Bitcoin’s Price Struggle Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

In April 2025, the price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate within the range of $83,000 to $85,200, failing to break through the key resistance level of $86,000. This price volatility is closely related to the subtle changes in macroeconomic data.

Gold’s $3,357 Spell: The Cryptocurrency Law That Guarantees Bitcoin’s New High Within 5 Months

On April 17, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims was 215,000, lower than the market expectation of 225,000. This indicates that the labor market remains resilient. This data is seen as an important signal of the stability of the U.S. economy but also reduces market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, thereby suppressing short-term speculative sentiment in risky assets.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized in his speech on April 16 that the recent implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in the United States far exceeded expectations and could lead to the dual pressures of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.

At the same time, Trump said at a press conference: "I think he (Powell) is terrible, but I can't complain," and pointed out that the economy was very strong during his first term. Trump continued to complain about Powell, saying that he believes the Fed chairman is "playing politics" and that Powell is "someone I never really liked."

Trump then said: "I think Powell will cut interest rates sooner or later. The only thing Powell is good at is cutting interest rates."

Despite the Federal Reserve's clear statement that it will not intervene in the market or implement interest rate cuts, the European Central Bank has taken the lead in lowering interest rates from 2.50% to 2.25%, the lowest since the end of 2022, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of tariff policies on the economy. This divergence in global monetary policy further increases market uncertainty and prompts investors to reassess the safe-haven attributes of assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin at a Critical "Turning Point"

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a crucial "turning point." Anonymous trader Titan of Crypto pointed out that the BTC price continues to contract within a triangular pattern, with the RSI indicator above 50 and attempting to break through resistance levels, suggesting an imminent directional breakout. Order flow analyst Magus believes that if Bitcoin fails to break through $85,000 soon, the long-term chart may turn bearish. The struggle in this price range is not only about short-term trends but may also determine whether Bitcoin can continue the bull market pattern since 2024.

Historical Correlation: Bitcoin’s Lag Effect After Gold’s New High

On April 17, the price of gold soared to a record high of $3,357 per ounce, sparking widespread market attention on Bitcoin's subsequent trend.

Historical data shows a significant lag correlation between gold and Bitcoin: whenever gold reaches a new high, Bitcoin usually follows and breaks through its previous high within 100-150 days.

For example, after gold rose by 30% in 2017, Bitcoin reached its historical peak of $19,120 in December of that year; after gold broke through $2,075 in 2020, Bitcoin rose to $69,000 in November 2021.

This correlation stems from their complementary roles during periods of economic uncertainty. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, usually reflects inflation expectations and monetary easing signals first; while Bitcoin, due to its supply rigidity and decentralized nature, becomes a latecomer under the "digital gold" narrative.

Bitcoin’s Lag Behind Gold: A Sign of Market Maturity

Theya Growth Officer Joe Consorti pointed out that Bitcoin's lag behind gold trends is related to its market maturity— institutional investors need more time to complete the allocation shift from traditional assets to crypto assets.

Currently, the surge in gold prices resonates with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz calls this phase the "Minsky Moment" of the U.S. economy, that is, the tipping point of unsustainable debt and collapsing market confidence. He believes that the synchronized strength of Bitcoin and gold reflects investors' concerns about the weakening dollar and the $35 trillion national debt, while tariff policies exacerbate the turmoil in the global economic order.

Cycle Model and Long-Term Forecast: Bitcoin’s "Power Law Curve" and $400,000 Target

Despite short-term volatility, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Anonymous analyst apsk32, based on the "power law curve time profile" model, predicts that Bitcoin will enter a parabolic growth phase in the second half of 2025, with a target price as high as $400,000.

The model normalizes Bitcoin's market value with that of gold and measures Bitcoin's value in terms of gold ounces, revealing the potential valuation logic of its "digital gold" status.

Historical Cycle Patterns Support the Forecast

Bitcoin’s price and hash rate chart.

Historical cycle patterns also support this forecast. Bitcoin’s halving effect (every four years) usually triggers a bull market 12-18 months later, and the halving event in April 2024 may show its power in the third to fourth quarter of 2025.

Institutional Investors Continue to Accumulate Bitcoin

In the meantime, institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin through compliant tools such as ETFs. As of February 2025, the total net asset value of BTC ETFs has reached $93.6 billion, further consolidating its position as a mainstream asset.

However, the market also needs to be wary of the "expectation overshoot" risk. The current bull market is mainly driven by institutional hoarding and ETF funds, with retail participation remaining low. The balance of BTC on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, and the risk of a liquidity trap is increasing. If Bitcoin fails to expand into more application scenarios (such as payments, smart contracts), its valuation may face downward pressure.

Policy Variables: Tariffs, Liquidity Crisis, and Market Restructuring

In April 2025, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods soared to 104%, and countries such as Japan and Canada also faced high tariff shocks. This policy not only increased global inflation expectations but also reshaped the pattern of capital flows. Bloomberg data shows that tariffs have caused U.S. prices to rise by about 2.5%, with average household spending increasing by nearly $4,000 per year. To cope with economic pressure, the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart quantitative easing, and the over-issuance of currency will further strengthen Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative.

Tariff policies also highlight Bitcoin's decentralized advantages. Against the backdrop of traditional cross-border payments being blocked, stablecoins (such as USDT) have become tools for emerging markets to evade capital controls due to their low cost and instant settlement characteristics. For example, the premium rate of stablecoins in countries such as Argentina and Turkey has long remained at 5-8%, reflecting the urgent demand under fiat currency credit crises.

However, the short-term market fluctuations triggered by tariffs should not be ignored. On April 9, the price of Bitcoin once fell to $80,000, with a daily drop of 7%, and the derivatives market saw a single-day liquidation of more than $1 billion. This volatility indicates that Bitcoin has not yet completely shaken off the "high-risk asset" label, and its price is still violently affected by macro sentiment and leveraged liquidations.

Conclusion: Asset Allocation Logic in the New Economic Paradigm

The core contradiction of the current market lies in the mismatch between policy expectation overshoot and endogenous momentum. Bitcoin's long-term value depends on the dual tests of regulatory frameworks and technological bottlenecks.

Investors need to clearly recognize that 2025-2026 may be Bitcoin's "last hurrah."

In this changing situation, the complementarity between gold and Bitcoin is becoming more and more evident. Gold, with its historical consensus and liquidity advantages, remains the ultimate safe-haven choice in a crisis; while Bitcoin has verified its "Digital Gold 2.0" attribute through "de-correlation" and has become a core asset in a diversified investment portfolio.

For ordinary investors, a combination of physical gold and mainstream cryptocurrencies, along with attention to the "wronged opportunities" in emerging market bonds, may be the best strategy to withstand the turmoil.

History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Whether it is Bitcoin's $85,000 turning point or gold's new high of $3,357, these numbers are all a microcosm of the reconstruction of the global economic order. Only by maintaining rationality and foresight can one capture new opportunities in uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s Price Struggle Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

In April 2025, the price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate within the range of $83,000 to $85,200, failing to break through the key resistance level of $86,000. This price volatility is closely related to the subtle changes in macroeconomic data.

Gold’s $3,357 Spell: The Cryptocurrency Law That Guarantees Bitcoin’s New High Within 5 Months

On April 17, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims was 215,000, lower than the market expectation of 225,000. This indicates that the labor market remains resilient. This data is seen as an important signal of the stability of the U.S. economy but also reduces market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, thereby suppressing short-term speculative sentiment in risky assets.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized in his speech on April 16 that the recent implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" policy in the United States far exceeded expectations and could lead to the dual pressures of rising inflation and slowing economic growth.

At the same time, Trump said at a press conference: "I think he (Powell) is terrible, but I can't complain," and pointed out that the economy was very strong during his first term. Trump continued to complain about Powell, saying that he believes the Fed chairman is "playing politics" and that Powell is "someone I never really liked."

Trump then said: "I think Powell will cut interest rates sooner or later. The only thing Powell is good at is cutting interest rates."

Despite the Federal Reserve's clear statement that it will not intervene in the market or implement interest rate cuts, the European Central Bank has taken the lead in lowering interest rates from 2.50% to 2.25%, the lowest since the end of 2022, in an attempt to mitigate the impact of tariff policies on the economy. This divergence in global monetary policy further increases market uncertainty and prompts investors to reassess the safe-haven attributes of assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin at a Critical "Turning Point"

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is at a crucial "turning point." Anonymous trader Titan of Crypto pointed out that the BTC price continues to contract within a triangular pattern, with the RSI indicator above 50 and attempting to break through resistance levels, suggesting an imminent directional breakout. Order flow analyst Magus believes that if Bitcoin fails to break through $85,000 soon, the long-term chart may turn bearish. The struggle in this price range is not only about short-term trends but may also determine whether Bitcoin can continue the bull market pattern since 2024.

Historical Correlation: Bitcoin’s Lag Effect After Gold’s New High

On April 17, the price of gold soared to a record high of $3,357 per ounce, sparking widespread market attention on Bitcoin's subsequent trend.

Historical data shows a significant lag correlation between gold and Bitcoin: whenever gold reaches a new high, Bitcoin usually follows and breaks through its previous high within 100-150 days.

For example, after gold rose by 30% in 2017, Bitcoin reached its historical peak of $19,120 in December of that year; after gold broke through $2,075 in 2020, Bitcoin rose to $69,000 in November 2021.

This correlation stems from their complementary roles during periods of economic uncertainty. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, usually reflects inflation expectations and monetary easing signals first; while Bitcoin, due to its supply rigidity and decentralized nature, becomes a latecomer under the "digital gold" narrative.

Bitcoin’s Lag Behind Gold: A Sign of Market Maturity

Theya Growth Officer Joe Consorti pointed out that Bitcoin's lag behind gold trends is related to its market maturity— institutional investors need more time to complete the allocation shift from traditional assets to crypto assets.

Currently, the surge in gold prices resonates with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz calls this phase the "Minsky Moment" of the U.S. economy, that is, the tipping point of unsustainable debt and collapsing market confidence. He believes that the synchronized strength of Bitcoin and gold reflects investors' concerns about the weakening dollar and the $35 trillion national debt, while tariff policies exacerbate the turmoil in the global economic order.

Cycle Model and Long-Term Forecast: Bitcoin’s "Power Law Curve" and $400,000 Target

Despite short-term volatility, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. Anonymous analyst apsk32, based on the "power law curve time profile" model, predicts that Bitcoin will enter a parabolic growth phase in the second half of 2025, with a target price as high as $400,000.

The model normalizes Bitcoin's market value with that of gold and measures Bitcoin's value in terms of gold ounces, revealing the potential valuation logic of its "digital gold" status.

Historical Cycle Patterns Support the Forecast

Bitcoin’s price and hash rate chart.

Historical cycle patterns also support this forecast. Bitcoin’s halving effect (every four years) usually triggers a bull market 12-18 months later, and the halving event in April 2024 may show its power in the third to fourth quarter of 2025.

Institutional Investors Continue to Accumulate Bitcoin

In the meantime, institutional investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin through compliant tools such as ETFs. As of February 2025, the total net asset value of BTC ETFs has reached $93.6 billion, further consolidating its position as a mainstream asset.

However, the market also needs to be wary of the "expectation overshoot" risk. The current bull market is mainly driven by institutional hoarding and ETF funds, with retail participation remaining low. The balance of BTC on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since 2018, and the risk of a liquidity trap is increasing. If Bitcoin fails to expand into more application scenarios (such as payments, smart contracts), its valuation may face downward pressure.

Policy Variables: Tariffs, Liquidity Crisis, and Market Restructuring

In April 2025, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods soared to 104%, and countries such as Japan and Canada also faced high tariff shocks. This policy not only increased global inflation expectations but also reshaped the pattern of capital flows. Bloomberg data shows that tariffs have caused U.S. prices to rise by about 2.5%, with average household spending increasing by nearly $4,000 per year. To cope with economic pressure, the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart quantitative easing, and the over-issuance of currency will further strengthen Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative.

Tariff policies also highlight Bitcoin's decentralized advantages. Against the backdrop of traditional cross-border payments being blocked, stablecoins (such as USDT) have become tools for emerging markets to evade capital controls due to their low cost and instant settlement characteristics. For example, the premium rate of stablecoins in countries such as Argentina and Turkey has long remained at 5-8%, reflecting the urgent demand under fiat currency credit crises.

However, the short-term market fluctuations triggered by tariffs should not be ignored. On April 9, the price of Bitcoin once fell to $80,000, with a daily drop of 7%, and the derivatives market saw a single-day liquidation of more than $1 billion. This volatility indicates that Bitcoin has not yet completely shaken off the "high-risk asset" label, and its price is still violently affected by macro sentiment and leveraged liquidations.

Conclusion: Asset Allocation Logic in the New Economic Paradigm

The core contradiction of the current market lies in the mismatch between policy expectation overshoot and endogenous momentum. Bitcoin's long-term value depends on the dual tests of regulatory frameworks and technological bottlenecks.

Investors need to clearly recognize that 2025-2026 may be Bitcoin's "last hurrah."

In this changing situation, the complementarity between gold and Bitcoin is becoming more and more evident. Gold, with its historical consensus and liquidity advantages, remains the ultimate safe-haven choice in a crisis; while Bitcoin has verified its "Digital Gold 2.0" attribute through "de-correlation" and has become a core asset in a diversified investment portfolio.

For ordinary investors, a combination of physical gold and mainstream cryptocurrencies, along with attention to the "wronged opportunities" in emerging market bonds, may be the best strategy to withstand the turmoil.

History does not simply repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Whether it is Bitcoin's $85,000 turning point or gold's new high of $3,357, these numbers are all a microcosm of the reconstruction of the global economic order. Only by maintaining rationality and foresight can one capture new opportunities in uncertainty.