Cycle Start and Timeline

The current BTC bull market started from the low of $15,460 in November 2022. As of September 2025, it has lasted approximately 1,044 days, nearing the historical cycle peak duration of around 1,060 days. Based on the traditional "cycle theory," the peak could occur in October 2025.

Structural Market Shift

A historic shift in BTC ownership is underway. Early holders are continuously selling, while traditional capital from BTC spot ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts companies has become the primary buyer, driving BTC's transition from an alternative asset to a mainstream one.

Bull Market Drivers

* Phase 1 (Nov 2022 – Sep 2023): Long-term Holder Accumulation & Macro Liquidity. Prices rebounded over 100% from the low, driven by accumulation and improving macro liquidity.

* Phase 2 (Oct 2023 – Mar 2024): BTC Spot ETF & Halving Narrative. Anticipation of ETF approval and the halving narrative attracted massive capital, driving a 173% price increase.

* Phase 3 (Apr 2024 – Sep 2024): Post-Halving Rebalancing. The market entered a consolidation phase after the halving. Long-term holder accumulation stabilized the bottom.

* Phase 4 (Oct 2024 – Jan 2025): Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies & Rate Cut Expectations. Pro-crypto policies and rate cut expectations triggered record capital inflows, leading to a further 72% price surge.

* Phase 5 (Feb 2025 – Apr 2025): Black Swan Events. Events like trade wars and paused rate cuts caused a correction, but the decline did not exceed typical bull market thresholds.

* Phase 6 (May 2025 – Present): The Third Major Sell-Off & Strong Demand. Long-term holders initiated a third large-scale sell-off, but robust demand from ETFs and DATs absorbed the selling pressure, pushing prices to new highs.

Challenging the Cycle Theory

Traditional peak signals, like a surge in new addresses, have not materialized. BTC may have entered a new cycle, potentially altering the nature, timing, and subsequent bear market magnitude of the peak.

Future Outlook

Whether the bull market peaks in October remains uncertain. If long-term holders continue selling, the bull market could end. However, if strong buying pressure persists due to rate cuts and supportive policies, the cycle might extend, and any subsequent bear market correction could be shallower.

Summary

---

Author: 0xWeilan

According to Coinbase data, BTC hit its 4-year low of $15,460 on November 21, 2022. We consider this date the end of the last cycle and the start of the current one.

As of September 30 this year, BTC has run for 1,044 tumultuous days, nearing the peak timing of the previous two cycles. A simplistic calculation suggests BTC could reach its cycle peak in October 2025.

The "Cycle Law" Under Scrutiny

This "cycle law" stems from consensus diffusion and speculative fervor around halvings. It remains a key metric for traditional large BTC holders, whose profit-taking historically played a decisive role in forming cycle tops by draining liquidity.

Currently, this group is accelerating sales, suggesting an impending "peak." However, other top indicators like rapid price surges or spikes in new addresses are absent. This raises the question: will this "cycle law" continue to dictate the market, or has it been broken? Will the BTC bull market that started in November 2022 end in October?

This EMC Labs report utilizes our proprietary "BTC Cycle Multi-Factor Analysis Model" to comprehensively analyze the price action in this cycle, identify the market forces and underlying logic driving it, and ultimately provide our analysis and judgment on whether BTC will peak in October.

Phase 1 (Nov 2022 – Sep 2023): Long-Term Holder Accumulation

Looking back, the bankruptcy of key buyers from the last cycle, like FTX and Voyager Digital, signaled the completion of that cycle's purge. Post-FTX collapse, BTC fell from around $20,000 in the bottom range to $15,476, with the low on November 21, 2022.

While these bankruptcies exacerbated the bottom, the fundamental force ending the cycle was the profit-taking sell-off by long-term holders. Typically, short-term holders buy fervently and long-term holders sell during market manias, while the opposite occurs during cool-downs.

Consistent with past cycles, long-term holders began accumulating during the bear market. As the bottom phase arrived, selling pressure from loss-making short-term holders diminished, allowing the buying power of long-term holders to become the upward force pushing BTC and the crypto market out of the bottom and into a new cycle.

Concurrently, the post-pandemic Fed rate hike cycle was nearing its end, officially concluding on July 26, 2023. Due to forward-looking trading, the Nasdaq Composite Index bottomed in October 2022 and exited its bottom range by January 2023. BTC's price action was largely synchronized, bottoming about 9-10 months before the final rate hike ended.

As the hiking cycle neared its end, tight liquidity conditions led to regional bank failures, prompting the US government to inject emergency liquidity. The US M2 money supply and DXY index began rebounding, providing a favorable external environment for US stocks and BTC to recover.

We define "Nov 2022 – Sep 2023" as the first phase of this cycle. The internal market structure, specifically the accumulation by long-term holders, coupled with improving macro liquidity, was the fundamental driver of BTC's price increase.

DATs companies and BTC Spot ETFs, later major forces, were not dominant yet. The retail crowd, prone to chasing rallies, remained dormant. Stablecoin supply was contracting, indicating capital outflows. The cyclical accumulation by long-term holders was the primary upward force.

In Phase 1, BTC rallied from a low of $15,476 to a high of $31,862, a maximum gain of 105.88%.

Phase 2 (Oct 2023 – Mar 2024): The BTC Spot ETF Catalyst

With US inflation falling and a brief CPI uptick in mid-2023 proving transient, July was confirmed as the end of the Fed's hiking cycle. Changing market expectations favored risk assets, setting the stage for Phase 2.

The true catalysts for Phase 2 were the anticipation of BTC Spot ETF approvals and the fourth BTC halving expected in April 2024.

Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Fidelity filed for Spot BTC ETFs in June 2023, attracting speculative capital.

Using the January 10, 2024, ETF approval as a midpoint, Phase 2 is split. The first half was dominated by speculative capital betting on approval. The second half was driven by incremental capital entering via the approved ETFs.

Additionally, the stablecoin channel reversed its outflow trend in October 2023, turning to inflows. By end-March 2024, over $26 billion in new stablecoins had been issued, becoming a key driver, especially in the first half.

Starting October 2023, long-term holders began distributing their holdings, selling a total of 900,000 BTC by the end of this phase.

This phase was driven by a combination of ETF-related capital, on-chain speculative/investment capital, and distribution by long-term holders. Buying pressure outweighed selling, leading to a sharp price increase.

In Phase 2, BTC rose from a low of $26,955 to a high of $73,836, a maximum gain of 173.92%.

Phase 3 (Apr 2024 – Sep 2024): Post-Halving Rebalancing

As noted earlier, investment/speculation around the halving narrative was a significant factor. This became evident in Phase 3.

BTC completed its fourth halving on April 19, 2024. While its direct impact on supply had diminished, the speculative run-up had overextended prices. From April to September 2024, BTC entered a 7-month consolidation period.

Post-March peak, capital inflow via ETFs slowed but remained decent. However, the stablecoin channel contracted more significantly, even turning negative at times.

Despite the paused rate hikes, the lack of cuts, reduced ETF inflows, and capital exit around the halving led to an overextended market seeking a new equilibrium.

The market stabilized without falling into a bear market due to long-term holders. They halted distributions in April and resumed accumulation by July, defining the bottom range.

In Phase 3, the highest price was $109,588, the lowest was $74,508, with a maximum drawdown of 32.01%, within typical bull market correction thresholds.

Phase 4 (Oct 2024 – Jan 2025): Trump's Pro-Crypto Agenda

High-interest rates finally impacted the job market, prompting the Fed to initiate rate cuts in September 2024, cutting 75 bps by year-end. This boosted risk appetite, driving massive capital into crypto via ETFs and stablecoins.

Another catalyst was the US Presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump pivoted to a strongly pro-crypto stance. Upon taking office, he signed executive orders supporting digital assets, established working groups, proposed a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve," promoted stablecoin regulation, and appointed pro-crypto officials, unprecedented support for the industry.

Driven by the election and rate cuts, record capital flooded into the market via ETFs and stablecoins. Concurrently, long-term holders resumed selling to lock in profits.

Spurred by US policies, crypto became more mainstream. Dozens of DATs companies joined the fray, accumulating BTC alongside ETFs. These two groups became the largest buyers in the BTC market.

A great reshuffling began. Massive amounts of BTC moved from early holders to ETF and DATs custody accounts. BTC holdings on centralized exchanges frequented by early crypto users declined sharply.

This phase was powered by speculative inflows driven by rate cut expectations and Trump's pro-crypto policies.

In Phase 4, BTC price rose from a low of $63,301 to a high of $109,358, a maximum gain of 72.76%.

Phase 5 (Feb 2025 – Apr 2025): Black Swan Events

In our framework, Phase 5 was a mid-cycle adjustment caused by external black swan events and a cooldown from speculative fervor. The pause in rate cuts and the announcement of steep tariffs created market turmoil, forming this distinct phase.

Markets had priced in sustained rate cuts. When the Fed paused in January 2025 and reaffirmed its inflation focus, markets at all-time highs became vulnerable. Trump's announcement of higher-than-expected tariff rates triggered a sharp decline.

The Nasdaq corrected nearly 17%, while BTC saw a maximum drawdown of 32%. While larger, BTC's drop remained within its bull market correction threshold.

Eventually, as fears about the trade war and a hard landing subsided, both US stocks and crypto staged a V-shaped recovery by April, reaching new highs by July.

This reversal was fueled by aggressive buying from DATs, ETFs, and stablecoin channels. Long-term holders also resumed accumulation after the drop, again acting as market stabilizers.

In Phase 5, the highest price was $73,777, the lowest was $49,000, with a maximum drawdown of 33.58%, within bull market correction parameters.

Phase 6 (May 2025 – Present): Old Cycle vs. New Cycle

The market decline from black swan events was gradually reversed by bargain-hunting and long-term holder accumulation, with BTC hitting a new ATH of $123,000 by July.

At this point, long-term holders initiated their third major distribution wave of this cycle, which continues today. The selling is being absorbed by DATs and ETF inflows.

Ahead of the September rate cut, forward-looking trading dominated. Inflows from July to September were strong but decelerating, leading to a minor correction post-rate cut. Long-term holder selling remains a key market influence.

During this cycle, accompanying the third price surge, long-term holders are conducting their third major distribution. On-chain data shows they have realized profits on over 3.5 million BTC this cycle, reaching levels typical of past cycle tops. They continue significant selling.

In past halving-driven cycles, halving events and long-term holder accumulation/distribution were decisive. Speculative fervor driving new user adoption was necessary for cycle tops, often indicated by a surge in new Bitcoin addresses.

However, as BTC's consensus broadened, the scale of new address creation has plateaued. Since 2024, new BTC addresses have fallen to levels seen in past bear markets. This isn't solely due to fewer participants; the launch of US Spot ETFs in January 2024 allowed many investors to participate without creating personal wallets, reducing address creation.

Observing Ethereum, the largest smart contract platform, shows a similar trend in new addresses, suggesting a broader market structure shift for crypto.

This suggests the BTC market structure has undergone a dramatic change. Simply predicting market tops based on past cycle theory or mindlessly buying tokens for high returns may be outdated.

BTC might have exited the old cycle and entered a new one, potentially fundamentally altering its peak formation, timing, and subsequent bear market depth.

Conclusion

Based on this review, we draw a preliminary conclusion: the primary drivers of this bull market have been industrial policy support and incremental capital from traditional channels. The halving and industry innovations have not, as in the past, triggered massive capital inflows leading to a broad-based "altcoin season."

While innovations occurred, they attracted limited, pulse-like capital compared to past frenzies.

Consequently, since the new cycle began in November 2022, most crypto assets have seen only pulse-like, temporary price increases.

BTC is transitioning from the old cycle to a new one. Capital from DATs and ETFs is attempting to reshape the cycle's logic based on their own drivers. However, long-term holders still hold over 15 million BTC and continue acting based on the old cycle logic.

Factors supporting a non-peak or new cycle include the strong fundraising and holding strategy of DATs, ongoing US pro-crypto policies, and the renewed rate cut cycle favoring high-risk assets.

The battle continues: will long-term holder selling drain liquidity and form a classic cycle top, or will robust buying pressure in a rate-cutting environment bury the selling, allowing BTC to follow stocks into a prolonged new bull cycle?

We lean towards a potentially extended cycle, with an October peak remaining a low-probability event. However, if long-term holders persist in selling, the bull market ending this year is a higher probability. Any subsequent bear market's duration and depth could be significantly reduced, depending on the new buyers' behavior.

Cycle Start and Timeline

The current BTC bull market started from the low of $15,460 in November 2022. As of September 2025, it has lasted approximately 1,044 days, nearing the historical cycle peak duration of around 1,060 days. Based on the traditional "cycle theory," the peak could occur in October 2025.

Structural Market Shift

A historic shift in BTC ownership is underway. Early holders are continuously selling, while traditional capital from BTC spot ETFs and Digital Asset Trusts companies has become the primary buyer, driving BTC's transition from an alternative asset to a mainstream one.

Bull Market Drivers

* Phase 1 (Nov 2022 – Sep 2023): Long-term Holder Accumulation & Macro Liquidity. Prices rebounded over 100% from the low, driven by accumulation and improving macro liquidity.

* Phase 2 (Oct 2023 – Mar 2024): BTC Spot ETF & Halving Narrative. Anticipation of ETF approval and the halving narrative attracted massive capital, driving a 173% price increase.

* Phase 3 (Apr 2024 – Sep 2024): Post-Halving Rebalancing. The market entered a consolidation phase after the halving. Long-term holder accumulation stabilized the bottom.

* Phase 4 (Oct 2024 – Jan 2025): Trump's Pro-Crypto Policies & Rate Cut Expectations. Pro-crypto policies and rate cut expectations triggered record capital inflows, leading to a further 72% price surge.

* Phase 5 (Feb 2025 – Apr 2025): Black Swan Events. Events like trade wars and paused rate cuts caused a correction, but the decline did not exceed typical bull market thresholds.

* Phase 6 (May 2025 – Present): The Third Major Sell-Off & Strong Demand. Long-term holders initiated a third large-scale sell-off, but robust demand from ETFs and DATs absorbed the selling pressure, pushing prices to new highs.

Challenging the Cycle Theory

Traditional peak signals, like a surge in new addresses, have not materialized. BTC may have entered a new cycle, potentially altering the nature, timing, and subsequent bear market magnitude of the peak.

Future Outlook

Whether the bull market peaks in October remains uncertain. If long-term holders continue selling, the bull market could end. However, if strong buying pressure persists due to rate cuts and supportive policies, the cycle might extend, and any subsequent bear market correction could be shallower.

Summary

---

Author: 0xWeilan

According to Coinbase data, BTC hit its 4-year low of $15,460 on November 21, 2022. We consider this date the end of the last cycle and the start of the current one.

As of September 30 this year, BTC has run for 1,044 tumultuous days, nearing the peak timing of the previous two cycles. A simplistic calculation suggests BTC could reach its cycle peak in October 2025.

The "Cycle Law" Under Scrutiny

This "cycle law" stems from consensus diffusion and speculative fervor around halvings. It remains a key metric for traditional large BTC holders, whose profit-taking historically played a decisive role in forming cycle tops by draining liquidity.

Currently, this group is accelerating sales, suggesting an impending "peak." However, other top indicators like rapid price surges or spikes in new addresses are absent. This raises the question: will this "cycle law" continue to dictate the market, or has it been broken? Will the BTC bull market that started in November 2022 end in October?

This EMC Labs report utilizes our proprietary "BTC Cycle Multi-Factor Analysis Model" to comprehensively analyze the price action in this cycle, identify the market forces and underlying logic driving it, and ultimately provide our analysis and judgment on whether BTC will peak in October.

Phase 1 (Nov 2022 – Sep 2023): Long-Term Holder Accumulation

Looking back, the bankruptcy of key buyers from the last cycle, like FTX and Voyager Digital, signaled the completion of that cycle's purge. Post-FTX collapse, BTC fell from around $20,000 in the bottom range to $15,476, with the low on November 21, 2022.

While these bankruptcies exacerbated the bottom, the fundamental force ending the cycle was the profit-taking sell-off by long-term holders. Typically, short-term holders buy fervently and long-term holders sell during market manias, while the opposite occurs during cool-downs.

Consistent with past cycles, long-term holders began accumulating during the bear market. As the bottom phase arrived, selling pressure from loss-making short-term holders diminished, allowing the buying power of long-term holders to become the upward force pushing BTC and the crypto market out of the bottom and into a new cycle.

Concurrently, the post-pandemic Fed rate hike cycle was nearing its end, officially concluding on July 26, 2023. Due to forward-looking trading, the Nasdaq Composite Index bottomed in October 2022 and exited its bottom range by January 2023. BTC's price action was largely synchronized, bottoming about 9-10 months before the final rate hike ended.

As the hiking cycle neared its end, tight liquidity conditions led to regional bank failures, prompting the US government to inject emergency liquidity. The US M2 money supply and DXY index began rebounding, providing a favorable external environment for US stocks and BTC to recover.

We define "Nov 2022 – Sep 2023" as the first phase of this cycle. The internal market structure, specifically the accumulation by long-term holders, coupled with improving macro liquidity, was the fundamental driver of BTC's price increase.

DATs companies and BTC Spot ETFs, later major forces, were not dominant yet. The retail crowd, prone to chasing rallies, remained dormant. Stablecoin supply was contracting, indicating capital outflows. The cyclical accumulation by long-term holders was the primary upward force.

In Phase 1, BTC rallied from a low of $15,476 to a high of $31,862, a maximum gain of 105.88%.

Phase 2 (Oct 2023 – Mar 2024): The BTC Spot ETF Catalyst

With US inflation falling and a brief CPI uptick in mid-2023 proving transient, July was confirmed as the end of the Fed's hiking cycle. Changing market expectations favored risk assets, setting the stage for Phase 2.

The true catalysts for Phase 2 were the anticipation of BTC Spot ETF approvals and the fourth BTC halving expected in April 2024.

Wall Street giants like BlackRock and Fidelity filed for Spot BTC ETFs in June 2023, attracting speculative capital.

Using the January 10, 2024, ETF approval as a midpoint, Phase 2 is split. The first half was dominated by speculative capital betting on approval. The second half was driven by incremental capital entering via the approved ETFs.

Additionally, the stablecoin channel reversed its outflow trend in October 2023, turning to inflows. By end-March 2024, over $26 billion in new stablecoins had been issued, becoming a key driver, especially in the first half.

Starting October 2023, long-term holders began distributing their holdings, selling a total of 900,000 BTC by the end of this phase.

This phase was driven by a combination of ETF-related capital, on-chain speculative/investment capital, and distribution by long-term holders. Buying pressure outweighed selling, leading to a sharp price increase.

In Phase 2, BTC rose from a low of $26,955 to a high of $73,836, a maximum gain of 173.92%.

Phase 3 (Apr 2024 – Sep 2024): Post-Halving Rebalancing

As noted earlier, investment/speculation around the halving narrative was a significant factor. This became evident in Phase 3.

BTC completed its fourth halving on April 19, 2024. While its direct impact on supply had diminished, the speculative run-up had overextended prices. From April to September 2024, BTC entered a 7-month consolidation period.

Post-March peak, capital inflow via ETFs slowed but remained decent. However, the stablecoin channel contracted more significantly, even turning negative at times.

Despite the paused rate hikes, the lack of cuts, reduced ETF inflows, and capital exit around the halving led to an overextended market seeking a new equilibrium.

The market stabilized without falling into a bear market due to long-term holders. They halted distributions in April and resumed accumulation by July, defining the bottom range.

In Phase 3, the highest price was $109,588, the lowest was $74,508, with a maximum drawdown of 32.01%, within typical bull market correction thresholds.

Phase 4 (Oct 2024 – Jan 2025): Trump's Pro-Crypto Agenda

High-interest rates finally impacted the job market, prompting the Fed to initiate rate cuts in September 2024, cutting 75 bps by year-end. This boosted risk appetite, driving massive capital into crypto via ETFs and stablecoins.

Another catalyst was the US Presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump pivoted to a strongly pro-crypto stance. Upon taking office, he signed executive orders supporting digital assets, established working groups, proposed a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve," promoted stablecoin regulation, and appointed pro-crypto officials, unprecedented support for the industry.

Driven by the election and rate cuts, record capital flooded into the market via ETFs and stablecoins. Concurrently, long-term holders resumed selling to lock in profits.

Spurred by US policies, crypto became more mainstream. Dozens of DATs companies joined the fray, accumulating BTC alongside ETFs. These two groups became the largest buyers in the BTC market.

A great reshuffling began. Massive amounts of BTC moved from early holders to ETF and DATs custody accounts. BTC holdings on centralized exchanges frequented by early crypto users declined sharply.

This phase was powered by speculative inflows driven by rate cut expectations and Trump's pro-crypto policies.

In Phase 4, BTC price rose from a low of $63,301 to a high of $109,358, a maximum gain of 72.76%.

Phase 5 (Feb 2025 – Apr 2025): Black Swan Events

In our framework, Phase 5 was a mid-cycle adjustment caused by external black swan events and a cooldown from speculative fervor. The pause in rate cuts and the announcement of steep tariffs created market turmoil, forming this distinct phase.

Markets had priced in sustained rate cuts. When the Fed paused in January 2025 and reaffirmed its inflation focus, markets at all-time highs became vulnerable. Trump's announcement of higher-than-expected tariff rates triggered a sharp decline.

The Nasdaq corrected nearly 17%, while BTC saw a maximum drawdown of 32%. While larger, BTC's drop remained within its bull market correction threshold.

Eventually, as fears about the trade war and a hard landing subsided, both US stocks and crypto staged a V-shaped recovery by April, reaching new highs by July.

This reversal was fueled by aggressive buying from DATs, ETFs, and stablecoin channels. Long-term holders also resumed accumulation after the drop, again acting as market stabilizers.

In Phase 5, the highest price was $73,777, the lowest was $49,000, with a maximum drawdown of 33.58%, within bull market correction parameters.

Phase 6 (May 2025 – Present): Old Cycle vs. New Cycle

The market decline from black swan events was gradually reversed by bargain-hunting and long-term holder accumulation, with BTC hitting a new ATH of $123,000 by July.

At this point, long-term holders initiated their third major distribution wave of this cycle, which continues today. The selling is being absorbed by DATs and ETF inflows.

Ahead of the September rate cut, forward-looking trading dominated. Inflows from July to September were strong but decelerating, leading to a minor correction post-rate cut. Long-term holder selling remains a key market influence.

During this cycle, accompanying the third price surge, long-term holders are conducting their third major distribution. On-chain data shows they have realized profits on over 3.5 million BTC this cycle, reaching levels typical of past cycle tops. They continue significant selling.

In past halving-driven cycles, halving events and long-term holder accumulation/distribution were decisive. Speculative fervor driving new user adoption was necessary for cycle tops, often indicated by a surge in new Bitcoin addresses.

However, as BTC's consensus broadened, the scale of new address creation has plateaued. Since 2024, new BTC addresses have fallen to levels seen in past bear markets. This isn't solely due to fewer participants; the launch of US Spot ETFs in January 2024 allowed many investors to participate without creating personal wallets, reducing address creation.

Observing Ethereum, the largest smart contract platform, shows a similar trend in new addresses, suggesting a broader market structure shift for crypto.

This suggests the BTC market structure has undergone a dramatic change. Simply predicting market tops based on past cycle theory or mindlessly buying tokens for high returns may be outdated.

BTC might have exited the old cycle and entered a new one, potentially fundamentally altering its peak formation, timing, and subsequent bear market depth.

Conclusion

Based on this review, we draw a preliminary conclusion: the primary drivers of this bull market have been industrial policy support and incremental capital from traditional channels. The halving and industry innovations have not, as in the past, triggered massive capital inflows leading to a broad-based "altcoin season."

While innovations occurred, they attracted limited, pulse-like capital compared to past frenzies.

Consequently, since the new cycle began in November 2022, most crypto assets have seen only pulse-like, temporary price increases.

BTC is transitioning from the old cycle to a new one. Capital from DATs and ETFs is attempting to reshape the cycle's logic based on their own drivers. However, long-term holders still hold over 15 million BTC and continue acting based on the old cycle logic.

Factors supporting a non-peak or new cycle include the strong fundraising and holding strategy of DATs, ongoing US pro-crypto policies, and the renewed rate cut cycle favoring high-risk assets.

The battle continues: will long-term holder selling drain liquidity and form a classic cycle top, or will robust buying pressure in a rate-cutting environment bury the selling, allowing BTC to follow stocks into a prolonged new bull cycle?

We lean towards a potentially extended cycle, with an October peak remaining a low-probability event. However, if long-term holders persist in selling, the bull market ending this year is a higher probability. Any subsequent bear market's duration and depth could be significantly reduced, depending on the new buyers' behavior.