Following the U.S. SEC's approval of a universal listing standard for spot crypto ETFs, shifting its regulatory approach from "case-by-case approval" to "standardized efficiency," the original decision deadlines for numerous applications have effectively become moot.

The new rules create a "fast track" for crypto asset ETFs meeting specific criteria, primarily targeting assets with CFTC-regulated futures contracts existing for over six months.

The SEC has requested that ETF applicants for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE withdraw their existing 19b-4 filing documents and re-submit under the new standards. The first batch of approved ETFs will likely emerge from these five cryptocurrencies, with approvals potentially happening "exceptionally quickly," possibly within October.

XRP and SOL ETFs are viewed as having high approval probabilities, due to reduced regulatory hurdles and active filing amendments by institutions, respectively. LTC, with its market stability and compliance advantages, ADA, pushed actively by Grayscale, and DOGE, as the first potential Meme ETF, all stand a chance in the initial approval wave.

The ETF decisions in October will be a critical turning point for the crypto market, influencing the scale and speed of institutional capital inflow and the prices of the underlying cryptocurrencies.

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Summary

Among the many catalysts in this crypto bull market, ETFs—particularly spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—have played a key role as a "bridge for capital," significantly lowering the barrier to entry. Since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, the industry has attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in institutional inflows, pushing Bitcoin's price from $60,000 to the current ~$113,500.

Currently, the U.S. SEC has 92 spot crypto ETFs (including single-asset and index-type) awaiting review. Single-asset ETFs account for about 69 of these, covering 24 different cryptocurrencies. Applications from institutions like Grayscale and VanEck mostly have final decision deadlines set for October.

Against this backdrop, the SEC recently approved a proposal, fundamentally changing how spot crypto ETFs are listed. Therefore, the approval situation in October will not only be a turning point for the crypto ETF wave but also reflect the future direction of this bull market.

SEC Approves Rule Change: From "Case-by-Case" to "Standard Clearance"

On September 7th, the U.S. SEC approved rule changes proposed by three major exchanges (Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca), introducing a universal listing standard for "Commodity-Based Trust Shares." This standard primarily targets exchange-traded products (ETPs) holding physical commodities (including digital assets), aiming to streamline the listing process by replacing the cumbersome case-by-case review.

The SEC Chair stated these changes mark a shift from "cautious, case-by-case" to "standardized and efficient" regulation of digital asset ETPs, aiming to "maximize investor choice and foster innovation."

The core of the new regulation outlines three listing paths:

1. The commodity trades on a market that is a member of the Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG) and has a market surveillance sharing agreement.

2. Futures on the commodity have been listed on a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) for at least six months and have a surveillance sharing agreement.

3. If an existing ETF is listed on a U.S. national securities exchange and has at least 40% of its assets allocated to the commodity, a new ETP may be exempt from certain requirements.

In short, the new rules create a "fast track" for crypto ETFs meeting specific conditions. Based on these paths, October could see an "outbreak" of the first new ETF listings, focusing on assets with CFTC-regulated futures existing for over six months.

Original Decision Dates "Moot," Issuers "Back to the Starting Line"

The生效 of the new standards directly impacted the queued ETF applications. On September 29th, the SEC requested issuers for LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE spot ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings. Issuers must now proceed under the new standards. This withdrawal does not mean the ETF applications are denied but rather shifts them to a more efficient regulatory path.

Critically, after withdrawing the 19b-4 filings, their original decision dates are likely no longer relevant. Under the new rules, the SEC can conduct rapid assessments based on the universal standard without strict deadlines.

Regarding the exact timing of approvals, while issuers need to re-submit or adjust applications according to the new rules—potentially involving extra administrative work and brief delays—most observers remain optimistic, believing approvals could be "exceptionally rapid," similar to the few weeks it took for ETH ETF approvals after withdrawal, meaning potential approval in October.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett analyzed that "as long as the token meets the existing criteria, the SEC can approve a cryptocurrency ETF at any time once the S-1 filing is submitted. So, even with individual ETF deadlines looming, the SEC could theoretically decide on any or all of them at any time."

However, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart cautioned, "Everything is uncertain. Add in the potential for a government shutdown, and things could get very unstable."

While it's unclear how quickly the SEC will process S-1 filings, eliminating the predictive power of the original decision dates, this change optimizes the process and reduces delays for future crypto ETFs entering the market.

Which of the Five Major Candidates Will Lead the ETF Race?

Although the previously queued ETF applications are back at the "starting line," the SEC's withdrawal requests currently only involve LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE, suggesting the first approved ETFs will likely come from this group (or all might be approved).

1. XRP ETFs: A focal point for October. Seven XRP ETF applications exist. XRP futures have been on CME for over a year, meeting the new rules. Bloomberg analysts previously raised the approval probability to 95%, citing increased SEC engagement as a "clear green light." A key advantage is its perceived status as a commodity by regulators, significantly reducing hurdles.

2. SOL ETFs: Highly watched, with seven major institutions involved. Recently, issuers submitted updated S-1 forms detailing staking operations. Post-withdrawal request, Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas raised the SOL ETF approval odds from 95% to 100%, noting the universal standard makes the 19b-4 form meaningless, leaving only S-1 matters. Notably, BlackRock has not filed for a Solana ETF, possibly reflecting caution about its regulatory risk.

3. LTC ETFs: As one of the longest-running cryptocurrencies, LTC boasts high security and decentralization. Three LTC ETF applications exist. Its longstanding market stability, strong compliance, and technical similarity to Bitcoin give it a high probability of being in the first batch. LTC hasn't been labeled a security like XRP or SOL, aligning more closely with Bitcoin's commodity attributes.

4. Cardano (ADA) ETF: Grayscale plans to convert its Cardano Trust to an ETF. Known for its academic foundation and sustainability, its approval would be the first non-ETH PoS platform product. Grayscale's GDLC fund, which includes ADA, was already approved in July, boosting the ADA ETF's prospects.

5. DOGE ETFs: Three applications exist. Approval would make it the first Meme ETF.

Conclusion

The critical window in October will be a significant turning point in crypto ETF history, regardless of the final outcome. It will not only affect the prices of related cryptocurrencies but also determine the scale and speed of institutional capital flowing into crypto. The market is maturing, and October's ETF decisions could be a key step in its further mainstream acceptance.

Following the U.S. SEC's approval of a universal listing standard for spot crypto ETFs, shifting its regulatory approach from "case-by-case approval" to "standardized efficiency," the original decision deadlines for numerous applications have effectively become moot.

The new rules create a "fast track" for crypto asset ETFs meeting specific criteria, primarily targeting assets with CFTC-regulated futures contracts existing for over six months.

The SEC has requested that ETF applicants for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA, and DOGE withdraw their existing 19b-4 filing documents and re-submit under the new standards. The first batch of approved ETFs will likely emerge from these five cryptocurrencies, with approvals potentially happening "exceptionally quickly," possibly within October.

XRP and SOL ETFs are viewed as having high approval probabilities, due to reduced regulatory hurdles and active filing amendments by institutions, respectively. LTC, with its market stability and compliance advantages, ADA, pushed actively by Grayscale, and DOGE, as the first potential Meme ETF, all stand a chance in the initial approval wave.

The ETF decisions in October will be a critical turning point for the crypto market, influencing the scale and speed of institutional capital inflow and the prices of the underlying cryptocurrencies.

---

Summary

Among the many catalysts in this crypto bull market, ETFs—particularly spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—have played a key role as a "bridge for capital," significantly lowering the barrier to entry. Since the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, the industry has attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in institutional inflows, pushing Bitcoin's price from $60,000 to the current ~$113,500.

Currently, the U.S. SEC has 92 spot crypto ETFs (including single-asset and index-type) awaiting review. Single-asset ETFs account for about 69 of these, covering 24 different cryptocurrencies. Applications from institutions like Grayscale and VanEck mostly have final decision deadlines set for October.

Against this backdrop, the SEC recently approved a proposal, fundamentally changing how spot crypto ETFs are listed. Therefore, the approval situation in October will not only be a turning point for the crypto ETF wave but also reflect the future direction of this bull market.

SEC Approves Rule Change: From "Case-by-Case" to "Standard Clearance"

On September 7th, the U.S. SEC approved rule changes proposed by three major exchanges (Nasdaq, Cboe BZX, and NYSE Arca), introducing a universal listing standard for "Commodity-Based Trust Shares." This standard primarily targets exchange-traded products (ETPs) holding physical commodities (including digital assets), aiming to streamline the listing process by replacing the cumbersome case-by-case review.

The SEC Chair stated these changes mark a shift from "cautious, case-by-case" to "standardized and efficient" regulation of digital asset ETPs, aiming to "maximize investor choice and foster innovation."

The core of the new regulation outlines three listing paths:

1. The commodity trades on a market that is a member of the Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG) and has a market surveillance sharing agreement.

2. Futures on the commodity have been listed on a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) for at least six months and have a surveillance sharing agreement.

3. If an existing ETF is listed on a U.S. national securities exchange and has at least 40% of its assets allocated to the commodity, a new ETP may be exempt from certain requirements.

In short, the new rules create a "fast track" for crypto ETFs meeting specific conditions. Based on these paths, October could see an "outbreak" of the first new ETF listings, focusing on assets with CFTC-regulated futures existing for over six months.

Original Decision Dates "Moot," Issuers "Back to the Starting Line"

The生效 of the new standards directly impacted the queued ETF applications. On September 29th, the SEC requested issuers for LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE spot ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings. Issuers must now proceed under the new standards. This withdrawal does not mean the ETF applications are denied but rather shifts them to a more efficient regulatory path.

Critically, after withdrawing the 19b-4 filings, their original decision dates are likely no longer relevant. Under the new rules, the SEC can conduct rapid assessments based on the universal standard without strict deadlines.

Regarding the exact timing of approvals, while issuers need to re-submit or adjust applications according to the new rules—potentially involving extra administrative work and brief delays—most observers remain optimistic, believing approvals could be "exceptionally rapid," similar to the few weeks it took for ETH ETF approvals after withdrawal, meaning potential approval in October.

Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett analyzed that "as long as the token meets the existing criteria, the SEC can approve a cryptocurrency ETF at any time once the S-1 filing is submitted. So, even with individual ETF deadlines looming, the SEC could theoretically decide on any or all of them at any time."

However, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart cautioned, "Everything is uncertain. Add in the potential for a government shutdown, and things could get very unstable."

While it's unclear how quickly the SEC will process S-1 filings, eliminating the predictive power of the original decision dates, this change optimizes the process and reduces delays for future crypto ETFs entering the market.

Which of the Five Major Candidates Will Lead the ETF Race?

Although the previously queued ETF applications are back at the "starting line," the SEC's withdrawal requests currently only involve LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE, suggesting the first approved ETFs will likely come from this group (or all might be approved).

1. XRP ETFs: A focal point for October. Seven XRP ETF applications exist. XRP futures have been on CME for over a year, meeting the new rules. Bloomberg analysts previously raised the approval probability to 95%, citing increased SEC engagement as a "clear green light." A key advantage is its perceived status as a commodity by regulators, significantly reducing hurdles.

2. SOL ETFs: Highly watched, with seven major institutions involved. Recently, issuers submitted updated S-1 forms detailing staking operations. Post-withdrawal request, Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas raised the SOL ETF approval odds from 95% to 100%, noting the universal standard makes the 19b-4 form meaningless, leaving only S-1 matters. Notably, BlackRock has not filed for a Solana ETF, possibly reflecting caution about its regulatory risk.

3. LTC ETFs: As one of the longest-running cryptocurrencies, LTC boasts high security and decentralization. Three LTC ETF applications exist. Its longstanding market stability, strong compliance, and technical similarity to Bitcoin give it a high probability of being in the first batch. LTC hasn't been labeled a security like XRP or SOL, aligning more closely with Bitcoin's commodity attributes.

4. Cardano (ADA) ETF: Grayscale plans to convert its Cardano Trust to an ETF. Known for its academic foundation and sustainability, its approval would be the first non-ETH PoS platform product. Grayscale's GDLC fund, which includes ADA, was already approved in July, boosting the ADA ETF's prospects.

5. DOGE ETFs: Three applications exist. Approval would make it the first Meme ETF.

Conclusion

The critical window in October will be a significant turning point in crypto ETF history, regardless of the final outcome. It will not only affect the prices of related cryptocurrencies but also determine the scale and speed of institutional capital flowing into crypto. The market is maturing, and October's ETF decisions could be a key step in its further mainstream acceptance.