Bitcoin has pulled back from its new high of $111,800 after long-term holders began to cash out. Key support levels are at $103,700 and $95,600, with signs of selling pressure from long-term investors. Bulls are currently facing a tough test.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin reached a historic high of $111,800 but quickly dropped to $103,200. The initial rally was driven by spot markets, with key accumulation zones at $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000, which now serve as potential support levels.

• From a broader perspective, the CBD heatmap shows that many historical accumulation zones have turned into selling zones. Sellers from the $25,000 to $31,000, $38,000 to $44,000, and $60,000 to $73,000 ranges are exerting pressure on the price trend.

• Cost basis quantiles and short-term holder intervals indicate that near-term support is around $103,700 and $95,600, with resistance at $114,800. These levels are important statistical indicators of a broader market sentiment shift.

• Realized profits have surged to $1.47 billion per day, marking the fifth major profit-taking event in this cycle. The selling is dominated by long-term holders rather than short-term traders.

• The dominant selling by holders with positions over 1 year reflects a mature capital rotation. This aligns with previous observations from the CBD heatmap, confirming that seasoned investors are shaping the current top formation phase.

Price Ladder Chart

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin continued its upward trend, reaching a new high of $111,800 and briefly surpassing the highs set in January 2025. However, the subsequent pullback to $103,200 suggests a potential pause in the bullish momentum.

To understand the underlying structure of this rally, the CBD heatmap (PANews note: CBD heatmap visualizes Cumulative Volume Delta data) can be used. It tracks the net difference between aggressive buying and selling at different price levels. Visually, it reveals concentrated accumulation or selling zones driven by spot markets, helping to identify the price ranges with the strongest demand.

The heatmap shows that the rally was primarily driven by spot markets and climbed in a stepwise manner, with clear accumulation zones at $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000. These zones may now act as dense supply areas and could provide short-term support under the influence of overall market sentiment.

Notably, top buyers from the first quarter of this year, who held after the price fell below $80,000, are now being tested again as the price hovers around $110,000. This article will explore the waning momentum behind recent demand, factors weakening market strength, and potential support levels if the market continues to weaken.

Source: Glassnode

Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure

To understand the driving force behind Bitcoin's recent breakthrough above $111,000, a broader market structure perspective is necessary. By examining the heatmap since the June 2022 cycle bottom, the distribution pattern of past accumulated positions begins to emerge clearly.

As prices continue to climb, supply-dense zones that previously served as accumulation bases (characterized by sideways consolidation) have now transformed into active selling zones. Visually, the heatmap shows a progressive shift; areas that once supported the upward movement have turned into resistance levels as early holders take the opportunity to sell.

The most significant selling pressure comes from groups that accumulated positions in key historical ranges ($25,000 to $31,000 and $60,000 to $73,000). Many in these groups have experienced multiple volatility phases and are now exacerbating supply overhangs, seemingly limiting Bitcoin's further upside at least in the short term.

Source: Glassnode

Price Discovery Exploration

With long-term holders gradually exerting selling pressure, the likelihood of a short-term pullback continues to increase, especially in the absence of a strong catalyst to push Bitcoin decisively above $111,800. During this pause in bullish momentum, on-chain pricing models become important tools for identifying potential support levels during the pullback.

One particularly effective framework is the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) quantiles. This metric analyzes the cost basis of tokens at specific times, dividing them into 100 percentiles. It provides a high-resolution view of when supply initially entered the market, enabling the identification of areas with high turnover rates, which may be driven by profit-taking or loss realization.

Here, three key quantiles are focused on:

• 🔴 0.95 (top 5%)

• 0.85 (top 15%)

• 0.75 (top 25%)

Historical patterns over the past five years show that when prices are above the 0.95 quantile, there is often absolute euphoric sentiment, while range-bound bull market phases typically occur between 0.85 and 0.95. On the other hand, sustained levels below 0.75 usually mark bear markets or risk-off periods.

Currently, the 0.95 quantile is at approximately $103,700, the first on-chain support level. If selling pressure persists, the next level to watch is the 0.85 quantile at $95,600, which may provide structural support or, if breached, confirm a broader risk reset.

Source: Glassnode

Profit Realization

As Bitcoin pulls back from its recent high of $111,800, most of the selling pressure appears to come from seasoned holders within the cycle, those who accumulated Bitcoin early in the rally and are now realizing substantial gains. At this stage, the profit realization mechanism is a key factor in assessing the risk of demand exhaustion.

By calculating the 7-day simple moving average of daily realized profits (adjusted to exclude internal entity flows), last week saw a peak of $1.47 billion in daily realized profits. This is a significant level, highlighting the intensity of recent capital rotation.

More importantly, this marks the fifth time in this cycle that daily profit-taking has exceeded $1 billion. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially when new demand cannot absorb realized gains of this magnitude. This highlights the market's resilience in the face of significant selling pressure.

Source: Glassnode

Dynamic Shifts

To better understand the significance of the current wave of profit-taking, it is necessary to examine it from a cyclical perspective. Not all profit-taking events are the same, and the dynamic nature of these mechanisms can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behavior over time.

An effective approach is to examine the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of realized net profits adjusted for market capitalization. This adjustment allows for comparison across different cycles. A clear trend is that the enthusiasm for profit-taking has waned over time, reflecting the general degradation of cyclical upside performance and reduced volatility as the market matures.

• From November 2015 to April 2018, the net profit-taking phase lasted about 25 months, with peaks exceeding 0.4% of market capitalization.

• In the 2020 to 2022 cycle, this area lasted about 20 months, but the peak was only around 0.15%.

• In the current cycle, starting in November 2023, the net profit-taking phase has lasted 18 months, forming two distinct peaks close to 0.1%.

This trend indicates that while profit-taking still exerts significant pressure, it has become more subdued, possibly signaling a shift from the boom-and-bust fervor to structural capital rotation within a more mature asset class.

Source: Glassnode

Who Is Taking Profits?

Another perspective on assessing profit-taking cycles is to identify which investor groups are selling.

Since the 2015 to 2018 cycle, the share of realized profits by long-term holders (LTHs) has steadily increased at market tops. This trend highlights a structural shift in market maturity, with more experienced investors dominating capital rotation rather than short-term speculators.

During the recent peak period, the 30-day moving average of realized profits for long-term holders (LTHs) soared to approximately $1 billion per day, while short-term holders (STHs

Bitcoin has pulled back from its new high of $111,800 after long-term holders began to cash out. Key support levels are at $103,700 and $95,600, with signs of selling pressure from long-term investors. Bulls are currently facing a tough test.

Key Points:

• Bitcoin reached a historic high of $111,800 but quickly dropped to $103,200. The initial rally was driven by spot markets, with key accumulation zones at $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000, which now serve as potential support levels.

• From a broader perspective, the CBD heatmap shows that many historical accumulation zones have turned into selling zones. Sellers from the $25,000 to $31,000, $38,000 to $44,000, and $60,000 to $73,000 ranges are exerting pressure on the price trend.

• Cost basis quantiles and short-term holder intervals indicate that near-term support is around $103,700 and $95,600, with resistance at $114,800. These levels are important statistical indicators of a broader market sentiment shift.

• Realized profits have surged to $1.47 billion per day, marking the fifth major profit-taking event in this cycle. The selling is dominated by long-term holders rather than short-term traders.

• The dominant selling by holders with positions over 1 year reflects a mature capital rotation. This aligns with previous observations from the CBD heatmap, confirming that seasoned investors are shaping the current top formation phase.

Price Ladder Chart

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin continued its upward trend, reaching a new high of $111,800 and briefly surpassing the highs set in January 2025. However, the subsequent pullback to $103,200 suggests a potential pause in the bullish momentum.

To understand the underlying structure of this rally, the CBD heatmap (PANews note: CBD heatmap visualizes Cumulative Volume Delta data) can be used. It tracks the net difference between aggressive buying and selling at different price levels. Visually, it reveals concentrated accumulation or selling zones driven by spot markets, helping to identify the price ranges with the strongest demand.

The heatmap shows that the rally was primarily driven by spot markets and climbed in a stepwise manner, with clear accumulation zones at $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000. These zones may now act as dense supply areas and could provide short-term support under the influence of overall market sentiment.

Notably, top buyers from the first quarter of this year, who held after the price fell below $80,000, are now being tested again as the price hovers around $110,000. This article will explore the waning momentum behind recent demand, factors weakening market strength, and potential support levels if the market continues to weaken.

Source: Glassnode

Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure

To understand the driving force behind Bitcoin's recent breakthrough above $111,000, a broader market structure perspective is necessary. By examining the heatmap since the June 2022 cycle bottom, the distribution pattern of past accumulated positions begins to emerge clearly.

As prices continue to climb, supply-dense zones that previously served as accumulation bases (characterized by sideways consolidation) have now transformed into active selling zones. Visually, the heatmap shows a progressive shift; areas that once supported the upward movement have turned into resistance levels as early holders take the opportunity to sell.

The most significant selling pressure comes from groups that accumulated positions in key historical ranges ($25,000 to $31,000 and $60,000 to $73,000). Many in these groups have experienced multiple volatility phases and are now exacerbating supply overhangs, seemingly limiting Bitcoin's further upside at least in the short term.

Source: Glassnode

Price Discovery Exploration

With long-term holders gradually exerting selling pressure, the likelihood of a short-term pullback continues to increase, especially in the absence of a strong catalyst to push Bitcoin decisively above $111,800. During this pause in bullish momentum, on-chain pricing models become important tools for identifying potential support levels during the pullback.

One particularly effective framework is the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) quantiles. This metric analyzes the cost basis of tokens at specific times, dividing them into 100 percentiles. It provides a high-resolution view of when supply initially entered the market, enabling the identification of areas with high turnover rates, which may be driven by profit-taking or loss realization.

Here, three key quantiles are focused on:

• 🔴 0.95 (top 5%)

• 0.85 (top 15%)

• 0.75 (top 25%)

Historical patterns over the past five years show that when prices are above the 0.95 quantile, there is often absolute euphoric sentiment, while range-bound bull market phases typically occur between 0.85 and 0.95. On the other hand, sustained levels below 0.75 usually mark bear markets or risk-off periods.

Currently, the 0.95 quantile is at approximately $103,700, the first on-chain support level. If selling pressure persists, the next level to watch is the 0.85 quantile at $95,600, which may provide structural support or, if breached, confirm a broader risk reset.

Source: Glassnode

Profit Realization

As Bitcoin pulls back from its recent high of $111,800, most of the selling pressure appears to come from seasoned holders within the cycle, those who accumulated Bitcoin early in the rally and are now realizing substantial gains. At this stage, the profit realization mechanism is a key factor in assessing the risk of demand exhaustion.

By calculating the 7-day simple moving average of daily realized profits (adjusted to exclude internal entity flows), last week saw a peak of $1.47 billion in daily realized profits. This is a significant level, highlighting the intensity of recent capital rotation.

More importantly, this marks the fifth time in this cycle that daily profit-taking has exceeded $1 billion. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially when new demand cannot absorb realized gains of this magnitude. This highlights the market's resilience in the face of significant selling pressure.

Source: Glassnode

Dynamic Shifts

To better understand the significance of the current wave of profit-taking, it is necessary to examine it from a cyclical perspective. Not all profit-taking events are the same, and the dynamic nature of these mechanisms can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behavior over time.

An effective approach is to examine the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of realized net profits adjusted for market capitalization. This adjustment allows for comparison across different cycles. A clear trend is that the enthusiasm for profit-taking has waned over time, reflecting the general degradation of cyclical upside performance and reduced volatility as the market matures.

• From November 2015 to April 2018, the net profit-taking phase lasted about 25 months, with peaks exceeding 0.4% of market capitalization.

• In the 2020 to 2022 cycle, this area lasted about 20 months, but the peak was only around 0.15%.

• In the current cycle, starting in November 2023, the net profit-taking phase has lasted 18 months, forming two distinct peaks close to 0.1%.

This trend indicates that while profit-taking still exerts significant pressure, it has become more subdued, possibly signaling a shift from the boom-and-bust fervor to structural capital rotation within a more mature asset class.

Source: Glassnode

Who Is Taking Profits?

Another perspective on assessing profit-taking cycles is to identify which investor groups are selling.

Since the 2015 to 2018 cycle, the share of realized profits by long-term holders (LTHs) has steadily increased at market tops. This trend highlights a structural shift in market maturity, with more experienced investors dominating capital rotation rather than short-term speculators.

During the recent peak period, the 30-day moving average of realized profits for long-term holders (LTHs) soared to approximately $1 billion per day, while short-term holders (STHs