If you enjoy Qingtian's content, follow, repost, and like this article. Send me a private message to receive a free position strategy layout and a practical tutorial guide on naked candlestick analysis. A seasoned trader with "depth of thought, warmth of emotion, and breadth of data." WeChat: ct6781235

Let's talk about the Bitcoin market in 2025—it's been quite a rollercoaster ride. At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin prices surged, reaching $109,500, only to experience a sharp decline shortly thereafter, sending the market into a "catch-up" adjustment phase. Let's discuss the current market situation from three perspectives.

Firstly, from a historical cycle perspective.

Bitcoin underwent a halving in 2024, and by all logic, prices should have continued to rise. However, to everyone's surprise, prices fell by 26%. Nonetheless, on-chain data reveals that this decline was primarily a technical adjustment rather than a result of panic selling. Using a power-law model, it's evident that Bitcoin's current price is lower than its historical average, suggesting that this downturn might be laying the groundwork for future price increases.

Secondly, there's a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.

The interplay of Bitcoin halving, institutional investment, and macroeconomic policies has created a stalemate. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and trade frictions, the market is oscillating, with $80,000 becoming a critical psychological threshold. Bitcoin is sometimes perceived as a high-risk asset, other times as a safe haven, and its short-term price fluctuations are largely influenced by market sentiment.

Thirdly, there are numerous uncertainties.

US-China tariffs, the risk of economic recession, and the market's institutionalization, which has altered market cycles, could all potentially disrupt the trajectory of a traditional bull market. While some are optimistic, believing Bitcoin could reach 150,000to200,000 by the second half of the year, others are apprehensive about further price declines. The market's direction will ultimately depend on capital flows, policies, and the outcome of psychological battles among investors.

Bitcoin's upward trajectory has never been easy, and 2025 is no exception. As investors navigate this volatile market, patience and long-term holding might be the best strategies to weather market cycles.

[Image]

The White House has indicated that Trump is willing to reach an agreement with China, signaling a softer stance. Let's see how this develops. Bitcoin prices peaked at around 84,300at2AM,unabletobreach85,000, suggesting there might not be any significant negative news by the end of the month.

However, this doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin will continue to rise. Regardless of any positive news, if prices continue to climb, those who bought the dip around 75,000willlikelysell,cappingfurtherpriceincreases.Evenif85,000 is breached and sustained, there's still the $87,700 resistance level, which hasn't been broken before, indicating a high probability of continued volatility.

At the end of the month, GDP and PCE data will be released, particularly GDP, which could trigger risk-averse sentiment. Looking ahead, May will see the release of April's inflation and employment data, all of which will influence the broader market environment.

Inflation data includes tariffs, and current macroeconomic indicators and market performance suggest an economic slowdown. If Federal Reserve Chairman Powell puts interest rate cuts on the agenda, most will interpret this as a response to recession fears, different from last September's rate cut rationale. Such a desperate rate cut would not be good news for risk markets like US stocks and Bitcoin.

The "June rate cut" is now a focal point of market attention.

But this expectation could be a "sugar-coated bullet." The key isn't when the rate cut happens but why the Fed is cutting rates. If it's due to controlled inflation and a smooth economic transition, a rate cut would be positive. However, if Powell hints at "increased recession risks" during a press conference, the market will immediately perceive this as a warning sign.

Historically, when rate cuts are associated with recession fears, the cryptocurrency market experiences a rollercoaster ride, initially rising and then plummeting. Institutions take advantage of positive news to sell their holdings, leaving retail investors to bear the brunt.

If you enjoy Qingtian's content, follow, repost, and like this article. Send me a private message to receive a free position strategy layout and a practical tutorial guide on naked candlestick analysis. A seasoned trader with "depth of thought, warmth of emotion, and breadth of data." WeChat: ct6781235

Let's talk about the Bitcoin market in 2025—it's been quite a rollercoaster ride. At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin prices surged, reaching $109,500, only to experience a sharp decline shortly thereafter, sending the market into a "catch-up" adjustment phase. Let's discuss the current market situation from three perspectives.

Firstly, from a historical cycle perspective.

Bitcoin underwent a halving in 2024, and by all logic, prices should have continued to rise. However, to everyone's surprise, prices fell by 26%. Nonetheless, on-chain data reveals that this decline was primarily a technical adjustment rather than a result of panic selling. Using a power-law model, it's evident that Bitcoin's current price is lower than its historical average, suggesting that this downturn might be laying the groundwork for future price increases.

Secondly, there's a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces.

The interplay of Bitcoin halving, institutional investment, and macroeconomic policies has created a stalemate. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and trade frictions, the market is oscillating, with $80,000 becoming a critical psychological threshold. Bitcoin is sometimes perceived as a high-risk asset, other times as a safe haven, and its short-term price fluctuations are largely influenced by market sentiment.

Thirdly, there are numerous uncertainties.

US-China tariffs, the risk of economic recession, and the market's institutionalization, which has altered market cycles, could all potentially disrupt the trajectory of a traditional bull market. While some are optimistic, believing Bitcoin could reach 150,000to200,000 by the second half of the year, others are apprehensive about further price declines. The market's direction will ultimately depend on capital flows, policies, and the outcome of psychological battles among investors.

Bitcoin's upward trajectory has never been easy, and 2025 is no exception. As investors navigate this volatile market, patience and long-term holding might be the best strategies to weather market cycles.

[Image]

The White House has indicated that Trump is willing to reach an agreement with China, signaling a softer stance. Let's see how this develops. Bitcoin prices peaked at around 84,300at2AM,unabletobreach85,000, suggesting there might not be any significant negative news by the end of the month.

However, this doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin will continue to rise. Regardless of any positive news, if prices continue to climb, those who bought the dip around 75,000willlikelysell,cappingfurtherpriceincreases.Evenif85,000 is breached and sustained, there's still the $87,700 resistance level, which hasn't been broken before, indicating a high probability of continued volatility.

At the end of the month, GDP and PCE data will be released, particularly GDP, which could trigger risk-averse sentiment. Looking ahead, May will see the release of April's inflation and employment data, all of which will influence the broader market environment.

Inflation data includes tariffs, and current macroeconomic indicators and market performance suggest an economic slowdown. If Federal Reserve Chairman Powell puts interest rate cuts on the agenda, most will interpret this as a response to recession fears, different from last September's rate cut rationale. Such a desperate rate cut would not be good news for risk markets like US stocks and Bitcoin.

The "June rate cut" is now a focal point of market attention.

But this expectation could be a "sugar-coated bullet." The key isn't when the rate cut happens but why the Fed is cutting rates. If it's due to controlled inflation and a smooth economic transition, a rate cut would be positive. However, if Powell hints at "increased recession risks" during a press conference, the market will immediately perceive this as a warning sign.

Historically, when rate cuts are associated with recession fears, the cryptocurrency market experiences a rollercoaster ride, initially rising and then plummeting. Institutions take advantage of positive news to sell their holdings, leaving retail investors to bear the brunt.