares Bitcoin to the internet’s foundational protocol, predicting competitors like Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will fade in relevance.

• Store-of-Demand Demand: Fueled by:

  • Persistent inflation and fiscal deficits.

  • Erosion of bonds’ safe-haven status.

  • Declining appeal of real estate hedging.

  • Capital rotation into high-liquidity, low-counterparty-risk assets.

• U.S. Policy Tailwinds:

  • Strategic national Bitcoin reserves.

  • Pro-Bitcoin legislation (e.g., GENIUS Act).

  • Rapid ETF adoption (holding 1.4M BTC).

These moves are triggering a global domino effect, pushing other nations to formulate Bitcoin strategies.

Recommended Bitcoin exposure varies by risk appetite:

• 5%: "Insurance" against systemic risk.

• 10%: Speculative hedge in a diversified portfolio.

• 20%–50%: High-conviction "early retirement" play.

For custody, collaborative multisig setups are endorsed as the optimal balance of security and self-sovereignty.

Demeester and Adamant Research conclude that Bitcoin’s bull run is far from over, with institutional adoption, macro tailwinds, and unwavering holder resolve laying the groundwork for historic appreciation.

The current phase is a mid-cycle consolidation, not a top. If Bitcoin fulfills its store-of-value promise, the coming years could redefine its role in the global financial system.

End of Report

A new report by Bitcoin researcher Tuur Demeester and Adamant Research suggests the current market phase represents Bitcoin’s "robust strength" period—potentially the midpoint of one of its most significant bull cycles in history.

The report, How to Position for the Bitcoin Bull Market, led by economist and early Bitcoin investor Tuur Demeester, projects a 4–10x price surge from current levels, implying a long-term target above $500,000:

"We believe Bitcoin is in the middle of what could become one of its most consequential bull markets. From today’s range, we see 4–10x upside potential, translating to a price exceeding half a million dollars."

Multiple metrics indicate strong holder conviction:

• Whale Behavior: Large investors continue holding rather than distributing. Net holder position changes show no signs of mass capitulation in 2025—a pattern typically seen at market tops.

  "While whales moved some coins during the U.S. election volatility in 2024, daily net transfers in 2025 have never exceeded 100K BTC—a threshold historically linked to late-cycle frenzy."

• NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): 50%–70% of Bitcoin’s supply is in unrealized profit, consistent with healthy mid-cycle momentum, not euphoria.

The report acknowledges potential pullback catalysts but downplays their threat:

• Exchange Hacks: While damaging to sentiment, past incidents (e.g., Bitfinex’s 120K BTC theft in 2016) had negligible price impact.

• Mt. Gox Distributions: Market absorbed 80K BTC released in July 2025 with just a 4% price fluctuation.

• Coinbase Centralization: Despite holding ~10% of BTC supply, ETF custodians are diversifying, and U.S. policy shifts reduce confiscation risks.

Even macro crashes may cause short-term volatility, but Bitcoin is expected to outperform commodities and inflation long-term.

The report abandons its 2015 recommendation to allocate to altcoins, now advocating exclusive Bitcoin exposure:

"Avoid diluting capital into projects vastly inferior to Bitcoin—they lack its network effects, security model, and monetary purity."

Demeester compares Bitcoin to the internet’s foundational protocol, predicting competitors like Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano will fade in relevance.

• Store-of-Demand Demand: Fueled by:

  • Persistent inflation and fiscal deficits.

  • Erosion of bonds’ safe-haven status.

  • Declining appeal of real estate hedging.

  • Capital rotation into high-liquidity, low-counterparty-risk assets.

• U.S. Policy Tailwinds:

  • Strategic national Bitcoin reserves.

  • Pro-Bitcoin legislation (e.g., GENIUS Act).

  • Rapid ETF adoption (holding 1.4M BTC).

These moves are triggering a global domino effect, pushing other nations to formulate Bitcoin strategies.

Recommended Bitcoin exposure varies by risk appetite:

• 5%: "Insurance" against systemic risk.

• 10%: Speculative hedge in a diversified portfolio.

• 20%–50%: High-conviction "early retirement" play.

For custody, collaborative multisig setups are endorsed as the optimal balance of security and self-sovereignty.

Demeester and Adamant Research conclude that Bitcoin’s bull run is far from over, with institutional adoption, macro tailwinds, and unwavering holder resolve laying the groundwork for historic appreciation.

The current phase is a mid-cycle consolidation, not a top. If Bitcoin fulfills its store-of-value promise, the coming years could redefine its role in the global financial system.

End of Report