Despite the hype surrounding a potential crypto boom in the "Trump era," Bitcoin has underperformed nearly all major asset classes. Reflecting on its performance so far in 2025, this year can be called a "year of disappointment."

Since the U.S. presidential inauguration in January, Bitcoin has delivered a return of only about 5.8%. In contrast, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes have achieved double-digit gains, and even gold, a classic safe-haven asset, has significantly outperformed Bitcoin.

Investors who anticipated a "Trump trade" boost now face a harsh reality: unfavorable macro conditions, capital rotation into AI stocks, and profit-taking by long-term holders have largely capped Bitcoin’s upside for most of the year.

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The $100,000 Resistance Level

The key question on everyone’s mind is: Why can’t Bitcoin break through?

Simply put, $100,000 has become a psychological profit-taking zone. On-chain data shows that whenever Bitcoin approaches this level, selling by long-term holders increases significantly.

These individuals—early adopters, whales, and steadfast supporters—are not panic selling. They are simply de-risking and reallocating funds to other outperforming sectors, such as AI and tech stocks. Each time Bitcoin approaches $100,000, it triggers a wave of selling: not out of fear, but for profit-taking.

This has created structural selling pressure, making it difficult for Bitcoin to sustain new highs.

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Weak Demand and Market Structure

Another reason for the market slump is weak demand. Bitcoin is currently trading below the cost basis of short-term holders—around $106,100 (as of October 30)—and struggling to maintain levels above $110,000. This can be referred to as the 0.85 support level.

This is significant because historically, when Bitcoin fails to hold this range, it often signals a deeper correction—potentially to $97,000, where the 0.75 support level lies.

This pattern has already appeared three times in the current cycle: a strong rally, exhaustion of demand, followed by prolonged consolidation.

In short, the market needs a reset. There are no signs of large-scale new capital inflows. Retail sentiment remains subdued, and institutional investors are cautious. Without fresh demand, every rally fades faster than the last.

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Miners and Macro Factors

Miners and macroeconomic conditions have added further pressure.

Starting with miners: After the Bitcoin halving, profit margins for miners have been squeezed. Many have been forced to sell portions of their holdings to cover operational costs. Combined with rising U.S. real yields earlier this year, miners have shifted from net buyers to net sellers.

On the macro front, September’s lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data provided some relief, mainly due to easing housing inflation. This has given the Fed room to cut rates in October and December, which the market has largely priced in.

If this easing cycle materializes, it could boost risk sentiment by the end of Q4. However, so far, this optimism has not translated into Bitcoin’s strength: liquidity conditions remain tight, and capital continues to flow into high-beta AI stocks rather than crypto assets.

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The Options Boom and Market Evolution

A major structural change this year has emerged in the derivatives market. Bitcoin options open interest has hit record highs and continues to grow. This is actually a positive sign of market maturation.

It has also altered investor behavior. Instead of directly selling spot Bitcoin, investors are using options to hedge risks or bet on volatility.

This reduces direct selling pressure in the spot market but amplifies short-term volatility. Now, every sharp price move triggers hedging activities by traders, intensifying intraday fluctuations.

The market is entering a new phase where price movements are more influenced by derivatives positioning than long-term conviction. This indicates that Bitcoin has become a fully financialized macro asset.

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Where Are We in the Cycle?

Taken together, the current phase appears to be a late-cycle consolidation. Long-term holders are de-risking, miners are selling, short-term buyers are at a loss, and derivatives are dominating.

This combination typically leads to prolonged consolidation before the next significant rally. Historically, Bitcoin thrives after cyclical resets—weak hands exit, strong hands rebuild positions, and macro liquidity eventually returns.

Right now, the market is in a rebuilding phase.

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The Path Ahead

So, what’s next? The $97,000–$100,000 range will be critical. If Bitcoin can hold this level through two Fed meetings, the outlook for early 2026 appears optimistic—especially if rate cuts and fiscal expansion reignite risk appetite.

However, if this support breaks, it could trigger a capitulation-style sell-off before the next rally—similar to the corrections in 2019 and mid-2022.

The key takeaway: This is not a crash, but a recalibration. Bitcoin’s underperformance this year stems not from weak fundamentals, but from capital rotation and the natural volatility of a maturing asset class.

Once macro conditions turn favorable again, Bitcoin is poised to reclaim its status as the premier high-beta safe-haven asset in global markets.