Welcome to the Era of Hyper-Speculative Capitalism

Watch global M2 money supply around mid-September; it may determine whether Bitcoin’s 2025 bull run ends in a crescendo or a correction.

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1. A Fractured Macro Backdrop

• The U.S. is running a 7 % of GDP fiscal deficit while at full employment.

• Policy rates remain at 5 %, yet Bitcoin flirts with all-time highs.

• Monetary policy has been eclipsed by fiscal dominance; stimulus persists even in “boom” conditions.

The upshot: markets no longer price fundamentals; they price liquidity.

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2. Bitcoin’s Parabola—Rational in a Chaotic World?

BTC no longer needs a weak economy or rate cuts. Its ideal macro setting is simply no new shocks and ever-improving liquidity.

Liquidity is surging:

• Global M2 is still elevated and may have topped out.

• A mere 10 % BTC spike would liquidate > $13 bn in shorts—ample fuel for a melt-up.

• Historically, BTC peaks 525–530 days post-halving. Counting from April 2024 lands us on ~21 September 2025 .

@MintedMacro’s roadmap:

| Cycle | Peak after Halving | Date |

|---|---|---|

| 2013 | 525 days | Dec 2013 |

| 2017 | 530 days | Dec 2017 |

| 2021 | 518 days | Nov 2021 |

| 2025 | ~525 days | ~21 Sep 2025 |

Projected top range: $135 k – $150 k

Macro tightening is the only cap on this ceiling.

Key takeaway: Expect a September blow-off, then a liquidity-driven pullback.

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3. Bitcoin Heat-Map: Institutional & Regulatory Signals

Regulation & Payments

• SEC launches a “Crypto Initiative” to tighten oversight and cement U.S. digital-finance leadership.

• PayPal rolls out crypto checkout for U.S. businesses, supporting 100 tokens.

• Visa expands stablecoin settlement rails.

Institution Flows

• Strategy Inc. adds $739.8 m BTC, bringing its stack to $43 bn, and files a preferred-share IPO.

• Tether reports Q2 profit of $4.9 bn on BTC & gold demand.

• SharpLink Gaming scoops up 438 k ETH ($295 m), becoming the second-largest corporate holder.

NFT Corner

• July NFT sales hit $574 m—2025’s second-highest month. CryptoPunks floor soars to $208 k, a three-year high.

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4. Macro Dashboard (through 3 Aug 2025)

United States

• Growth is decelerating fast; consumers are tightening credit even with healthy balance sheets.

• Housing affordability hits record lows—53 % of median income now required to own a mid-tier home (Atlanta Fed).

Global Central Banks

• Diverging paths: BoJ, BoC, Brazil, Colombia, Singapore hold; Chile & South Africa cut 25 bps.

• Eurozone Q2 GDP +0.1 % q/q; core inflation sticky at 2.3 % y/y.

• China’s July PMI disappoints; regional demand & supply chains at risk.

Fed Watch

• Fed keeps rates at 4.25 %–4.50 % for a fifth straight meeting.

• September is “live” but not guaranteed; officials want clearer labor, inflation and spending data.

Policy hinges on how deep the slowdown goes and whether inflation keeps cooling without triggering a recession.

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5. Trade & Geopolitics Quick-Hits

U.S.–Japan Tariff Deal

• New 15 % blanket tariff on Japanese goods (was 10 %).

• Autos & parts now uniform 15 % (was 27.5 %).

• Japan pledges “up to” $550 bn U.S. investment—details scant, no treaty signed yet.

• U.S. automakers face higher input costs (25 % on parts, 50 % on steel/al) while Japanese exporters enjoy a lighter lift—domestic industry cries foul.

Manufacturing Repatriation

• Bringing plants back to the U.S. collides with labor shortages and tighter immigration—jobs may stay unfilled.

Bottom line: The market is adapting to a world where distorted fundamentals and tidal liquidity steer price action. Keep your eyes on mid-September—both for M2 prints and for Bitcoin’s date with cycle history.